May 6, 2003	Tuesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 3, 1424

DAMASCUS: When the United States was pushing the UN Security Council to take action against Iraq last fall, Syria joined the unanimous vote demanding that Saddam Hussein surrender any weapons of mass destruction. Yet, according to US officials, Syria helped ship sophisticated military hardware to the Iraqi regime.

The war in Iraq and the growing power of the United States in the region has put Syria on the spot. Seeking to strengthen its troubled economy, Syria wants to reach out to the West. Yet for domestic reasons, it must continue to carry the torch of Arab nationalism and support anti-Israel groups that are considered terrorists by the United States.

It is an uncomfortable position for the government of President Bashar Assad, 37, who replaced his late father nearly three years ago. He tried to resolve some of those contradictions when he met with Colin L. Powell in Damascus on Saturday, assuring the US secretary of state that Syria has begun to close the Damascus offices of extremist groups.

Surrounded by US-friendly regimes and Arab states that have made uneasy peace with Israel, Syria holds a lonely vigil at the head of the hardline Arab states.

That coterie — abandoned by most Arab rulers who view its ideology as outdated — lost much of its steam and political relevance with the fall of Saddam’s regime.

Pursuing the familiar path of Arab nationalism now carries considerably more risks for this nation. But analysts here say the Syrian president, as well the old guard loyal to the legacy of his father, Hafez Assad, believe it holds the prospect of reward as well.

The younger Assad’s government can shore up its domestic popularity, and earn the admiration of Arabs across the region, by standing up to the United States over issues close to the Arab cause.

But rather than simply restating its old policies with stale rhetoric, Shuebi said, the government is trying to refashion its diplomacy to appear more dynamic and constructive. It is doing so by building better ties with coalition members Great Britain and Spain, “the two most desirable allies in Europe,” he said.

Syria is also using its seat on the Security Council to push for a declaration of the Middle East as a zone free of weapons mass destruction, an initiative designed to counter Washington’s allegation that Syria possesses chemical weapons and put Israel, which is believed to have nuclear weapons, on the spot.

Repackaging of the government’s policies, however, won’t protect Syria from the risks they entail.

Because the government here is convinced that Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will not negotiate a return of the Golan Heights, which Israeli troops seized during the 1967 Middle East War, and that the Bush administration will not broker a peace between the two nations.

For that reason, Damascus sees little incentive to entirely cut its support to Palestinian militants groups and to the Hezbollah militia in Lebanon.

“Syria is not likely to submit to demands — these are an expression of colonialism, and will not work,” said Nabil Sukkar, a former World Bank economist.

At the same time, the regime is worried that its policies could prompt more than just warnings from Washington, and that short-term measures, such as sealing Syria’s border with Iraq to prevent the entry of former Iraqi officials, will only temporarily alleviate American pressure.

Damascus is already struggling to cope with the economic consequences of the war. The oil pipeline that once pumped an estimated 150,000 barrels a day of subsidized oil to Syria has been shut off, preventing Assad’s government from exporting an equivalent amount of oil to earn an estimated $500 million a year.

Iraq was a major trade partner, and Syrian economists worry its market will be off-limits to their nation’s exporters as long as the American military controls Iraqi affairs. Factories that were built to supply the Iraqi market will likely have to shut down.

If tensions with Washington persist, the United States could levy economic sanctions against Syria and pressure international lending agencies to cut off funds. While such sanctions alone might not create an economic problem, as there is little trade between the two countries, a diplomatic campaign against Syria could discourage foreign investment. —Dawn/LAT-WP News Service (c) Los Angeles Times.