18 February 2004	Wednesday	26 Zilhaj 1424

LAHORE, Feb 17: Tarbela may hit the dead level in a week as releases from it have been increased while the inflows are experiencing a dip. On Tuesday, the dam level stood at 1,405.58 feet - only 36.58 feet above the dead level - and it has been dropping at the rate of three feet a day with outflows going up to 60,000 cusecs.

According to Indus River System Authority (Irsa) criteria, the dam is supposed to last up to Feb 28. Though the dam level is slightly above the forecast, it could lose the last 20 feet very quickly as the lake narrows down towards the bottom.

It contained only 0.373 million acre feet of water on Tuesday. Irsa hopes that Kabul and Jhelum would rise by the beginning of March as temperatures start rising and snow starts melting. The combined inflow of Kabul, Jhelum and Indus would see the rest of Rabi season through.

The situation at Mangla was slightly better on Tuesday with the lake still holding 0.705maf water. Meanwhile, Irsa has convened a meeting on Feb 26 to assess the water situation.

It had earlier calculated a shortage of 15 per cent which, it hoped, would come down to eight per cent in the wake of recent rains. Last year, both dams had hit the dead level by Feb 20 but the rains came just in time and partially filled both the dams in addition to providing a second watering of the wheat crop.

But this year, the rains came early and increased the base flow of all rivers. With rain came snow which, Irsa hoped, could provide some relief in the late Rabi and early Kharif seasons.

It may be mentioned here that Tarbela used to last up to June 10 every year, but now it empties by mid-February because of the silt, which has reduced its capacity from 9.2 to 7.2 million acre feet of water.