July 11, 2003	Friday	Jumadi-ul-Awwal 10, 1424

TEHRAN: Intimidated, leaderless and few in number, Iran’s pro-democracy protesters face an uncertain future with little to show for several nights of sporadic unrest against the country’s religious establishment.

Hundreds of people converged on the streets around Tehran University on Wednesday night in defiance of an official ban on gatherings for the anniversary of violent 1999 student unrest.

Apart from scuffles between police, youths and hardline vigilantes, the protest passed off with little incident. There was none of the chanting of virulent slogans against the religious elite that could be heard during 10 nights of protests in Tehran and other cities last month.

“You couldn’t even call it a protest really,” said a foreign diplomat who went to see events for himself. “Most people were just sitting in their cars, too scared even to honk their horns. I hardly think the government is quaking in its boots.”

Unlike in June’s protests, which mushroomed unexpectedly out of a small student rally against privatization and spread to more than half a dozen cities, authorities were well prepared for trouble on Wednesday.

Police, riot police and vigilantes fiercely loyal to conservative clerics were out in force.

“Intimidation is a key factor. Not many people are prepared to risk being beaten up or arrested,” a European diplomat said.

Communication is another weak point for the protesters. Mobile telephone networks across Tehran appeared to be blocked for much of Wednesday night.

Local and foreign media were instructed not to cover the demonstrations and the signals of US-based Iranian exile satellite channels, which played a key role in promoting June’s protests, were jammed.

Many expect the current wave of protests to enter a period of dormancy, although they could flare up again at short notice.

“The pent-up anger is still there, beneath the surface. But for it to seriously take off you need a catalyst, you need a cause, you need organization and leadership. It’s a big task,” one European diplomat said.

Most analysts agree the protests reflect widespread frustration among Iranians, the vast majority of whom were born after the 1979 Islamic revolution. But an effective channel for that frustration remains elusive.

“People have a wide range of complaints. Some want more democracy, some want more social freedom and some just want jobs and lower prices,” said political analyst Hossein Rassam.

“They need a common cause, a vehicle to express their anger,” he said.

Just a few years ago millions of Iranians felt pro-reform President Mohammad Khatami would serve as the vehicle to deliver their hopes for a more prosperous, open and democratic society. Now, many have lost hope in Khatami’s ability to overcome resistance to change from powerful hardline leaders.

“Khatami has just prolonged the status quo,” said one frustrated housewife. “I voted for him but now I wish I hadn’t. Maybe without him things would have changed by now.”

With political disillusionment on the rise, many Iranians look to university students to take the lead in the protests.

But students have paid a heavy price for playing that role in recent years.

Some 800 students were among the 4,000 people arrested during and after June’s demonstrations. Dozens of others were seriously injured when hardline Islamic vigilantes burst into dormitories to attack students with chains, knives and clubs.

Plainclothes men arrested three student leaders on Wednesday just after they held a news conference to announce the cancellation of events to mark the 1999 student unrest.

“The student movement has effectively been emasculated,” said one European diplomat. “Every time one of their leaders stands up and says something he’s grabbed off the streets and isn’t heard from for weeks.”

Most students are too scared to talk openly to the foreign media for fear of arrest. A few still dare to speak out.

“Everyone in our country, be they a worker, teacher, businessman or whatever wants freedom, democracy and respect for human rights and in the future people will become more and more critical,” Mehdi Habibi, a senior member of Iran’s largest pro-reform student organization, said on Thursday.

“Today’s world is too small for dictators and dictatorships,” he said.—Reuters