ISLAMABAD, June 3: The output of current wheat crop may come to 19.25 million tons from 8.09 million hectares which, though short of the target, still exceeds last year’s harvest (18.23 million) by 5.6 per cent, the Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) stated here on Tuesday.

The latest estimate is based on the reports received from the crop reporting cells of provincial agriculture departments. Nevertheless, the final and definite assessment of crop size may not be available before the end of June, Minfal spokesman said.

The ministry had set a target of 19.75 million tons on the basis of the assumption that the wheat acreage this year would be 8.08 million hectares. Due to better availability of water plus higher prices obtained by cotton and rice earlier, farmers were encouraged to use better and timely inputs such as seed, fertilizer and weedicides.

The impressive stand of wheat fields led to the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) in its meeting held on March 8, 2003, to further raise the estimate of the crop to 20.63 million tons, even though acreage under wheat was nearly 100,000 hectares lower than the initial assumption.

The spokesman attributed the drop in original estimate to a number of factors having to do mainly with the behaviour of the elements. One of these was aphid attack, an insect called ‘kala taila’ in the Punjab cotton belt. This can, of course, be also due to the possibility that the pesticides used on cotton crop in excessive quantities also killed natural enemy of this enemy of wheat.

Other factors, cited by Minfal, were: (a) rise in temperature in the grain-formation stage; (b) inability to drain rain water in rice belt; (c) rust attack in northern areas; and (d) virulence of weeds following heavy rains.

Asked about the outlook for availability of wheat throughout the year, the spokesman recalled that the government’s wheat procurement policy this year had envisaged purchase of wheat from farmers by both the public and private sectors.

The provincial food departments and PASSCO had to face stiff competition from the private sector businessmen, who offered prices above the minimum support price of Rs300 per 40 kg. So far, these government agencies had procured about 3.5 million tons. This is 1.8 million tons lower than the original target of 5.3 million tons.