18 January 2004	Sunday	25 Ziqa'ad 1424

BAGHDAD: Over the past month the capture of Saddam Hussein has become the stuff of dinner party conversations, cafe debates and drunken speculation across the Middle East. Within Iraq and outside, fascination with the deposed dictator remains strong.

But it seems that everybody has to come to terms with the fact that Saddam is gone. He was a useful rallying point for discontent in the Arab world once, and a bogeyman for people outside. Now that is all over.

The often outlandish theories on his capture only reflect the frustration of his supporters and their unwillingness to believe their former hero surrendered meekly, or even that he was captured at all.

Many opponents of the US invasion of Iraq voice anger at the way in which the Iraqi leader was "humiliated" on television; others fear adverse reactions among the Arab masses.

Ultimately the way in which he was captured and then paraded on television will prove irrelevant. A trial in which all his misdeeds are catalogued could prove cathartic for Iraq and for the region, but beyond that his role is played out.

That was most aptly illustrated by the passing of the old "Saddam dinars" with the former dictator's picture on it last week. Now on only the new "Bremer dinar" (on which the US administrator does not figure) is legal tender.

It is a measure of optimism not often expressed that Iraqi currency is gaining strength to the point that it is now bought for speculation in neighbouring countries. On the ground little has changed. But it is only a month yet.

Most Shias and Kurds - between them an overwhelming majority in Iraq - have expressed relief at the capture of Saddam. Many accept that fear of his return held back their full participation in the new Iraq.

The US-led coalition seems not to have gained politically or militarily so far as a result of the capture. It has brought at best an inverted benefit; failure to capture him had shown United States troops as ineffective. And had Saddam remained in the background, he still could have become a rallying point.

Political scientist Saad Jawad from the University of Baghdad had suggested after Saddam's capture that many opposed to him would now feel free to join the resistance. But something very different could be happening.

Sunnis feel disempowered in the new scenario where power has shifted to Shias and Kurds. Not all Sunnis supported the Baath regime, but Saddam still seemed to many the only alternative for eventual return to power. With Saddam and most of his ministers and henchmen in custody, Sunnis have to rethink the purpose of their resistance.

This situation may have contributed to the recent formation of a Sunni leadership council comprising tribal sheikhs, religious leaders and politicians.

The State Council for the Sunnis as it is called seems to be gaining influence among the Sunni population. That would have been difficult with Saddam on the loose.

The Council has a definite religious slant to it that sets it apart form the more secular Baath ideology of many people behind the resistance. This may lead to a division in the ranks of people who oppose the US presence. A US intelligence report says Saddam himself warned the Baathist resistance to keep Muslim extremist groups at arm's length.

The document the intelligence report refers to was seized in Saddam's hiding hole. This raises the question how far the former leader was involved in the resistance. It now seems that his role was more than symbolic. How that will affect resistance fighters is not clear.

The United States administration may not know yet how Saddam's capture will affect fighting within Iraq, but it is crowing already about its effect on the region's leaders.

US officials say Libyan leader Muammar Qadhafi is now choosing to pacify the United States rather than confront it. And that Syrian President Bashar Assad is now talking peace with Israel.

But these developments may have little to do with seeing Saddam paraded and humiliated on television.

Libya started on the path of rapprochement with the West years ago when it decided to cooperate in the Lockerbie trials. A Libyan was involved in the bombing of Pan Am flight 103 over the Scottish town Lockerbie on Dec 21, 1988. All 259 on board died in the bombing, along with 11 on the ground.

Syria has felt the cold since the end of the Iraq war, and has been casting about for ways to ease US pressure. But neither Qadhafi nor Assad are likely to feel threatened. The capture has shown also how costly such a course of action is for the United States.-Dawn/The InterPress News Service.