September 8, 2003	Monday	Rajab 10, 1424

The Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) seems to have developed a fatal proclivity for jumping the gun or firing without checking if the gun is loaded.

It first came up with exaggerated claims on wheat produce and recently turned soothsayer for cotton, predicting output of 11.2 million bales against a target of 10.55 million bales.

One would be only too happy if MINFAL’s wish-based assessment comes true. But forecasting crop size at a stage when there can be so many slips between the cup and the lip defies all logic and reflects on an unfortunate lack of professionalism on the part of officials. Either that or they live in a private world.

The estimate of MINFAL was made public on August 21. Rains followed soon after and a certain percentage of the standing crop was damaged. The extent of loss has not been estimated so far but it is certain that the rains did not help increase produce. If anything, they created questions as weather turned humid, a condition that is ideal for pest propagation. Rains add to the greening of the crop and that attracts pests as well as delays boll formation. A quiet has however been maintained by the official front since rains in southern Punjab.

While officials can produce their evaluations on any forum, the one selected for announcing crop size expectations was the Federal Textile Board (FTB). The textile sector is a major component of the cotton scenario, albeit not a sympathetic one. It has developed a reputation for exploiting growers and working for its own gains that are the result of undermining the farmer’s interests.

Reports of a high crop invariably affect the price of the produce and are instrumental in bringing it down. The MINFAL announcement came midway through the season and could depress the market for growers. Lower prices that do not meet the investment comprising expenses and labour dishearten farmers and can cause a loss in the produce. On the other side, low prices strengthen the exploitative hand of the textile sector.

That the expectations of a higher output were aired after rains had played havoc with the crop in some parts of the Sindh province made the announcement all the more questionable. Even though Sindh’s contribution to cotton output in not high, it is a factor not to be ignored. Weather consistently conducive for cotton is a vital, indeed basic condition for the cotton crop. Pests are almost invariably present in cotton fields but the severity of their attack is one of the factors determining the crop size. Admittedly, the Punjab government’s agriculture department has become quite alert and effective in the last few years but a pest attack undermines the crop, whatever the remedial measures.

Reports inform of about over 40 percent less use of fertilizer this year in comparison with the last season. That cannot be helpful for the crop. Similarly, pesticide application is also said to be lower this year. These aren’t the best conditions for producing a bumper crop.

What MINFAL has said amounts to declaring that a near unprecedented crop is on the way. The maximum out-put in the country was in the year 1991-92 when a total of 12.82 million bales were produced. This was followed by a slide-down as cotton leaf curl virus (CLVC) hit cotton and the total yield started sliding down. It came down to the lowest crop in many years in 193-94 when the yield was 8.04 million bales.

Some remarkable research work of Pakistan’s scientists produced virus resistant varieties that were of higher yield than the existing varieties as well. Credit goes to Pakistan Cotton Research Institute at Multan that, under the leadership of Dr. Zahoor Ahmed, introduced high yield resistant varieties and saved crop that had been devastated by CLVC in some other countries to the extent that cotton cultivation had to be abandoned by them for a period of five years. Good work was also done at Faisalabad. These varieties proved life saving for cotton in Pakistan.

Regrettably the textile sector, that draws its profits from the sweat and toil of farmers, they are in fact its lifeline, has not invested in research. Still, cotton cultivation not only survived but also thrived to reach 10.1 million bales in 2000-01 (this is the government’s claim; ginners place the crop at 9.7 m bales) and 10.6 m bales (also a contested figure) last year. Does that make the fields fertile for a quantative jump in the crop size? The answer is in the negative. Even if the growth of cotton has shown an upward trend that does not make for a huge leap in produce.

One wishes MINFAL well and hopes that its expectations are bailed out by facts but facts are a few weeks away from this point in time and there is no earthly reason to declare that Pakistan’s cotton is headed for producing the second biggest crop in the country’s history. There should be other ways of proving that the Ministry is performing well. Guesstimates are not going to take MINFAL or the country to any desirable destination. They should be avoided to the maximum.