October 16, 2003	Thursday	Sha'aban 19, 1424

LONDON, Oct 15: The US-led coalition was unprepared for the scale of problems it has encountered in postwar Iraq, and is “struggling” to find the right strategy to fight Saddam Hussein’s loyalists, a leading think-tank said on Wednesday.

In a year dominated by the Iraq campaign and the “war on terror”, the relationship between Europe and the United States was “severely charred” by European complaints about American unilateralism, said John Chipman the director of the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS).

The IISS think-tank on Wednesday released its “Military Balance 2003-2004” report, a survey of military capabilities and defence economics across the world.

Turning to Iraq, the IISS cited the United States’ failure to ensure that weapons did not fall into the wrong hands, to maintain public order in the days following the fall of Saddam in April and to quickly restore basic services to civilians.

The US presence in Iraq “while intimidating potential state sponsors of terrorism, in the short term has heightened the Islamic terrorist impulse and enhanced recruitment,” Chipman said.

“Transnational terrorists” were now clandestinely dispersed in possibly 100 countries, and presented “few concentrated targets amenable to military measures”, he said.

The invasion of the country in March brought about the collapse of its security structures, including the guarding of arms dumps, he added.

“The coalition was unprepared for the scale of the problem, and had no way of securing the quantity of ammunition and weapons storage sites,” Chipman said.

Some half a year on, “the situation has hardly improved and small arms and light weapons are readily available to criminals and insurgents alike.”

The United States backed by Britain went to war in Iraq to overthrown Saddam’s regime, which it accused of developing weapons of mass destruction.

Since the overthrow of Saddam six months ago, more US soldiers have lost their lives in guerrilla-style attacks than during the war.

“The adoption of assymetric tactics by Iraqi regime loyalists working closely with jihadists who have infiltrated the country has challenged occupying forces who are still struggling with the right techniques to counter this insurgency,” said Chipman.

The report noted that the US administration was not prepared for the breakdown in law and order that followed the fall of Saddam.

“Iraq’s brutalised society required a firm grip on civil order the moment fighting ceased; lack of it allowed unchecked looting,” it said.

Delays in providing food, water, electricity and medical services quickly exacerbated the situation, “leading to dissatisfaction which started to undermine military success, making the transition to, and consolidation of, a state of peace ever more difficult,” the report said.

This dissatisfaction has also fed into “increasingly coordinated and effective attacks against coalition troops by dissident groups.”

The security agenda has also been dominated by the issue of North Korea, from which the United States is demanding a dismantling of its nuclear weapons drive.

There seemed to be “no prospects for dramatic progress in the coming months”, despite the parties agreeing in principle to meet, Chipman said.

Meanwhile, the US and Europe “have worked together effectively in response to the exposure of Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme, which could give Iran a nuclear weapons breakout option within a few years,” Chipman added.

In its assessment of Europe, the IISS report said defence spending remained flat as a debate over the region’s future defence plans continued.

NATO was showing signs of change taking over command and expanding the role of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan.

The IISS report said that Japan had shown a greater desire to take part in international military operations, while China had reduced the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) by about 500,000 troops.—AFP