May 27, 2003	Tuesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 24,1424

KARACHI, May 26: The KSE 100-share index on Monday breached through the barrier of 3,100 points as bulls were not inclined to loosen their grip on the market at least until the national budget on June 7, ignoring political risks associated with the LFO deadlock. It ended at 3,106.41, up 26.46 points.

Analysts predict the current forward thrust of the market will continue, boosted by pre-budget speculative buying and bargain-hunting, although it will manifest itself in a big way by early next month.

“It will not call the index’s meteoric rise to a record level as a prelude of its upward march to some new targets but one thing appears certain that the liquidity-driven rally could work wonders in the coming sessions also,” an analyst who is still in two minds about the future direction of the market says.

Technical corrections notwithstanding, the possibility of a massive retreat at this stage appears remote, he says. “The future key of the index is now in pretty safe hands.”

After rising further higher, it finally finished at 3,106.41 points as compared to 3,079.95 at the last weekend as leading base shares managed to put on fresh gains. Over the last three weeks, it has successfully breached through the barriers of 2,900, 3,000 and 3,100 points, gaining over 200 points or about 12 per cent after bettering its all-time records in quick succession.

Pakistan Oilfields on reports of higher profits and early selloff and PSO were among the overvalued shares, which led the market advance to a new record level but the notable feature was that most of the second-liners attracted bulk of the support as an attractive bait of capital gains dominated the entire trading.

“The rally above the 3,100 index level was terribly broad-based as investor’s buying interest spilled over to a wide sectors of the listed shares,” analysts said. “Never before in the history of the KSE such a record number (478) of shares came in for trading in a single session.”

It was more than a half of the total listed shares of 704 and signals that pre-budget speculative buying has entered the market though on selected counters and could manifest itself in a big way by early next month.

Some years back the number of total listed companies was 862, but it has progressively shrank to the present total owing to delisting sought by some of the managements, while some others defaulted for violating the listing rules.

For the last couple of years, the number of active shares seldom touch the high mark of 300 both sides including the static ones, but the figure of 478 active scrips reflects that the market is heading to establish new records both in terms of index and the extent of capital gains.

“The number has certainly given the depth to stock trading as bulk of the support outflowed to the second-liners from the blue chip counters,” says a leading broker adding

“this ensures it may not be possible for the speculators or the bargain-hunters to outwit the small savers that easily.”

He says a number of investors are also unloading their positions in the high-profile shares to buy the low-priced ones in apparent bid to realize quick gains rather than making long-term investment.

Plus signs dominated the trading list under the lead of Javed Omer and Pakistan Oilfields, which rose by Rs8.60 to Rs9.40 followed by Sitara Chemicals, Dreamworld, Shahtaj Sugar, Pakistan Refinery, Shafiq Textiles and Bhanero Textiles, up Rs4 to Rs7.85. There were several others, which rose over Rs2.

Atlas Honda and Siemens Pakistan were leading among the losers, off Rs4.20 and Rs10 followed by Metropolitan Bank, Shell Pakistan, Reckitt and Benckiser, Otsuak Pakistan and Artistic Denim, off Rs1.20 to Rs3.55.

Trading volume suffered a share decline at 277m shares from the previous 346m shares but the advancing shares maintained a strong lead over the losing ones at 276 to 153, with 49 shares holding on to the last levels.

D.G. Khan Cement topped the list of most actives on reports of higher export to Afghanistan, higher by Rs1.10 at Rs19.45 on 34m shares, followed by KESC, firm 20 paisa at Rs6.10 on 21m shares, Hub-Power unchanged at Rs35.25 on 19m shares, PTCL, steady by five paisa at Rs26.15 also on 19m shares, Pakistan Oilfields, higher by Rs9.20 at Rs202.95 on 17m shares and PSO, up 25 paisa at Rs214.50 on 9m shares.

FFC-Jordan Fertilizer was also actively traded, up 30 paisa on 17m shares, Maple Leaf Cement, higher 75 paisa on 14m shares, First Prudential Modaraba, steady by 10 paisa on 13m shares and Sui Southern Gas, higher Rs1.40 on 9m shares.

FORWARD COUNTER: Speculative issues on the forward counter showed fresh modest gains where trading was also resumed in the June settlements side by side the maturing May contracts. All the shares rose barring PSO and Fauji Fertilizer’s June settlements, which were marked down by Rs1.45 and Rs1.85 at Rs213.30 and Rs84.50 respectively.

Hub-Power again led the list of actives, easy five paisa on 4m shares followed by PTCL, up three paisa at Rs26.23 on 3m shares, PSO, off five paisa at Rs214.70 on 3m shares and Sui Northern Gas, easy 10 paisa at Rs32.05 on 3m shares.

DEFAULTER COMPANIES: Shares of three dozen came in for active support under the lead of Schon Modaraba, up 15 paisa at Rs1.20 on 0.146m shares followed by Mehran Jute, higher also by the same amount at Rs1.50 on 77,000 shares and Suzuki Motorcycles, up 70 paisa at Rs14.40 on 68,000 shares.