December 5, 2003	Friday	Shawwal 10, 1424

MOSCOW, Dec 4: Confusion grew over Russia’s position on the Kyoto protocol on Thursday as the Kremlin and the economy ministry clashed over the landmark environmental treaty, which Moscow can effectively veto.

Kremlin economic adviser Andrei Illarionov said he had spoken for President Vladimir Putin two days ago in calling the pact unacceptable, but the economy ministry reaffirmed a deputy minister’s statement that the government intended to ratify it.

Analysts said the conflict meant President Putin had not made up his mind over the pact, which aims to cut emissions of the gases that cause global warming, and was unlikely to do so until after presidential elections in March.

“The deputy economy minister is mistaken. He is mistaken in his timing. What he said was the position of the Russian Federation in August,” Illarionov told reporters.

“(Tuesday’s) statement was made physically by me, but the words I was using were those of the Russian president.”

Russia has long been pressured by the United States and the European Union, which oppose and back the pact respectively, to make up its mind. Russian approval has been key to the treaty since Washington backed out in 2001.

It will come into force if countries responsible for 55 percent of nations’ emissions approve it. That means Russia — responsible for 17 percent — has the casting vote.

On Wednesday, the economy ministry said the government had not decided to bow out of the pact and still supported it in principle — and it stood by the statement on Thursday.

“The economy ministry will give no comments today, because the ministry’s position is unchanged from how it was expressed yesterday,” a spokeswoman said.

CLEAR SIGN: Analysts said the mixed signals were a sign the Russian government did not have a position on the pact and was feeling out reactions to different policies.

“If one government agency is arguing with another government agency it means there is no position,” said Boris Makarenko, of the Institute of Political Technologies think-tank.

Washington is the major opponent of the Kyoto protocol, but until recently Russia was closer to the EU position. Two months ago, Putin backed away from promises to approve the treaty, saying Russia needed to study its potential economic effect.

Illarionov, regarded an an opponent of Kyoto, has said the treaty’s curbs could restrict Russia’s energy-dependent economy, while also preventing its industry from growing back to levels before the Soviet collapse.

“What we do not know is whether Russia is associating itself with the U.S. and whether it is bowing to pressure,” one diplomat said. “If this is the case, we cannot expect any final decision until after the U.S. elections late next year.”

He said Putin would heed advisers who said the pact would endanger his key domestic policy of doubling national wealth in a decade, and that he frequently over-ruled ministries when he had a personal interest in an issue.

“The president is quite aggressive...he has the last say and often it is against the proposals of the economy ministry and even the prime minister,” said the diplomat.

Russia holds presidential elections in March. The widely popular Putin is expected to win and reshuffle his government — a move which could well change its position on the pact. “We believe that this situation means we cannot expect any decision until after the...elections,” the diplomat said. —Reuters