TEHRAN: Conservatives poised to win Iran's parliamentary elections this Friday have a clear objective: reimpose clear political and social boundaries they feel have been damaged by the incumbent reformists , and focus on delivering a badly needed burst of economic development.

Not surprisingly, the talk is of hardliners here embracing the "Chinese model" - albeit with an Islamic twist. In recent weeks, the right-wing Kayhan newspaper espoused the example of Beijing in a commentary lashing out at Iran's reformers. "Chinese reforms", the paper argued, were what people in Iran needed - a focus on growth and jobs.

In contrast, Kayhan said, the reformists' four-year hold on parliament and their focus on social issues only resulted in political bickering, and ultimately a total stalemate while the economy was ignored.

For Amir Mohebian, an editor at the conservative Ressalat paper, the likely winners of Friday's elections do "want high economic growth, but that does not mean political repression."

Ahmad Tavakoli, a top member of the Coalition of Builders of Islamic Iran - a conservative bloc expected to do well in Friday's Majlis polls - was also keen to play down any suggestions of looking overseas for a political strategy.

He said he and his allies "take on board anything that is good, but the Islamic republic of Iran has its own identity and own values, and has no need to copy anyone" - even though the economy has become central in their bid to woo an electorate that has in the past voted en masse for political change.

"These questions are not priorities given the real problems of the country, notably economic," said the bloc's spokesman Gholam-Ali Hadad-Adel when asked about issues such as headscarfs for women or whether to allow Iranians to watch satellite television.

But if conservatives are looking to China's communists for ideas, there are catches. While all agree Iran's hardliners could excel at restricting political freedoms, improving an economy lumbering under state control and opening it up to crucial foreign investors may be a tough task.

Indeed, conservatives have in the past been blocking reformist efforts to introduce painful reforms needed before Iran can compete internationally and reduce its reliance on oil exports.

"The Chinese are able to get away with no progress on democracy because they have the economic clout and they can deliver huge levels of economic growth driven by the manufacturing industry," explained a senior European diplomat.

But the problem for Iran, he said, is that "outside the oil sector, the economy is stagnant and in desperate need of very difficult reforms. Iranian society is more open and better informed, and therefore tougher to discipline if things go badly on the economic front."

Some analysts fear conservatives may be tempted to spend the country's multi-billion-dollar stash built up on the back of high oil prices. If oil prices slip, the present annual economic growth rate here - which hovers around six or seven percent - could go down with them.

And according to liberal opposition leader Ebrahim Yazdi, "when it comes to repressing social freedoms, there would be problems." For analyst Said Leylaz, "the Chinese model is already being applied in some way", given that conservatives already wield power over most state institutions and the economy and that social regulations remain clearly defined.

"The conservatives will, without doubt, continue on this road. But maintaining high economic growth will be a problem - and if the conservatives do not manage to keep growth above six percent, there will be very serious social tensions." -AFP

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