December 15, 2003	Monday	Shawwal 20, 1424

LONDON: Saddam Hussein’s capture will delight most Iraqis and devastate the deposed dictator’s loyalists, but even this stunning victory for US forces may not quell the violence they face in Iraq.

Even as Iraqis took to the streets to rejoice at the seizure of the once feared ruler, analysts said it was premature to assume that resistance to the US-led occupation would crumble.

“There will be a reduction in operations sponsored by former regime loyalists, but this is not the full story because they are not the only group involved,” said Mustafa Alani, an Iraq analyst at London’s Royal United Services Institute.

US officials have blamed Saddam loyalists and foreign militants for attacks that have killed nearly 200 US soldiers since George Bush declared major combat in Iraq over on May 1.

Saddam had eluded capture for eight months after Baghdad fell on April 9 to US forces, who also failed to find any of the weapons of mass destruction cited by the United States and Britain as the main reason for the war they launched in March.

“It’s a huge coup and most Iraqis will be celebrating the capture of this tyrant,” said Toby Dodge of Warwick University and the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “But it’s not as clear-cut as that. The insurgency has grown well beyond Saddam’s control or even influence. There are 15 to 30 groups that have no direct contact, financially or strategically, with Saddam Hussein,” he said.

Sir Timothy Garden, of Kings College London, said Saddam’s capture would boost the morale of US-led forces and of the US-appointed Governing Council, but might not stem the bloodshed.

Several analysts said it was a vital psychological blow that buried lingering Iraqi fears of a comeback by Saddam and opened the way for a trial that could help Iraq deal with its past.

“It really destroys forever the idea of a return to Saddam for many who thought he was a kind of legend capable of resistance and carrying the Iraqi flag again,” said Abdel-Monem Said, director of Egypt’s Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies.

Alani said it was a propaganda coup for the Americans to have captured Saddam alive.

“It’s an intelligence prize because they can get information from him about cells working now. And it’s a huge victory because he was the head of the regime and not like anyone else on the list of 55 most wanted.”

Tracking down Saddam in his hometown of Tikrit could give renewed hope for US efforts to stabilize and rebuild Iraq.

“But the temptation of Bush, facing a re-election campaign, will be to call this victory and cut and run. That would be a disaster for Iraq, for the Middle East and for the strategic interests of the United States in the region and beyond.”—Reuters