Vajpayee’s electoral pipedream
By jawed Naqvi
WHEN Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Hindu revivalist party, the BJP, was trounced in India’s politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh on February 25, 2002, it led to the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat on February 28. The result was a landslide victory for the BJP in the state polls later that year. By contrast there was no communal polarization in the BJP-ruled state of Himachal Pradesh, primarily because there are hardly any Muslims there. The BJP lost the state to the Congress.
Therefore, when Mr Vajpayee claims, as he did during last month’s election campaign for four vital state assemblies, that the BJP would win a two-thirds majority in next year’s general elections, it ought to make everyone sit up and worry. For there are only two ways in which he could conjure such an improbable victory in 2004. Mr Vajpayee was himself party to India’s first parliamentary landslide, when his Jana Sangh group deftly merged with India’s first catch all coalition, the Janata Party, cobbled together to reject Indira Gandhi’s emergency rule in 1977. That situation does not obtain for him this time round.
The second and as yet the only other landslide victory registered in India’s parliamentary polls had gone to Rajiv Gandhi, who rode a giant sympathy wave after his mother and then prime minister Indira Gandhi was assassinated in October 1984. We have already taken into account the Gujarat model for winning landslides. Bereft of these two or three approaches to winning the kind of victory that Mr Vajpayee is eying one wonders what strategy he is banking on, given that there is little going in BJP’s favour.
The fact of the matter is that the BJP has always struggled behind the Congress party. Its percentage of total votes polled in parliamentary elections has never once surpassed that of the Congress. Take a look at the statistics, which have been gleaned from the Election Commission’s records. In 1984, when Mrs Gandhi was assassinated, her son got 49.10 per cent of votes polled, which translated into 404 seats of the 491 he had contested. This figure hopefully will never again be repeated in Indian parliament, because it is a consequence of an unacceptable tragedy. The BJP mustered 7.74 per cent votes in 1984, giving the party just two seats out of the 224 it contested.
In 1989, Rajiv Gandhi was defeated but the Congress still managed to get 39.53 per cent of the votes, translating into 197 seats of the 510 it contested. The man who became prime minister instead after that election was Mr Vishwanath Pratap Singh. It must be the biggest irony of Indian democracy that Mr Singh’s Janata Dal party had secured just 17.79 per cent of the votes. The BJP won 85 seats out of the 225 it contested, garnering 11.36 per cent votes.
Similarly, after the mid-term polls in 1991 during which Rajiv Gandhi was killed and Mr P.V. Narasimha Rao became prime minister, the Congress formed a minority government with just 244 MPs. It had 36.55 per cent of the votes against the BJP’s 20.04 per cent. The BJP got 120 seats, about one-fourth of the total it had contested.
Take any other election since then. In 1996, when Mr Vajpayee virtually gate-crashed the prime minister’s house the BJP was woefully short of a majority. The BJP had secured 161 seats against the Congress party’s 140. But the percentage of votes secured by each told another story. The Congress had 28.80 per cent against the BJP’s 20.29 per cent. It didn’t matter much though, since it was the United Front this time that formed the government, throwing up two prime ministers in two years.
In the 1998 elections, the Congress was still ahead of the BJP in percentage terms, but barely so. The BJP secured 25.59 per cent votes, winning 182 out of the 388 seats it went for. The Congress managed just 141 of the 477 seats it fought. Since then the BJP has been resorting to every electoral trick in the book to increase its vote share but has failed miserably. The BJP’s vote share is now down to 23.75 per cent. Yes, the BJP got 182 seats against the Congress party’s dismal 114, but it was not the most popular party nor was it ever in a majority on its own.
Therefore, when Mr Vajpayee speaks of a two-thirds majority for the BJP in next year’s elections, you wonder what he could be thinking of.
* * * * *
VOTERS in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattishgarh and Delhi will make their choice on December 1 between the Congress party and the BJP. But regardless of who wins or loses, the electorate are having a ball — at the expense of the candidates of course. Some NGOs are asserting their right to information to probe the antecedents of the candidates, a requirement stipulated by the Election Commission. The result is scores of eye-opening confessions in the form of sworn affidavits by candidates to crimes ranging from rape charges, to robbery and extortion.
On the other hand one NGO in Delhi has brought out a compendium of idiotic policies pursued by the state government. Ever wondered why, it asks, the government spends Rs 4,461 on a cow, which is more than what it spends on a school student; why there are only 29 drug inspectors for over 5,000 retailers when the fake drug market is worth more than Rs 4,000 crore? What is the relevance of a directorate of prohibition when the department of tourism and Delhi State Industrial Development Corporation run about 200 liquor outlets?


Singson’s film depicts Filipino politics
By Stuart Grudgings
MANILA: His life in politics had read like the script of a silver-screen blockbuster — intrigue, assassination attempts and a scandal that brought down a president.
So it seemed only natural for Luis “Chavit” Singson to make it into one.
The four-hour epic “Chavit” has just hit Manila’s cinemas, telling the story of the real-life hero, a former provincial governor whose allegations that Joseph Estrada creamed profits from gambling syndicates led to the president’s downfall in 2001.
The movie, reportedly the most expensive in Philippine cinema history, romps through the defining moments of Singson’s life in the northern province of Ilocos Sur, including multiple attempts on his life and his whistleblower role in the Estrada scandal.
Manila’s cinemas are not the only place where the lines between politics and entertainment are blurring as the country heads into crucial elections next May.
In the real world, the country’s answer to Arnold Schwarzenegger has just announced his candidacy for president, based on little more than his success against bad guys on film.
Wearing dark glasses and wiping away tears of emotion, 64-year-old action star Fernando Poe Jr told reporters after the announcement of his candidacy on Wednesday he was responding to a clamour from his fans.
“I went around the Philippines and I saw what the people need,” said the actor, whose roles as a Robin Hood-style underdog won him a strong following among the country’s millions of poor. “I saw the clamour, I cannot turn my back.”
He did not detail any policies. As yet, he doesn’t have any.
The early favourite to be Fernando Poe Jr’s running mate is a photogenic woman who won a Senate seat thanks largely to her pulling power as a TV broadcaster.
Administration officials have tut-tutted at Poe’s utter lack of political experience, unless you count his close friendship with Estrada, himself a movie hero of the masses.
But claiming the moral high ground is tricky for President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo given her apparent attempts to get Noli de Castro, a TV newsreader with a few years in the Senate behind him, to join her ticket. Independent contender Raul Roco has also been quick to surround himself with showbiz glitz.
BEHIND THE GLITZ: The invasion of politics by celebrities makes for great headlines, and the Philippines is not the only country to let fame go to its head. Italy had La Cicciolina, a buxom porn star who won a seat in parliament, and the United States survived the presidency of former actor Ronald Reagan.
But many believe it is a symptom of deep problems.
They see democracy in the Philippines as deformed by a huge rich-poor divide and a lack of strong grass-roots political parties that would help produce policy-driven debate.
Instead, politics is reduced to harvesting as many votes as possible at election time and celebrity has proven the best tool.
“The rigging of the presidential selection process by both the administration and the opposition leaves the people very little choice except those selected by elite political fixers,” the Philippine Daily Inquirer said in an angry editorial.
“When things go wrong after the polls, voters find themselves holding the bag in this con game called celebrity politics.”
—Reuters

