China walks a tightrope between US, N. Korea: Talks on nuclear programme
By Bill Smith
BEIJING: China's role in talks this week on North Korea's nuclear programme is somewhat like that of an acrobat cycling with one person standing on each shoulder.
Except that the two passengers may shift their positions or even argue during the performance.
"There is no trust between the United States and North Korea, and the two sides may fail in the talks at any time," Li Dunqiu, an expert on Korean affairs at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, told Deutsche Presse-Agentur.
"Solving the problem is mainly decided by the United States and North Korea, and China plays a very important role in avoiding any intensification (of conflict)."
One major difficulty facing diplomats is that North Korea displays a mixture of "soft and hard" policies, reflecting a similar approach by the United States, said Qi Baoliang of the Beijing-based Institute of Contemporary International Relations.
"Our expectations should not be too high," Qi warned in an interview broadcast by state television as the six-party talks began on Wednesday. "But North Korea has shown a change in attitude from its earlier outright hostility towards the United States.
This change in attitude has included a change in foreign policy," Qi said, citing as an example Pyongyang's willingness to propose its own solution to the standoff over its nuclear programme.
Libya's public abandonment of its nuclear programme and Iran's cooperation with international nuclear inspectors have also put 'great pressure' on North Korea. "But in my opinion, the DPRK (Democratic People's Republic of Korea) is not likely to give that up easily," Qi said.
The main hope at this week's talks is that the six parties will agree on a framework for ending North Korea's nuclear weapons programme, he said. "It is unrealistic for the DPRK to give up its nuclear weapons programmes all at once."
Most analysts agree with Qi, and Wang Yi, head of the Chinese delegation in the talks, that a six-party agreement on a mechanism or framework for future talks is the likely best outcome.
"At this round, the parties will discuss how to identify the specific objectives in resolving the nuclear issue and study ways to continue the process of the talks," Wang said in his speech at the opening of talks on Wednesday.
"Wang Yi and other Chinese diplomats made tremendous efforts in arranging the second round of talks with North Korean, US, South Korean, Japanese and Russian officials," said Wang Lunan of the International Studies University in the south western province of Sichuan.
Dozens of diplomatic exchanges since the first talks were held in Beijing last August have "softened the hardline stances" of North Korea and the United States, the official Xinhua news agency quoted Wang Lunan as saying.
China has "played a more active role in the global arena" in mediating the crisis over North Korea's nuclear programme, said Shen Jiru, a non-proliferation and arms control expert with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Beijing's efforts to promote peace and stability in East Asia are "also in China's own interests", Shen told the agency.
Senior US arms control official John Bolton agreed China made "very substantial efforts to get North Korea back to the table". "China has been in the lead in this activity among the six parties," Bolton said last week in Beijing.
The success of the diplomatic efforts may depend on how North Korea and the United States handle a key dispute about whether North Korea runs both a plutonium-based programme and a highly-enriched uranium (HEU) programme.
In his opening remarks on Wednesday, US Assistant Secretary of State James Kelly said Washington "seeks complete, verifiable and irreversible dismantlement of all of the DPRK's nuclear programmes, including both plutonium and uranium based weapons".
Yet North Korea on Tuesday appeared to stick to its denial that it runs a uranium-enrichment facility. "If the United States continues to criticize North Korea for having a fictitious and non-existent highly-enriched uranium programme, this can only be taken as a deliberate attempt to prolong the nuclear issue," Xinhua quoted an unidentified North Korean foreign ministry spokesman as saying in Pyongyang.
"The key is that when it (the alleged HEU programme) is mentioned, the issue should not be intensified," Li said. "If they (North Korea and the United States) don't make it too extreme and confrontational, it will not have too much impact on the talks," Li said. "I guess China will grasp the degree of opposition, and will play a big role in this aspect."
If the talks do fall apart, "that will be sure to lead to upgraded confrontation" between North Korea and the United States, said Pang Zhongying of Tianjin-based Nankai University.
"On the one hand, the United States and Japan will submit the North Korean (nuclear) issue to the United Nations Security Council," the official China News Service quoted Pang as saying. "And on the other hand, it is believed that North Korea will show its comprehensive nuclear capability - if it really has the capability." -dpa
