US needs persistence, not passion, in Iran

WASHINGTON: The Bush administration must be patient with Iran, where growing popular unhappiness with the conservative leadership is unlikely to lead to swift political change, let alone a popular insurrection as some US neo-conservatives have predicted, says a new report.

Amid rising tensions over the country’s nuclear programme and new charges that it is sheltering senior leaders of the Al Qaeda group, including the son of Osama bin Laden, the Brussels-based International Crisis Group (ICG) is calling on President George W. Bush to seriously engage Tehran rather than to seek confrontation with it.

In its report entitled “Iran: Discontent and Disarray”, the ICG says much more probable than a grassroots uprising is the rise of “conservative pragmatists”, such as former President Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani, who have supported opening up to the West for economic reasons while continuing to resist far-reaching political reform.

“There should be no let-up in the world support for political reform and greater respect for human rights,” said Robert Malley, ICG’s Middle East programme director who served as specialist for the region on the US National Security Council under former President Bill Clinton.

In that respect, the report notes that the decision to award this year’s Nobel Peace Prize to human-rights lawyer Shirin Ebadi could be considered particularly helpful.

“But the regime is not likely to collapse soon, so there is no serious alternative to engaging it on urgent security matters,” Malley added. “And that engagement is going to have to address, as well as everybody else’s anxieties, Iran’s own sense of strategic encirclement and nuclear disadvantage,” he said.

Iran policy has been a major point of contention with the Bush administration virtually since it took power almost three years ago.

On the one hand, the State Department under its chief Colin Powell has supported continuing with the gradual detente policy promoted under Clinton. On the other, hawks based primarily in the offices of Vice President Dick Cheney and Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld have opposed engagement, arguing instead for a policy of isolation and confrontation.

The Sept 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and the Pentagon marked the hawks’ ascendancy within the administration.

While contacts between Washington and Tehran — which have not had direct diplomatic ties since the US embassy hostage crisis 23 years ago — picked up sharply during Washington’s military campaign in Afghanistan in late 2001, Iran’s inclusion in the “axis of evil” described by Bush in his State of the Union Address in January 2002 instantly cooled relations.

Still, the State Department maintained discreet contacts with the Iranian government until mid-May, when US intelligence concluded that a series of Al Qaeda attacks in Saudi Arabia that left some 35 people dead, including eight US nationals, were planned and possibly ordered in Iran by senior leaders of the group. As a result, the contacts were put on ice.

At the same time, tensions were rising over Iran’s nuclear programme, which, according to Tehran, is designed exclusively for civilian use.

But the United States believes that Iran intends to build a nuclear weapon and has accelerated its efforts to do so. The issue has moved quickly to the top of the agenda of the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which has given Tehran until the end of October to explain a number of inconsistencies its inspectors have recently discovered.

At the same time, the Pentagon has declined to disarm and dissolve a heavily armed Iranian rebel group, the Mujahideen-e Khalq (MeK), which is based in Iraq and was closely allied to the ousted regime of former President Saddam Hussein.

Its failure to do so, despite the MeK’s inclusion on the State Department’s list of international terrorist groups, is seen in Tehran as evidence that Washington may be willing to use the group as a source of pressure against the Islamic Republic.

A number of prominent neo-conservative thinkers close to the administration hawks have become increasingly outspoken in favour of providing covert aid to student opposition and exile movements in Iran, including one led by the son of the former shah, in hopes of sparking a popular insurrection.

Several of them, including Michael Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a think tank that enjoys strong influence with Rumsfeld and Cheney, have formed the ‘Coalition for Democracy in Iran’ (CDI), which is pressing Congress to approve a bill that would, among other things, provide some $50 million to opposition forces in Iran.

“We are now engaged in a regional struggle in the Middle East, and the Iranian tyrants are the keystone of the terror network,” Ledeen wrote shortly after US troops took Baghdad last April.

“Far more than the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, the defeat of the mullahcracy and the triumph of freedom in Tehran would be a truly historic event and an enormous blow to the terrorists.”

The new ICG report confirms that students and others are indeed unhappy about the prospects for political change in light of the refusal of the conservative religious establishment, led by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenai, to support reforms sponsored by the twice-elected president, Mohamed Khatami, and his allies in the Iranian parliament, the Majlis.

Popular frustrations are being taken out primarily on the reformers, who have been unable to carry out their programmes, adds the report, pointing to the huge drop in turnout in municipal elections earlier this year, which resulted in major gains by conservative politicians.

But the problem is that this frustration is turning more to political apathy. “Student protests persist, but they remain contained; most of the public is reluctant to challenge the state security services directly, sensing both that the regime would not hesitate to resort to violence and that, for the time being at least, there is no readily available credible political alternative.”

Thus, “international policy-makers need to recognize that internal paralysis is a far more probable outcome than radical change”, the report concludes.

In this context, argues the ICG, it makes sense for the West to take advantage of any opening by the regime to economic reform, as well as to engage directly — as Europe has for some time — in critical issues, including security.

“Such contacts need to be encouraged and expanded,” the report says, “as they ultimately help to open up Iran’s political space”.

“The need is to strengthen Iran’s civil society, and that can best be done not by isolating the country but by maximizing economic and cultural contacts while continuing to urge political reform and more respect for human rights,” according to ICG analyst Karim Sadjadpour.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.

Heavy losses caused by pest attack

SATURDAY’S unanimous resolution of the district council calling upon the Punjab government to declare Bahawalpur district a calamity-hit area, has confirmed the heavy losses caused by the pest attack on the standing cotton crop.

The losses have been attributed to the inefficiency of the agriculture department officials and the shortage of pesticides. The government officials remained silent spectators and despite protests by the farming community, pesticides could not be provided to them on time. Consequently, the affected landlords have themselves raised a hue and cry now. There are chances of a considerable shortfall in the production of cotton in the district, which will not be able to achieve the target of 1.21 million bales fixed by the government.

It was about a month ago that the attacks of ‘American’ and ‘Lashkari’ sundi were reported from the rural areas. As the landlords started purchasing the pesticide, it vanished within no time from the market, creating difficulties for them. Some influentials, having contacts with the agriculture department and pesticide dealers, managed to get the stocks of their choice but the small land-holders could not get the same and could not spray their fields. This state of affairs continued for about a month, and during this time pesticides either vanished from the market or were hoarded by dealers and retailers.

Despite repeated appeals by the farming community, the government agencies failed to come to their rescue, and now with the resolution of the district council, it was clear that the majority of the middle and small land-holders was affected due to non-availability of pesticides on time. During this situation, the agriculture officials had been making claims of ‘good crop’.

In these circumstances, the demand that the government should declare Bahawalpur district calamity-hit with concessions in the recovery of loans from this area, seems fair.

CHIEF secretary Abdul Hafeez Randhawa, while stressing the need for contamination-free cotton, has said it will bring a financial benefit of Rs60 billion to the country.

He was speaking at a gathering of cotton-growers, owners of ginning factories, textile mills and representatives of market committees of the districts of Bahawalpur, Bahawalnagar and Rahimyar Khan at the Circuit House here on Saturday.

The chief secretary said Pakistani cotton enjoyed a special status, demand and importance in the international market. If special attention was paid towards its improvement, it would increase Pakistan’s credibility at the international level, which would have far-reaching effects on our national economy.

He admitted that due to excessive rains and shortage of pesticides, the cotton crop had been affected in Rahimyar Khan district. In view of this, he said, the government was actively reviewing its policy to control the non-availability of pesticides in future and was contemplating to import the components and chemicals of the pesticides instead of importing the pesticides.

Bahawalpur Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Shaikh Abbas Raza, Rahimyar Khan district Nazim Makhdoom Ahmad Mahmood and others apprised the chief secretary of the problems of growers, ginners and industrialists. He said the cotton contamination rate in Rahimyar Khan was 19 grams, which had now been brought down to 1.75 gram.

A new wave of price-hike has swept the city and its suburbs before the start of Ramazan. The profiteers had, in fact, increased the rates of essential items about a fortnight ago when reports of hoarding were also received from many parts of the district.

The latest price-hike has caused alarm, particularly among the middle class and the salaried persons. Prices of even vegetables are out of reach of the common man. Although a price control system exists, it is not effective and shopkeepers and traders are overcharging ahead of Ramazan. The prices of mutton, beef and chicken have also shot up.

In the absence of duty magistrates in the district government system, the powers to check prices were delegated to Revenue officials. But this step has failed to provide any relief to the people. The local administration has announced that it will organize Ramazan bazaars, but the people do not pin much hope on the move. It is suggested that the district administration should conduct surprise raids on shops to check hoarders and profiteers.

THE sanitation problem is causing concern among the people here.

Sanitary conditions are poor not only in the Walled City but also in the new residential colonies, which remain neglected by the staff of the Tehsil Council. The sanitary staff only works in those areas where the UC Nazim asks them. People without approach are hardly accommodated. During the past months, the Tehsil Council had launched an anti-encroachment drive in the city, but the problem has not been resolved as the shopkeepers and traders are not cooperating.

The people hope that with the induction of the newly-elected tehsil Naib Nazim, their problems would be affectively tackled and the sanitary staff would discharge their duties regardless of the dictation of UC Nazims.

KARACHI: Who is responsible for Tasman disaster?

A recent visitor to Karachi, Richard Steiner, professor and conservationist from Alaska where he has had first hand experience following the Exxon Valdez spill 15 years back, spoke on how the government and other stake holders misled the people of Karachi in the days following the oil spillage. Steiner called the clean up operations of the KPT and others as a “Third World response” to a problem that will have serious environmental implications for Karachi for several years to come.

First of all, the fact that fuel was extracted after a delay of almost two weeks following the grounding of the Tasman Spirit on the excuse that no vessel was available for the purpose is simply incorrect. There are rapid response teams around the world who would have come in and quickly started cleaning up the spill had the government and the KPT acted swiftly in the matter.

Steiner also said that the KPT initially used “all the wrong equipment” for the job. This only made matters worse. On the issue of aerial spray of dispersants by the government, the Alaska expert had the following observations to make:

First, the use of aerial dispersants is not a very reliable method of dispersing oil slicks and for any results it should have been employed within 48 hours of the spill in certain weather conditions. The aerial spraying started some weeks later. The government did not advise nearby residents that the chemicals used in the spraying were harmful to health. No precautions were taken which resulted in a sharp rise in the number of people complaining of breathing, chest and related ailments.

When asked why the aerial spraying was carried out when there was information that it would be a futile exercise, Steiner commented “this may have been done to show the people of Karachi that the government was doing something”.

One question on the minds of people is “what next.” For one, the oil eating bacteria that various quarters are proudly talking about only attacks the oil so that it can settle on the sea bed. “The oil is very much there. It has only settled on the sea bed and will continue to wash ashore for several years to come,” says Steiner. This will affect marine life as well as the environment, particularly the health of the people living in nearby areas.

As efforts are made to dislodge the Tasman Spirit from its present nose-dive position, with plans to break it up, more oil will be released from within the hulls of the ship as well as the area in which the ship has settled. The time-frame given for this assignment is three months.

Since the KPT chairman, Vice-Admiral Ahmed Hayaat, was not inclined to face the public, the job of defending the undefendable is left to underlings like the hapless KPT pollution control manager, Yahya Osmani. At a recent public seminar, Osmani was shouted down as he tried to defend the lapses of the KPT management.

It is the lack of credibility of the government especially the KPT that has been a source of concern for many experts, including Steiner. “What should have happened is that daily press briefings should have been held after the spill. Instead, there was an information vacuum.”

The vacuum continues till this day. Take for example the issue of opening of the Clifton beach. The coordination committee set up by General Pervez Musharraf under the leadership of the Sindh chief secretary, Mutawakkil Kazi, said that it would only be opened “after a complete safety certification has been received.”

This seems to have had little effect on the administration of the Defence Housing Authority, which has opened the Seaview portion of the Clifton Beach for all practical purposes. Despite claims that the beach is closed, one visit to the Sea-view area belies his claim.

The shops are open, the restaurants are doing business, people are walking in the sand and it is business as usual. For its part, the clean up operation has come to its fag end as the toxic sand sacks have been removed and a lot of the oil has been scraped from the shoreline in this area. The Kazi coordination committee, set up by the president, appears helpless in the face of the DHA.

In the final analysis, one has to ask who will be held responsible for this disaster. There are two elements to this catastrophe. One is who is responsible for the ship running aground. A skeleton crew of the Tasman Spirit are already detained by the government till this issue is settled in a court of law. But there is a larger question that remains unanswered. Who will be held responsible for the ineptitude that followed the spill? The slow response of the departments concerned, the misinformation campaign that ensued and the manner in which the whole matter is now being pushed out of the limelight — unfortunately, such questions are not being asked, let alone people being held accountable.