June 30, 2003	Monday	Rabi-us-Sani 29,1424

GAZA CITY: The three-month truce announced by Palestinian factions on Sunday appears to be a tactical move rather than a change of ideology in hardline movements, but analysts reckoned the move could still give peace a chance.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad jointly announced a three-month suspension of anti-Israeli attacks, while Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat’s Fatah and other factions were expected to issue a separate truce statement later on Sunday.

“It’s too soon to talk of an ideological change on the part of Hamas. They opted for a truce because it was the lesser of two evils,” said Palestinian political analyst Ali Jarbawi.

“It was either the truce or increasingly coming under US and Israeli fire,” he said.

The truce comes after weeks of intense negotiations spearheaded by Palestinian Prime Minister Mahmud Abbas and is conditional on Israel stopping its policy of assassinations and raids in the Palestinian territories.

It coincided with a visit to the region by US national security adviser Condoleezza Rice and marked the second significant step towards implementing the international peace roadmap after Israel and the Palestinians reached a security agreement the same day.

Another Palestinian analyst said Hamas had matured politically and understood it needed to compromise.

“Hamas realized the balance of power changed regionally: the United States has become the sole, unchallenged power after the war on Iraq,” said Ibrahim Dakak.

He pointed to pressures from US Middle Eastern allies — Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia — to convince Hamas and Islamic Jihad to endorse a truce.

And domestically “Hamas could not afford to be isolated when other political factions were ready to abide by a ceasefire,” he said.

Some of the ceasefire talks were held in Cairo with the mediation of Egypt’s security chief Omar Suleiman and Hamas and Islamic Jihad leaders expressed their desire to also notify Qatar and Saudi Arabia of the agreement.

But it was unclear whether the hardline groups, which do not recognize Israel’s right to exist and want any future state to cover the whole of historic Palestine, would consider going beyond a three-month tactical truce.

Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has already warned the army would continue to take out what he described as “ticking bombs” but Sunday’s announcement made it clear the truce would no longer stand if Israel continued its killings.

“If quiet prevails on both sides and Palestinian living conditions truly improve, Hamas will lose ground ideologically,” predicted political analyst Hassan al-Kashef.

“Palestinians will ask for peace and it will be up to Hamas to choose between pragmatism and ideology,” he said.

“Hamas knows there is a limit to the suffering people are ready to accept. It may have chosen to pause for three months to rethink its position: either armed struggle or transition to mainstream politics,” said Dakak.

Should militant groups opt to swap their guns for the ballot box, it will not happen overnight. Analysts and security officials warned that Israel’s demand, which is backed by Washington, that they be disarmed and dismantled could wreck the truce.

“Disarming them would lead to infighting, and that’s probably what Israel wants,” said Dakak.

“If (US President George W.) Bush is serious in advancing the roadmap, he will distance himself from Israel on that issue,” said Dakak.

Jarbawi said he expected the United States “will soften its position on dismantling armed groups if the truce is respected.”

“We don’t want a civil war here. We too want peace and security but not at the expense of our internal stability,” said Gaza preventive security chief Rashid Abu Shbek.

“What is required of us is to stop attacks against Israel and if weapons are not used against Israelis or illegally then we will have accomplished our mission,” said Abu Shbek.

Israeli and Palestinian security officials said on Sunday they had agreed on an Israeli troop withdrawal from reoccupied areas in the Gaza Strip in exchange for a crackdown on militants there by the Palestinian security services.—AFP