| 24 April 2004 | Saturday | 03 Rabi-ul-Awwal 1425 |
Crucial referendum in Cyprus
LAHORE: Exiled PML-N president Mian Shahbaz Sharif appears determined to come back to Pakistan in May. He is said to be prepared to face all consequences ranging from arrest to deportation.
His return, specially if it is with the consent of his elder brother Mian Nawaz Sharif who is still in Saudi Arabia along with his family, and the possible treatment he gets at the hands of the government, may shed some light on the so far mysterious agreement on the basis of which the Sharifs were asked (or allowed) to leave the country over three years ago.
The government has been consistently arguing that under the accord, the Sharifs cannot enter Pakistan for 10 years. And on various occasions, the deposed prime minister was reported to have said that he would not like to take any step which could cause embarrassment to his Saudi hosts. These remarks always gave an impression that there was something, though not known to everyone, that restricted the Sharifs' freedom to act and move.
Leaders of the PML- N have sent their recommendations to the former premier for a final decision. Ostensibly, this course has been adopted to get the Saudi government's approval before the younger Sharif undertakes a risky political journey. In case the return plan is approved by the Saudi authorities, it would indicate a sea change in their thinking.
It was in the last quarter of the previous year that the late Nawabzada Nasrullah Khan had visited London and Jeddah to persuade both Ms Benazir Bhutto and Mian Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan and play their role in national affairs.
The nawabzada said he was told by Nawaz Sharif that Crown Prince Abdullah had personally asked Gen Musharraf to allow the exiled family to return home, and in reply the general was said to have opposed the suggestion on the ground that it would translate into destabilizing the nascent local government system, which the country could not afford.
Is the system now stable enough to survive the possible return of the Sharifs? Or has the Saudi government allowed the Sharifs to do as they like, despite the Pakistan government's reservations?
A strange coincidence is it that Mian Shahbaz plans to come back from exile in almost the same circumstances in which Ms Benazir Bhutto had returned from self-exile on April 10, 1986.
A general was both president and the army chief and PML chief Muhammad Khan Junejo was the prime minister. Mian Nawaz Sharif was then the Punjab chief minister. A sea of people had turned out at the Lahore airport to receive Ms Bhutto.
Now that Mian Shahbaz is planning to come back, a general is again president, and PML leaders are prime minister and Punjab chief minister. Whether the Sharifs come back today, tomorrow or the day after, the government has started taking steps to strengthen its political position.
It wants to relegate the opposition into the background through political means. And the National Alliance's decision to merge with the unified PML is a step in this direction.
An important PML leader claims that at some appropriate time Mr Farooq Ahmed Khan Leghari would be asked to replace Prime Minister Jamali. This leader says that Mr Leghari has been looking at the prospect for quite some time and, if an offer is made for the coveted office, he will not refuse.
With Gen Musharraf as president, Mr Leghari as prime minister and Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain as head of the ruling party, PML leaders say it would not be difficult for them to take on their political rivals, specially the PML-N and the PPP.
Millat Party secretary-general Senator Muhammad Ali Durrani, however, doesn't agree with this view. He says the merger decision was taken to stabilize the system and induct such elements into it as could contain destablizing factors. He said Mr Leghari was not a candidate for any office and that all decisions for the future would be taken on the basis of merit.
Senator Durrani believes that the merger of the National Alliance with the united PML would give positive results in the local government elections due next year. By the time the general elections are held, he argues, the PML's position would become even stronger and the PPP of Ms Benazir Bhutto would be routed even in its strongholds in Sindh.
To enable Gen Musharraf to play an effective role even after stepping down as army chief, efforts are being made to entrust the chairmanship of the ruling party to him. The general has already said he is keeping his options open.
Though some people point out that under the Constitution, the president of the country is supposed to be the symbol of national unity and cannot favour one party against the other, PML leaders argue that the basic law does not debar him from heading a political party.
They think that Gen Musharraf and Mr Leghari together will be able to effectively counter their political opponents.
Crucial referendum in Cyprus
In order to assess the events in Cyprus as the Mediterranean island gets ready to participate in a referendum on the unification of the Turkish and Greek-dominated territories today, April 24, a short background to the current circumstances would be in order.
Cypriots from both sides will cast their votes in favour of or against a UN peace plan seeking an end to the longstanding division of the island. The UN move came in the wake of the failure of reunification talks between the Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders urged to reach a settlement before the EU accession deadline of May 1, 2004.
Both sides held many rounds of talks in Cyprus in the presence of Alvaro De Soto, the UN Secretary General's special envoy and a representative of the European Union. However, both sides locked horns over the issues of refugees, settlers, property and the presence of Turkish army troops on the island. As per the UN plan, as many as 50,000 Greeks would return to their homes located in the Turkish part.
The Turkish side has raised the question of the genuineness of the elections envisaged in the UN plan which states: "The common state parliament shall be composed of two chambers: the senate and the chamber of deputies.
Each chamber shall have 48 members, elected for five years on the basis of proportional representation." It further states, "The senate shall be composed of an equal number of senators from each (component state). The people of each (component state) shall elect, on a proportional basis, 24 members of the senate".
The Greeks returning to their homes in North Cyprus would certainly take part in the formation of parliament, and quite understandably, they would cast their votes for the candidates from the Greek community. That would tilt the balance in favour of the Greeks, giving them the upper hand in both houses of parliament.
The Greek side is still unwilling to recognize the status of the settlers and insists that they cannot take part in any electoral exercise nor live on the island once an agreement is reached. The Turkish side did not want to make any compromises on this issue.
The presence of Turkish army troops on the island was another item on which both sides could not reach a consensus. The Turkish side wants the forces to remain on the island for the sake of political stability and cohesion, a stance rejected by the Greeks who say that there is no question of having foreign troops on the territory of a country which is a member of the European Union. The UN plan, however, allows the presence of 7,000 Turkish army troops for a specific period after which they would leave the island.
The Greek and Turkish sides met in Switzerland in March in order to thrash out differences but no headway could be made. The guarantor powers, Turkey and Greece, were also invited by the UN to participate in the talks with the hope that both countries would exert pressure on Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders for a solution.
That drill, unfortunately, proved an exercise in futility forcing UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to take the unilateral decision of putting the plan to the people of both communities.
However, with both the Turkish and Greek Cypriot leaders rejecting the plan, the outcome is uncertain. Tassos Papadopoulos, the Greek Cypriot president, has said to his people, "I call on you to reject the Annan plan.
I call on you to say a strong 'no' on April 24. I call on you to protect your rights, your dignity and your history." Terming the plan as "dangerously vague", he said that the deal heavily favoured the Turks and would lead to a "paralysis of the new state" as well as herald the economic collapse of wealthy Greek Cypriots.
Papadopoulos has not endeared himself to Europe and the international community, who wholeheartedly back the peace plan aimed at reunifying the island. Moreover, the United Nations has stressed that if the plan is rejected there will be "no second bite of the cherry".
Furthermore, Athens seems unlikely to reject the plan, which leaves Papadopoulos isolated. The Greek opposition party PASOK backed a "yes" vote and urged the Greek Cypriots to do the same. If Cyprus is not reunified by May 1, only the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot south of the island will join the European Union.
The Turkish Cypriot president, Rauf Denktash, has also rejected the UN plan and has reportedly asked his people to say "no". However, judging by the December 2004 election results in North Cyprus, it is very likely that the Turkish Cypriots will say "yes". If they do, this will improve Turkey's chances for the start of EU accession negotiations even if there is no solution.
Recent meetings with key figures in Brussels dealing with the subject of Turkey's accession to the European Union gave the impression that there was a lot of goodwill for the current Turkish government and that the EU was eager to open negotiations with Turkey on entry into its ranks.
In a meeting with this scribe, Jean-Christophe Filori, spokesman for Gunther Verheugen, the EU commissioner for enlargement, said, "We believe that Turkey has made some serious efforts to meet the EU accession criteria and we are therefore convinced that EU can start talks with Turkey in January 2005."
He also said, "We had set a condition for Turkey to first solve the Cyprus issue prior to start of accession talks. But we can open talks even if there is no settlement by the stipulated date, since we are convinced Turkey has made all out efforts on her part, to get the issue resolved. And if the Turkish Cypriots say 'yes' to the UN plan in the proposed referendum, that would certainly strengthen the case of Turkey."
Perhaps, members of both communities should seize upon this golden opportunity to find a permanent solution to a long festering issue. Leaders from both sides should bear in mind that there is no other way out and sooner or later, this issue will have to be resolved.
ansarbhatti2001@yahoo.co.uk.