September 10, 2003	Wednesday	Rajab 12, 1424

PARIS, Sept 9: Deprived of their former sanctuary in Afghanistan, extremists have sought refuge in southeast Asia, the Horn of Africa and Pakistan, making it hard for investigators to track then down, experts say.

Since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, the Al Qaeda terror network has been forced to adopt a more decentralized operating strategy.

Two years later, its members are living on deserted islands, in remote jungles or deserts, or in unstable countries facing civil war to elude investigators, according to French intelligence sources.

“The epicentre of the training camp and recruitment structure has shifted toward southeast Asia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, because these are zones that are extremely difficult to monitor, and where Islamist activities have taken on political importance,” said a former French counter-terrorism official.

Al Qaeda operatives often tap into local religious organizations with which they sealed ties in Afghan training camps in order to benefit from their logistical expertise, according to a Sri Lankan expert, Rohan Gunaratna.

“These groups Al Qaeda trained in the past in Afghanistan — now it is relying on these groups. This is gratitude: ‘I helped you in the past, now you help me,’” said Mr Gunaratna, citing the example of Jemaah Islamiyah (JI), blamed for the Oct 2002 attacks in Bali that left more than 200 people dead.

According to several sources, many of those close to Osama bin Laden are now living in Pakhtoon areas of southeastern Afghanistan and in the tribal zones of Pakistan.

Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, believed to be Al Qaeda’s third-in-command and the alleged mastermind of the Sept 11 attacks, was arrested in Pakistan in March.

In parts of Yemen that are beyond government control and in Somalia, ravaged by civil war since 1991, “small cells of about 10 people each can train, under the protection of tribes, clans or families”, the former French official said.

Southern Algeria is also considered a likely hotbed of activity, with criminal elements able to move freely in and out of neighboring Mali or Niger.

But experts say the new training sites are probably not as well developed as those that were set up in Afghanistan, explaining that they are likely small and more mobile, and more focused on mental toughness than physical strength.

“These camps don’t have the infrastructure that existed in Afghanistan, nor do they have (Osama) bin Laden’s money, and they can’t have in one place everything that they had” in Afghanistan, said one anti-terrorism expert.

But other analysts say extremists do not need the massive backing they had in Afghanistan to organize new attacks.

“They can train anywhere — in a house, in basements, in protected safehouses. They have military manuals with which they’ve been provided, with videos that have been duplicated and distributed,” said Magnus Ranstorp, director of the Center for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence at the University of St Andrews, Scotland.

“They just need to have experienced people who can assist them, who would channel the energy,” Mr Ranstorp added.

The scattering of radicals has complicated the task of investigators, who are trying to track them down and quash their activities.

“In reality, it’s more dangerous to have this fragmented diaspora: we no longer have the means to control fixed points of passage that we had” when many operatives went through training camps in Afghanistan or Bosnia, said one French intelligence source. —AFP