12 April 2004	Monday	21 Safar 1425

BAGHDAD, April 11: The US-led coalition's harsh crackdown on Sunni and Shia guerillas has stirred up a hornets' nest among Islamic movements which are gaining popularity at a time when Iraq is facing a leadership vacuum.

Sporadic clashes broke out Sunday between US forces and guerillas in the besieged Sunni bastion of Fallujah where a truce was brokered mainly by the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party and the Committee of Muslim Scholars.

In the south, the Shia Daawa Islamic Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) were leading efforts to find a compromise between the US-led coalition and Moqtada Sadr. On the ground, Sadr's Mehdi Army militiamen have mushroomed in Baghdad's large Shia quarter and other southern cities while guerillas in Fallujah, or "the city of mosques," have driven the US army to accept mediation.

Portraits of Sadr and other leaders are the only portraits brandished at protests in Shia regions. Demonstrations in Sunni areas, which suffer more from the power vacuum, have pictures only of martyred Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin.

The crisis, the most serious since the United States and its allies occupied Iraq last spring, has left hundreds of Iraqis and dozens of coalition troops dead in a week. But it has also humbled the coalition, wary of exposing Iraq to an explosive situation in which the most effective and organized groups emanate from Islamic movements, whether moderate or radical.

"The Islamic movements are there, but the Americans have given them a chance to have an authority and play an even greater role this week. They gave them a boost," said Hazem al-Amin, an expert in Iraqi and Islamic affairs. "And this actually goes against the American plan for building a democratic, secular Iraq," he said. "There is no doubt that the Americans lost a lot and drove the country into a chaotic situation with an escalation of violence, political problems and hostage-takings," he said.

However, the analyst warned that "this does not mean that the Americans will stop going after anyone working against them, including Sadr whom they insist will have to surrender, be detained or killed."

"The Americans cannot hand over sovereignty to the Iraqis on the June 30 deadline while there are still problems with Sadr, the Mehdi Army and Sunni rebels," said Amin. For nearly four decades, Iraq was ruled by the iron-fist regime of the pan-Arab secular Baath party which did not tolerate the effective presence of any other political movement, still less religious weight.

Saddam's era was also marked by an iron-fist regime ruled by close aides with repressive policies, including the assassination of opponents. At the fall of the regime, Iraq seemed to be left leaderless, with a class of little-known technocrats or politicians returning from long years in exile with little popular power base.

A year later, the main parties whose voices seemed to be heard - especially in this week's amplified chorus of criticism against the US-led coalition and mediation efforts to resolve the crisis - were Islamic parties.

After the Baath and the other mainly Sunni pan-Arab Nasserite party were practically wiped out, the voices shattering the silence among the Sunni community were militants and mosque imams.

Among the Shias, there are few people with real political clout, but the weight focuses mostly on Shia parties and religious leaders. Historically, the Shia Marjaiya, the supreme religious authority, has been a religious guide, although also with great political weight.

But never before has the Marjaiya had such a direct decision-making role. Now, it has become a real player and an unavoidable negotiator. The spiritual leader of Iraq's majority Shias, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, has made himself a political force to be reckoned with. -AFP