LONDON: If you want respect, show muscle — or so Iranian leaders may have reasoned when they confirmed their completion of tests of a medium-range ballistic missile capable of hitting Israel and other countries in the region.
Already accused by the United States of seeking nuclear arms and delivery systems, Iran announced on Monday that the “final test” of the Shahab-3 missile had taken place a few weeks ago.
The timing was doubly sensitive in view of this week’s visit to Tehran by Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, who will press Iran to open its nuclear power programme and prove it is not secretly developing atomic bombs.
“It’s slightly surprising because they have been trying to calm fears they are going down the nuclear route,” Tim Garden, a defence expert at London’s Royal Institute of International Affairs, said of Iran’s disclosure of progress on the Shahab-3.
Israel, which falls within the missile’s 1,300 kms range, points to Iran’s nuclear and missile ambitions as a deadly threat and wants the world to thwart them.
Indeed, some Iranians believe that last week’s Israeli media reports about the Shahab-3 test were deliberately designed to force an Iranian response and keep the heat on Tehran.
Iran denies seeking nuclear arms or harbouring aggressive intentions, but sees the Shahab-3 as a vital deterrent against the Jewish state, the Middle East’s only nuclear power.
It also perceives a threat from the United States, which has forces in Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries within reach of the Shahab-3.
“It’s more of a deterrent than anything else,” said Ali Ansari, an Iranian academic at Britain’s Durham University.
He said the missile programme had sprung from the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, when Iraqi Scud missiles were crashing into Tehran and Iran lacked the means to retaliate.
“It’s also to do with having strategic reach, not just to deter Israelis, but other potential enemies. There is a prestige factor. They feel it’s what a regional power should have.”
US HOSTILITY: The United States, which has called Iran part of an “axis of evil”, gives short shrift to Iranian security logic.
“We’ve seen Iran’s efforts to develop its missile capabilities, including flight testing, as a threat to the region and a threat to US interests in the region,” State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said on Monday.
But Iranian political analyst Amir Ali Nourbakhsh said Iran must be given security assurances if it was to bow to pressure to sign the additional protocol to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) that would permit more intrusive inspections.
“Maybe the Shahab-3 could deter Israel, even if it does not have a nuclear warhead, but the United States and the European Union should assure Iran that its security won’t be undermined if it signs the additional protocol,” Nourbakhsh said.
The Shahab-3, first tested in 1998, is based on the North Korean Nodong-1 missile but has been improved with Russian technology. Questions remain about its effectiveness.
“They have had real problems with the testing of this,” said Robin Hughes, deputy news editor of Jane’s Defence Weekly, adding that the latest launch followed several failed ones.
He said it was not clear if the missile was already in operational service with the armed forces and or how accurate it was. “It would be a disaster if they got it wrong,” he said.
Uzi Rubin, co-founder of Israel’s Arrow anti-missile system, said word on the Shahab-3’s readiness was no surprise.
“The Iranians have long made clear their intention to develop the missile, with Israel as its intended target. One of the threats we had in mind in developing the Arrow was a long-range Iranian missile,” he said.
“The Shahab-3 can deliver whatever warhead the Iranians come up with. If they have nuclear capability, then they can have a long-range nuclear missile. The Shahab would be less successful with biological or chemical agents, however,” Rubin added. While Iran denies trying to make atomic bombs, stretched Scuds like the Shahab-3 could be used to deliver them.
“There is an unspoken affinity between a nuclear programme and missiles of this sort,” said Ian Bellany, professor of politics at Britain’s Lancaster University.
ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency chief will renew his call for Iran to sign the additional protocol to the NPT when he meets President Mohammad Khatami and atomic energy chief Gholamreza Aghazadeh on Wednesday.—Reuters
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