DUBAI: As US forces battle on a new front in Iraq, Baghdad's Arab neighbours watch the escalating violence with alarm and a message that affords them only the grimmest satisfaction: "We told you so."
Arab leaders had said loudly and repeatedly that a US invasion of Iraq would unleash chaos in multi-ethnic Iraq and the region and open a Pandora's box of radicalism. With US-led forces now battling Shias in several cities, they now feel their ominous prophecy has come true.
The leaders fear that clashes between Shias loyal to firebrand Moqtada al Sadr and occupation forces could lead to civil war - and spill over their borders. "This is what we've been warning about. We told the Americans Saddam Hussein was only five per cent of the problem. The other 95 per cent just wasn't visible to them," a Gulf Arab diplomat said. "It's a very dangerous situation. It's painful."
Qatar, a staunch US ally, said it feared civil war could break out in Iraq and that the country was becoming a "fertile ground for (various) terrorists". "The developments in Iraq are alarming and we fear that we are facing a civil war in Iraq like Afghanistan and Lebanon," Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al Thani said.
"We cannot leave Iraq in this state because this disease will spread and I believe the situation is out of control." US troops in Iraq, under attack for a year by Sunnis and Saddam loyalists, now risk a major conflict with the Shias. They had been seen as allies in their opposition to Saddam Hussein, who brutally suppressed them.
IRAQ QUAGMIRE: "The Americans appear to be sinking into the Iraqi quagmire. I dread to think about the repercussions on the region in case Iraq disintegrates into wider chaos," said a Jordanian official.
Arab leaders worry that if the United States falters and Iraq degenerates they will be left with a failed state spreading instability and terror through the region.
"There are seeds for civil war. The ingredients are there - the trigger and the explosive - and this is bringing us nearer to civil war. There are three levels, Arabs against Kurds, Shias against Sunnis and everyone against the United States," said Mustafa Alani, of London's Royal United Services Institute.
Violence between Shias and US forces has led to suggestions that more troops might be sent in, but US President George W. Bush insists a transitional Iraqi government will take power as planned on June 30.
"If there is war between the Shias and Sunnis, then other countries, especially Iran, will decide at (some) stage to put in their weight and this will encourage other countries to do so too, like what happened in Lebanon," he added.
Soli Ozel, an associate fellow at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, said: "If Iraq falls apart other states will start backing their own groups and will suck everyone in. "I believe the genie is out of the bottle," he added.
Western diplomats say Saudi Arabia is troubled by its lack of leverage over events in its northern neighbour and fears the violence could have an impact on Sunni militants as well as incite the Saudi Shias.
Observers say militants continue to travel between Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which has come to be seen as a training ground for fighters who may one day return home to take on authorities in the kingdom, already battling a wave of violence by followers of Al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden. -Reuters
