November 11, 2003	Tuesday	Ramazan 15, 1424

LONDON: They call it Shouting Valley — a remote spot in the Golan Heights where Syrians go to meet their relatives on the opposite side. Across the valley they can see each other and wave, but it is not easy to talk. Those with strong voices shout, while others use loudhailers, because they are kept apart by coils of razor wire, a 300-metre minefield, and an electrified fence.

The Syrians on the other side — who nowadays number about 24,000 — have been living under Israeli occupation since 1967. Thousands more were driven out when Israeli forces swept through the hills, and now live in camps dotted around Syria where their numbers have swelled to more than 400,000.

For the last 36 years, recovering the Golan Heights — 460 square miles of fertile volcanic soil stretching down to the Sea of Galilee — has been the prime goal of Syria’s foreign policy, but keeping the issue in the spotlight has often proved difficult.

Since the collapse of peace talks between the late President Hafez al-Assad and the Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak in 2000, the Palestinian uprising has diverted attention; the current road map for peace, sponsored by the US, the EU, the UN and Russia, hints at an eventual Israeli-Syrian settlement almost as an afterthought.

But in the eyes of many Syrians — as well as foreign diplomats in Damascus — the Golan is back on the agenda again. The change came on October 5, when Israel bombed an apparently abandoned building 15 miles from Damascus which it said was a training centre for Palestinian militants.

President George Bush gave the attack his public blessing.

The Israeli attack was seen by some as an attempt to put pressure on Damascus to expel Palestinian militants who, until now, have felt safe in Syria.

But whatever Israel’s reasons, the attack was a clear breach of the Golan Heights disengagement pact signed by Israel and Syria in 1974, which says that both sides “will scrupulously observe the ceasefire on land, sea and air and will refrain from all military actions against each other”.

There are also few in Syria who believe that the attack will be the last. Israel has published a “Map of Terror” showing 17 potential targets around Damascus.

Syria responded to the raid by complaining to the UN security council — where its submission is now gathering dust — but all the signs are that it will react much more strongly to any future bombing.

“We’ll not sit idle,” the foreign minister, Farouk al-Sharaa told a group of western journalists last month. “We’ll act in a responsible, serious way.”

What exactly this means is unclear, but the next day General Hassan Turkmani, the Syrian chief of staff, told troops to maintain the highest level of readiness in order to meet “aggressive adventures” by Israel. Syria’s traditional response to pressure from Israel has been to turn up the heat on the Lebanese-Israeli border. Although Syria still has hegemony over Lebanon, times have changed and such a move would be unpopular with the Lebanese and fuel Syria’s critics in the US.

A more likely Syrian strategy, some observers say, would focus attention directly on the occupied Golan Heights.

The Syrians have already tightened their air defences, according to diplomatic sources, and would almost certainly try to shoot down any incoming Israeli warplanes.

Hinting at another possible course of action, Mr Sharaa said last week: “Don’t forget there are [Israeli] settlements in the Golan.”

Though it is doubtful that Syrian inhabitants of the Golan would be eager to attack them, and reap the consequences from Israeli forces, Syria could “extend Hezbollah’s licence” further into the Golan.

At present, Damascus keeps the Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas on a tight leash, confining their attacks mainly to the Sheba’a Farms, a tiny corner of the Golan which is occupied by Israel but claimed by Lebanon. A more dramatic move by Syria — which some diplomats think likely — would be to mass troops close to the Golan ceasefire line while staying within the letter of the disengagement agreement.

The rules allow only 6,000 soldiers and 75 tanks within 10km, and 450 tanks within 20km, but beyond 20km there are no limitations. Large-scale Syrian troop movements would force Israel to respond, at a time when its forces are tied up fighting the Palestinians. Israel recently announced a call-up of several hundred reservists to plug the gap that has been left by cuts in defence spending.

This, according to some assessments, is how Syria might drive Israel to the negotiating table, though the risks are high. A small miscalculation could bring disastrous consequences. —Dawn/The Guardian News Service