December 27, 2003	Saturday	Ziqa’ad 3, 1424

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LAHORE, Dec 26: President Pervez Musharraf’s willingness to submit himself to his electoral college for a trust vote, after a year of debate between the supporters and opponents of the LFO and the status of the general’s presidency as a consequence to a controversial referendum, has made the country’s most powerful man dependent upon the ruling coalition. And PML-Q President Shujaat Husain, who was catapulted to leadership role in politics because of the general’s consistent backing during the past four years, will now have to pay back by organizing sufficient parliamentary support to enable him to cross the bridge the MMA wants him to do as a face saver for the religious parties alliance.

Slightest complacency on the part of the ruling party and other coalition partners may be disastrous for the future of the general, and effective steps would have to be taken to keep all legislators united and ensure their presence at a time the president has to prove that majority of all legislators are behind him.

Since Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali had been elected prime minister with a single vote majority — and only 15 more people had backed him at the time of his confidence vote — the ruling coalition would have to be extra careful to ensure that there are no defections at this crucial juncture.

Chaudhry Shujaat and Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi will have to be on their toes to be able to get Gen Musharraf a respectable support from across the country.

In fact, the political battle to legitimize Gen Musharraf’s presidency will be fought in the Punjab, where the ruling party enjoys comfortable majority. Situation in the Senate, the National Assembly and other provincial legislatures is not even remotely comparable with the one in the country’s biggest province.

It is expected that the Punjab Assembly session will be held on Monday. Leave to all staff members has been disallowed till the trust vote is held.

Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi was elected by 235 out of 372 members of the huge house in November last year. His supporters came from his own party, the PML-Q, the National Alliance, the PML (Jinnah), the PML (Junejo) and a breakaway faction of the PPP.

His rival, PPP-Parliamentarian’s Qasim Zia had bagged 102 votes. Nine MMA MPAs had abstained.

AS the composition remained almost unchanged over the past one year, Gen Musharraf should get all those votes which had been polled by the young leader of Gujrat.

In the National Assembly, Mr Jamali had won 171 out of 342 votes at the time of his election. Some fence sitters threw their weight behind the Baloch leader at the time of confidence vote when his tally rose to 186. In addition to the PML-Q, the support had come from the PPP-Patriots, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, the National Alliance, the PML (Functional), the PML (Junejo), the PPP (Sherpao), the PML-Z, the Pakistan Awami Tehrik and some others.

Had 20 PPP legislators, who had changed loyalties to form the PPP-Patriots, not supported Mr Jamali, and the ARD and the MMA had remained together, Mr Jamali would have lost the election by four votes.

The ruling party has lost a couple of its supporters because of the death of Maulana Azam Tariq and parting of the ways by Dr Tahirul Qadri.

And since the ARD and the MMA will not vote for the president, Gen Musharraf will almost get the same number of votes as obtained by the prime minister.

In the Senate, the president is likely to get 50 out of 100 votes. These votes will come from the ruling coalition. The Balochistan Assembly will be a danger zone for Gen Musharraf. Here, Chief Minister Jam Muhammad Yousaf had polled 45 votes out of total 65. These votes also included 18 of the MMA and four of the Jamhoori Watan Party.

At the time of the vote of confidence for the president, the JWP will not vote for the general because it is now a part of the ARD, and the MMA will abstain as a matter of policy. The PONM, which has 11 seats in the provincial legislature, will also stay away.

As a result, the general can’t expect more votes than what the PML-Q has in the kitty — 21. The prospects are equally dim in NWFP, where the MMA is in power.

Here, out of 125 MPAs, MMA’s 68 are supposed to abstain and 11 PPP-Parliamentarians will vote against the general. ANP’s 10 and PML-N’s five will also go against Gen Musharraf, assuming that the legislators stick to their party policies.

The PML-Q’s 10 and PPP (Sheprao)’s 13 are the major supporters of Gen Musharraf.

In Sindh Assembly, more than one third of the 168 members will not vote for the president. They include 67 of the PPP-Parliamentarians and 10 of the MMA.

Eighteen members of the PML-Q, 41 of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement, 14 of the National Alliance will support Gen Musharraf.

According to informed sources, efforts have been started to resolve differences between the Sindh chief minister and dissidents led by Raheela Tiwana. The dissidents have been told not to create any problems for the chief minister at a time unity was needed in the party.