14 March 2004	Sunday	22 Muharram 1425

LONDON/MADRID: The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre at Thames House, British counter intelligence's (MI5) London headquarters, met in emergency session as soon as they learned of the scale of the Madrid bombings.

They urgently tried to assess the implications for other European countries. For months, the security services expected a suicide bombing, and attacks on aircraft.

But if, as the group said on Friday, the Madrid bombs were not by Eta or an extreme fringe unit, but of terrorists with Al Qaeda links, then there is a more serious threat.

If the attacks were inspired by or linked to Al Qaeda, it would suggest not only a huge gap in intelligence, but evidence that Muslim fundamentalists are adopting new tactics.

Al Qaeda linked targets have in the past had some symbolic significance - a western bank in Istanbul, a tourist spot in Bali. The targets in Spain were packed commuter trains. And the attacks, as far as is known, were not by suicide bombers.

"If they decide to use rocket science, then that's something else again," said a security source referring to chemical, biological, and radiological weapons.

On Friday British security and intelligence officials were awaiting forensic tests on bomb fragments, and on bodies, which could provide clues to the perpetrators.

There is evidence pointing to ETA. Police in Madrid were on the alert for a terror attack on the day of the bombings, on the lookout for armed Basque separatists who had tried to drive a half-ton bomb, packed into a van, into Madrid two weeks earlier.

"Fortunately, ETA is weaker than ever and I have no doubt about its final defeat", Jose Maria Aznar, the Spanish prime minister, told a British newspaper 11 days ago.

Certainly Spain has been successful in degrading ETA. Perhaps Mr Aznar wanted to believe he had beaten Spain's main terror threat as he prepared to step down from office.

"We had certain indications, that ETA was still active. Intelligence told us that ETA wanted to strike back," a security source said on Friday. He added: "You can't keep a terrorist organization under permanent surveillance."

The Irish republican paramilitaries, even at its height, consisted of a relatively small number of people. Some of its attacks had been thwarted, he said, some had been successful.

"If it turns out to be Al Qaeda there will be a great deal of surprise," a Whitehall official said.

That was an understatement. For appalling though the Madrid bombings were, it would be easier, perhaps not for the Spanish, but for other security services, to accept.-Dawn/The Guardian News Service.