The meteorological department of India has predicted a near normal monsoon rain during June-September. Indication of a normal monsoon was earlier evident from the forecasts made for different Asian countries
, and also from the summary of global forecast made by the US-based International Research Institute for climate change (IRI) which indicated that the El Nino factor would be neutral by mid-2004.
The US-based organizations like the National Centre for Environment Prediction (NCEP) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have also predicted "near neutral condition" in the Pacific , particularly in the equatorial belt.
The El Nino phenomena had been one of the reasons for the failure of monsoon rains for two-three years in Pakistan, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan. However, in 2003, chiefly, these two provinces enjoyed sufficient rains when the La Nino factor was prevalent.
According to the Indian industry official following good monsoon rain it will become easier for the government to take a decision in favour of the uninterrupted grain export. Good rains are vital to India's economic health with the farm sector generating almost a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP).
The importance of advance monsoon forecast, particularly for farming communities in Pakistan could be gauged from the last year's experience when in the absence of a forecast majority of poor growers, particularly from the upper Sindh, undertook cotton crop cultivation in low lying areas of the cotton belt which submerges under rain water in case of good monsoon.
There the growers remained under the impression that the prevailing drought like situation would continue. However, contrary to this both Sindh and Balochistan received good monsoon rains.
As expected the cotton crop in low lying areas submerged under the rain water sustaining severe damage. In rice growing belt of upper Sindh the absence of advance forecast of 2003 monsoon by the meteorological department allowed widespread damage to basmati variety rice crop by the leaf-folder-pest.
Reportedly, the rice leaf-folder inflicted severe damage to the crop in Jaffrabad and Nasirabad districts in Balochistan. Like the leaf-folder rice pest, heavy monsoons during the Kharif 2003 led to extensive insurgence of bollworms, particularly armyworm inflicting colossal damage to cotton crop, both in Sindh and southern Punjab cotton belt.
Fortunately, last year's monsoon did not allow locust outbreak, mainly because of the almost nil population of this pest in the entire locust breeding areas of Sindh, Punjab and Balochistan, including the neighbouring Islamic Republic of Iran which was of course following almost the same situation as was in Pakistan.
However, the ravages could be gauged from the fact that in February this year, the drought breaking rains brought billions of locusts to life which first swarmed along a 1200km front from the South-West Queensland State of Australia to the central New South Wales town of Dubbo, across an area twice the size of England.
The move to major cities by the crop-devastating insect widened the battle front in Australia's three months effort to contain the swarms. The El Nino phenomenon is likely to be neutralized by mid-2004, according to the US-based IRI forecast for different Asian countries.
But, in the backdrop of April 2004 rains in Punjab and the NWFP the apprehensions that this year too, Sindh and Balochistan will receive heavy rains appear true. This in turn will inflict damage to the cotton crop if cultivated in low lying areas.
Besides, heavy monsoon rains like the previous year may allow the insurgence of leaf-folder pest in rice crop and army worm in cotton. Since, agriculture is the backbone of our economy it is imperative that the Meteorological Department of Pakistan must give advance forecast about the monsoon as is being practised in India. This will help the farming communities, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan, and the concerned agencies to plan a strategy in advance.
