05 February 2004	Thursday	13 Zilhaj 1424

NICOSIA: A major peace initiative from Turkey has left Greek Cypriots facing unaccustomed pressure for concessions on Cypriot reunification, but analysts say neither side has yet met UN conditions for resumed talks.

Turkey's call for renewed talks on UN chief Kofi Annan's 2002 peace plan has marked a major step forward, but the analysts warned that it was still far from clear that the powerful Turkish military is fully on board.

And the Greek Cypriot leadership is maintaining its refusal to agree to an April referendum on the blueprint, regardless of the outcome of any renewed talks.

"I think there is pressure exerted on both sides," one diplomat said. "The UN secretary general's conditions are crystal clear, and nobody is meeting them yet."

In Brussels last week, Annan said any talks must aim at a deal by the end of March, so referendums can be conducted in April and allow a reunited Cyprus to join the EU on May 1.

He said he needs to see the "necessary political will" from all parties before re-engaging in the search for a settlement.

Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when Turkey invaded and occupied the northern third of the island in response to a Greek Cypriot coup aimed at uniting it with Greece.

Annan was "encouraged" by what he heard from Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a tumultuous week of diplomatic activity to get chances for a settlement back on track.

In a breakthrough 10 months after Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash rejected Annan's plan with presumed approval from Ankara, Erdogan asked the UN chief to revive peace negotiations. That turned the tables on Papadopoulos, who had managed until then to avoid any real pressure from outside.

"Turkey was seen to be taking the initiative because it was a significant step forward from its previous position, but people are not 100 per cent sure what Turkey is saying," said the diplomat.

The EU had warned Turkey that its own European aspirations would be seriously dented if it did not help broker a peace deal.

In the eyes of many observers, Ankara got itself off the hook with its initiative, while the Greek Cypriots are floundering.

Although Papadopoulos asked Annan on Tuesday to give Cyprus talks "another chance," he has come under heavy fire for being too negative in the face of Turkey's apparent change of heart. Moreover, the Greek side signalled it did not endorse Annan's terms of committing to a referendum on his plan before negotiations re-start.

"Our side have been stupid in projecting a negative face while Turkey was winning the public relations exercise," seasoned Greek Cypriot political commentator Sofronis Sofroniou said.

Even so, while saying "we have been negative and indecisive," Sofroniou added that "Turkey is no better; it has offered no substance or clear endorsement of the Annan plan."

The analyst points to the recent statement by Turkey's influential National Security Council of political and military leaders supporting the Annan plan only as a "reference point".

"There is a long way from accepting the core of the Annan plan as a basis of negotiation as the Greek Cypriots have and saying it is a reference point," said Sofroniou.

Turkish and Turkish Cypriot leaders also refer to the "realities of Cyprus", interpreted as meaning two separate states. This scenario is not envisaged in the UN's federalist plan and is considered a "nightmare" by the internationally recognized Greek Cypriot government.

A divided island joining the bloc could raise tension between Ankara and Brussels as, technically, 30,000 Turkish troops would be occupying part of the European Union. Turkish Cypriots would also be frozen out of the EU.

Denktash has warned that the calendar may be too tight to conclude a settlement to the three-decade conflict.

The arch-nationalist says he is ready to return to the table and negotiate on the same plan he rejected last March, an irony not lost on his opposite number.

Papadopoulos believes no solution is possible if Denktash is given carte blanche.

So Annan has the tricky task of navigating the apparent brinkmanship and overcoming mutual suspicion to judge if the time is ripe to give Cyprus another chance.

"Signs are encouraging but we are not there yet," commented a diplomatic source.-AFP