September 22, 2003	Monday	Rajab 24, 1424

MUNICH, Sept 21: German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder’s Social Democrats face their third major defeat this year on Sunday in a state election that Bavarian premier Edmund Stoiber is forecast to win by a landslide.

After heavy losses in state polls in Hesse and Lower Saxony a big defeat in the traditionally conservative Alpine state would underline Schroeder’s weak standing nationally after three years of stagnant economic growth.

But it could also clear the way for negotiations with the conservative opposition as the Chancellor attempts to steer an ambitious package of reforms through parliament this autumn.

For Stoiber, a landslide would bring some revenge a year to the day since Schroeder defeated him by just 6,000 votes in last September’s general election and would reinforce his position as one of the main conservative leaders at the national level.

Polls predict Stoiber’s Christian Social Union (CSU), which has held power in Bavaria for four decades, will increase its share of the vote to about 60 per cent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) will struggle to top 20 per cent.

With the sun shining brightly as voting started on Sunday and the result seen as a foregone conclusion, the only cloud on Stoiber’s horizon was the slight worry that fine weather and the annual Oktoberfest beer festival might keep some voters away.

Schroeder has repeatedly said that once the Bavarian election is out of the way, he expects talks to begin on his “Agenda 2010” package of welfare, health and pension reforms and a set of tax cuts he is counting on to kick start the economy.

The conservatives can block most of the measures through their control of the upper house of parliament or Bundesrat and contacts were at a standstill in the run-up to the election.

With Bavaria’s economy comfortably outperforming the country as a whole and unemployment well below the national average, Stoiber’s camp saw no benefit in associating themselves with unpopular welfare cuts during the campaign.—Reuters