03 January 2004	Saturday	10 Ziqa'ad 1424

CAIRO, Jan 2: The armed forces will all but certainly provide once again Egypt's next president as Hosni Mubarak has said he will not bequeath power to his younger son Gamal, analysts said on Friday.

"The next president will most likely come from the military institution," said Dia Rashwan, an expert at the Al Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.

"The military institution has been behind the political picture since the July revolution," the coup that toppled the monarchy in 1952, he said. He said the army wants to have one of its officers in charge of Egypt once again because "he would understand first hand national security concerns".

Dia Rashwan said the regional situation justified the armed forces' continued grip on power. "There are wars in the region, from Iraq to Sudan, not to mention the Middle East conflict."

"This is the normal state of affairs in the region, the military is in charge, even in Israel which claims to be an oasis of democracy in the region," he said.

He was referring to the election of two former army generals over the past decade as Israeli prime ministers, Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon, who currently holds office.

Hosny Mubarak, 75, on Thursday put an end to persistent rumours that he was grooming one of his two sons, 40-year-old Gamal, to take over the presidency after him.

"This is nonsense... the regime in Egypt is republican, there is no hereditary transfer of power. This happened in a certain country, it will not happen in Egypt," Mr Mubarak said.

Hosny Mubarak, who has been in power since 1981, was referring to Syria, where Bashar al Assad took over power from his father Hafez after his death in 2000.

The issue of the succession came under renewed attention in November, when the president interrupted a keynote speech to parliament because of what officials said was a bout of severe flu.

Gamal Mubarak was named in 2002 to head the powerful political committee of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), fueling rumours that he was being prepared for the top job, although he has not made a career in the army. Mubarak has never named a vice president, the route he and his predecessor Anwar al Sadat, took to become head of state.-AFP