15 January 2004	Thursday	22 Ziqa'ad 1424

ANKARA: Turkey is gambling that a new drive to resolve the deeply divisive issue of Cyprus will be enough to protect its bid to join the European Union. But some say it may not want to play all its Cyprus cards before getting a firm "yes" to entry into the wealthy bloc.

Ankara's fingerprints are on two recent moves by Turkish Cypriots towards restarting talks on reuniting the Mediterranean island with their Greek counterparts, who will join the EU without them if agreement is not reached by May 1.

EU officials have made it plain that they hold Turkey responsible for breaking the stalemate, and that Ankara's own chances of getting a date for EU entry talks when the subject is decided in December will be hurt if there is no breakthrough.

Veteran Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash on Monday appeared to ease his outright opposition to a UN reunification plan and his son Serdar Denktash has joined a pro-reunification party in a coalition government that was named on Tuesday.

But some say Ankara may try to drag out talks on the fate of Cyprus, split along ethnic lines for three decades, in the hope that Brussels will reward peace efforts when it reviews Turkey's membership bid, rather than insisting on a firm deal by May 1.

And hardliners in Turkey's powerful military and political establishment could still undermine the new initiative. "I don't know of any foreign policy issue on which Ankara is more fragmented," one Western diplomat said.

"The government has decided to play the game the Europeans asked them to play, but try to limit the domestic political risks at the same time. That means squaring the circle."

Turkey, which backs the northern Cypriot enclave with cash and at least 30,000 troops, is under huge international pressure to push the Turkish Cypriots back to peace talks with the Greek Cypriots on the basis of a UN blueprint called the Annan Plan.

Talks collapsed 10 months ago with Denktash flatly rejecting the Annan Plan, and time is now short before the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot government joins the EU on May 1.

In principle the Greek Cypriots will be able to veto Turkey's entry bid later this year, although they are not the only EU member that might stand in Turkey's way.

Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his government, anxious to join the European club, seem to have accepted that the Annan Plan is the only practical framework for fresh talks.

And Turkey, the only country to recognise northern Cyprus as a state, holds enormous influence over Turkish Cypriot leaders. "It's the first time I've seen this resolve and a growing consensus on the part of Ankara to push for a Cyprus settlement," said Sedat Ergin, Ankara bureau chief for Hurriyet daily. "I think it's really genuine - they really mean it."

But some analysts say the government, though sincere in looking for a solution, is playing for time, nervous about rocking the boat with hardliners in the Turkish establishment.

"These are not efforts for a settlement before May 1, but efforts to create a window of opportunity before May 1," commentator Burak Bekdil wrote in Tuesday's Turkish Daily News.

"Ankara wants to synchronize its efforts for a solution with its (EU) candidacy timetable... The new initiative is about negotiations but not necessarily a deal before Turkey has won assurances for a date to open accession talks."

MILITARY QUALMS: Details of the new policy that have emerged in the Turkish media deal mainly with tweaking key figures, maps and deadlines in the Annan Plan on issues such as territory, the return of Greek Cypriots to the north and the removal of Turkish troops.

But Turkey's powerful generals are wary that the government will give too much away - especially on the troops issue - and they will push against any concessions aimed at a quick deal.

The final decision on the new policy has been deferred to a meeting later this month of the National Security Council, where the military remains influential despite democratic reforms.-Reuters