September 13, 2003	Saturday	Rajab 15, 1424

STOCKHOLM, Sept 12: Swedes were left guessing on Friday whether the killing of foreign minister Anna Lindh would influence their country’s referendum on adopting the euro, and reverse a trend which has seen the “no” vote largely ahead.

Two differing polls completed after Lindh’s death on Thursday failed to provide a clear picture on whether Swedes would vote on Sunday to abandon the krona in favour of the single European currency.

Lindh had been a high-profile campaigner in favour of joining the 12-nation eurozone, but the issue has been hotly debated in Sweden and sharply divided political circles.

One poll, by Skop institute, credited Lindh’s “yes” camp with a dramatic increase in voter intentions, showing euro supporters and opponents neck-and-neck after Lindh’s death from stab wounds sustained in an attack in a department store on Wednesday.

Before her death, the “no” camp had 58 percent support, compared with 42 for the “yes” side, the poll said.

“The Sweden euro vote is back in the balance,” commented James Knightley, an economist at ING Financial Markets.

Skop, which has conducted monthly polls on the issue since 1999, questioned 1,103 people on Tuesday and Wednesday, and a further 792 people on Thursday, the day of Lindh’s death.

But a second poll, by Sifo for the TT news agency, gave the “no” camp a lead of 12 percentage points at 50 percent, compared with 38 percent for euro supporters, confirming an opinion poll trend seen over recent weeks.

Sifo surveyed 1,000 people for the poll, which was conducted late on Thursday, after Lindh succumbed to her injuries.

Analysts said neither poll was sufficient to gauge the full size of the sympathy vote after the Lindh murder.

While Skop’s poll showed an impressive swing towards a “yes”, it was a special survey, which asked “How do you intend to vote in the referendum” compared to its earlier polls which asked the question “Do you support Swedish euro entry”.

But observers also questioned whether Sifo’s conclusion that the slaying of Lindh had not changed the odds against Swedish euro entry was really credible.

“The truth is probably in somewhere in-between the two,” said Steve Barrow, an economist following the Swedish euro campaign for Bear Stearns investment bank in London.

“But ‘in-between’, in this case, still means ‘No’,” he said.

Prime Minister Goeran Persson and other Swedish party leaders decided to go ahead with the referendum even though the nation is in shock after Lindh’s death.

And analysts have wondered whether the tragedy might swing the “yes” vote to victory.

“There usually tends to be a lot of support for the sitting government when this kind of grave national event happens,” Arne Modig, a researcher at the Temo polling institute, said.

In financial markets, the Swedish krona and Swedish government bonds rose strongly following the knife attack on Lindh, indicating that her death had increased the chances of Swedish voting to swap their currency for the euro.

But, on balance, the odds were still stacked in favour of the “no”, analysts said.

“It remains a very tough call, but we remain of the view that Sweden will oppose euro entry, albeit by a very narrow margin,” Knightley said.

On Friday, the krona level reflected this view. The currency traded at 9.10 against the euro in late European trading, having firmed to 9.07 on the release of the first poll, before easing back following the second survey.

Even before the tragedy, the “yes” camp insisted a late swing was still possible, given high voter volatility in previous Swedish key votes.

“It’s a race against time now, but I hope and I believe that we will succeed,” Anna Lindh herself told Dagens Industri daily in an interview published on the morning of the fatal attack.

On Friday, press editorials called on Swedes to vote in Sunday’s referendum, in memory of Anna Lindh.

“One way to honour the victim is to vote on Sunday,” said daily Svenska Dagbladet.

But it went on to encourage Swedes to vote according to their own views on the euro, even if they were not those that Lindh defended.

“Those who were going to vote ‘yes’ must do so, and those who were thinking of voting ‘no’ must do so, too,” the editorial said.

Others agreed that, however difficult this may seem in their hour of mourning, Swedes should think of the long-term future of their country first.

“The euro vote is a vote for life,” said Steve Barrow.—AFP