November 24, 2003	Monday	Ramazan 28, 1424

BEIJING: China, alarmed by Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian’s apparent push for independence, is warning of war if its rival crosses the red line. But while the war of words rumbles, military conflict is unlikely — for now.

The timing of Beijing’s latest warning to Taipei after months of silence is hardly by chance. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao is to visit Washington next month and the issue of Taiwan is likely to be high on the agenda — especially after Chen’s latest moves.

“Beijing is now caught between a rock and a hard place. If it does not say or do anything, Chen might win. If it says or does too much, Chen might win too,” said Wang Jianwei, chair of political science at University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point.

China used Wang Zaixi, a major general and vice minister of the Taiwan Affairs Office, to warn that “the use of force may become unavoidable” if Taiwan were to cross the red line — Beijing’s strongest language in years.

“The mainland had no choice but to react,” said Yu Keli, one of China’s top Taiwan watchers.

“To let this kind of atmosphere develop, the situation could get out of hand,” said Yu, president of the Institute of Taiwan Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think-tank.

NOT NEGOTIABLE: “Reunification is a matter of principle. It’s not negotiable,” Li Zhaojie, a law professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, told a news conference.

Beijing and Taipei have been political and military rivals since their split at the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949, but trade, investment and civilian exchanges have boomed since detente began in the late 1980s.

Analysts rule out military conflict in the near future.

“The People’s Liberation Army is not psychologically prepared at this juncture and it does not have the capability to launch a combined operation involving the army, navy and air force,” said Arthur Chi, a Taiwan expert on China’s 2.5 million-strong PLA — the world’s biggest military.

“Whether Chen will push ahead with independence hinges on the attitude of the United States and the number of votes he gets,” said Chi, referring to presidential elections next March.

Analysts say China is committed to peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but any interference by Washington would cause a sharp downturn in China-US relations.

BOUND TO BREATHE FIRE: If poked too many times, they say, the Chinese dragon is bound to breathe fire.

First, the Taiwan president flirted with the idea of a referendum bill, which China fears could lead to a vote to formalize the island’s de facto independence.

Then, Chen tested China’s patience with a push in September for a new constitution, also seen by Beijing as a provocative move to pave the way for statehood.

China fumed when Chen received red-carpet treatment during his late October stopover in the United States, which recognizes Beijing but not Taipei. Chen even shook hands with US Secretary of State Colin Powell in Panama this month.

Days later, Pacific island nation Kiribati rubbed salt into China’s diplomatic wounds when it switched recognition from Beijing to Taipei.

It was Chen’s first diplomatic victory since he won the 2000 presidential elections to end five decades of Nationalist Party rule.

Chen has pushed for putting the new constitution to a vote by 2006 as part of his re-election bid, saying the move is necessary to deepen democracy and break a gridlock between the opposition-dominated parliament and the cabinet.

Taiwan opposition parties and political analysts accuse Chen of using the moves as tools to change Taiwan’s ambiguous political status and push the self-ruled democratic island of 23 million towards a permanent split from China.

Facing a difficult election in March 2004 with a flagging economy, stalled relations with China, high unemployment and policy flip-flops, Chen is counting on an angry Chinese response to boost his re-election chances, analysts said.

But China sees Chen’s moves as more than an election gambit.

“It’s not mere election language. In reality, it’s pushing for Taiwan independence in the name of elections,” said Yu.

CHINA IN A BIND: The last time China slapped Taiwan down, Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji wagged his finger on national television and warned of disastrous consequences on the eve of the island’s 2000 polls.

The threat backfired. Coupled with a split in the Nationalist vote, Chen, the candidate least preferred by China, became the first opposition candidate to win the presidency.

Four years earlier, China had menaced Taiwan with war games and missile tests in the run-up to previous elections, only to see angry voters hand then-president Lee Teng-hui a landslide win.

China is in a bind. If it overreacts, it risks angering Taiwan swing voters who may vote for Chen. If it stays quiet, Taiwan voters and the United States, the island’s main arms supplier and trading partner, could underestimate the danger.

Analysts are divided over whether China would risk invading Taiwan ahead of the 2008 Beijing Olympics. But some recall that giving the Soviet Union the right to host the 1980 Moscow Olympics did not stop it from invading Afghanistan in 1979.

“There will be no Olympic holiday,” said Xu Bodong, a Taiwan watcher at Beijing Union University.

“It’s tantamount to handing elements who want Taiwan independence a detonator to start a civil war,” Xu said of the referendum bill.—Reuters