May 6, 2003	Tuesday	Rabi-ul-Awwal 3, 1424

BAGHDAD: Nearly a month after Baghdad fell to US forces, the reconstruction effort is struggling to get off the ground, crime is a rising problem, Iraqis desperate for jobs and security are becoming angry, and the democracy promised by President Bush seems rife with risk.

The continuing disorder in a country used to the repressive but absolute stability provided by Saddam Hussein is fuelling at least a deep skepticism about US intentions and at worst a dangerous anti-Americanism. As competing religious, tribal and territorial political forces move to fill the void, they threaten to divide the country rather than unite it.

Interviews with political analysts, exile figures and ordinary Iraqis, coupled with developments on the ground, indicate that America’s power to control Iraq and shape its future is increasingly threatened by the pervasive uncertainty.

On many fronts, US officials appear to have been wholly unprepared for what awaited them in Iraq: From mundane concerns such as how to cope with the lack of telephones, to philosophical questions such as how to respond to the desire of many Iraqis for an Islamic state.

“The Americans and the British became obsessed with getting rid of Saddam; they thought he was responsible for all the catastrophes in Iraq,” said Wamid Nadmi, a political science professor at Baghdad University. “But they have opened a Pandora’s box.”

US officials say they are aware that time is of the essence. “We’re moving as fast as we can,” said Lewis Lucke, reconstruction chief for Lt. Gen. Jay Garner, the US interim administrator. “I don’t ever think it’s fast enough.”

US officials point out that electricity is on again in much of the country; oil is being pumped in the southern fields; and many police, fire and emergency workers have been given a $20 stipend and are returning to their jobs. There have been numerous local success stories as well, with individual US military commanders helping to reopen schools and protecting public facilities from looters.

But often, US officials seem stymied by their desire to get the country running while not appearing to be an oppressive occupying force. Efforts to restore security, revive services, begin reconstruction and transition to a new government are encountering difficulty.

The looting that began the day after Saddam’s regime fell has yet to end. Without a true police force in place, the wide-scale stealing has spawned a culture of lawlessness. Gun markets flourish on Baghdad’s back streets, and armed robberies and carjackings have become common.

Garner’s Office for Reconstruction and Humanitarian Assistance, responsible for running the country, has yet to make its presence felt. With mass media in the capital limited to a single radio station, the office has yet to figure out how to communicate with the Iraqi people. There is no US government office accessible to ordinary Iraqis.

Many key contracts for rebuilding Iraq were not awarded until after the war started, and many contractors are waiting in hotels in Kuwait for the green light from the US military that it is safe to come in.

And as the United States tries to help set up a new Iraqi government, the exile groups that many US officials hoped Iraqis would rally around have won little popular support. Meanwhile, the organizations that are showing political strength — including some Shia groups backed by Iran — are potentially hostile to US aims.

The lack of a visible American presence has sown doubts about US intentions and frustrated ordinary Iraqis. The few reconstruction steps Garner and his staff, including giving out money to returning workers, have yet to be applied evenly throughout Iraq.

US Secretary of State Colin L. Powell predicted on Sunday that progress will accelerate. “As stability is gained throughout the country and security is obtained, and as the various ministries come back up online, more and more other sorts of organizations will come in,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press.”

But Richard Lugar, R-Ind., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, expressed frustration on Sunday over reconstruction in general and reports of infighting between the State Department and the Pentagon over rebuilding plans.

More than anywhere, it is on the political front that the US faces dilemmas. The country is a barely intact jigsaw puzzle of competing groups divided by religious sect, tribal affiliation and ethnicity.

Washington’s main entrance to Iraq was via the exile groups it had sponsored in Britain and the US. While those groups are organized and speak in the American idiom of democracy and governance, they have little support among the Iraqi public.

As exile groups have sought to create power bases, some have sent signals that they make their own law. They have been travelling with heavily armed bodyguards and in some cases have appropriated homes and buildings for their own use.

While US officials have spoken repeatedly about the importance of indigenous Iraqi leaders, those who have broad recognition are primarily religious figures who, to varying degrees, support an Islamic government for Iraq. With the United States giving limited attention to any indigenous figures, exiles are increasingly confident that they will dominate the next phase of government in Iraq.

Within 10 days of Baghdad’s fall, for instance, mosques began providing critical services — including water distribution, garbage collection and security guards — that Americans have been unable to organize.

Clerics are asserting control over an increasing number of institutions. Walk into any clinic in Saddam City and someone will quickly introduce himself as an emissary from the Al Hawsa movement. The Shia organization, based in the holy city of Najaf, encompasses an array of well-funded charitable organizations. A number of Iraqis believe the group is funded in part by Iran. The group also has connections to a number of Muslim clerics, some with political ambitions.

So far, US officials appear to have had little contact with Shia groups inside Iraq. An exile Shia group was added only recently to the inner circle of exile organizations with which the Americans are working.

Without involving Shias, it is unlikely that the United States will be able to win the hearts and minds of Iraqis. Although Shias are hardly monolithic in their views, they make up roughly 60 per cent of the country.

The only potential countervailing force, analysts say, are the supporters of Saddam’s Baath Party who used to run the country. They know how to organize people, they have a political base, and they have concrete administrative knowledge.

For the United States, an alliance with the Baathists would be a double-edged sword. Without them, it will be hard to get the country running, but working with them would thrust the Americans right into the arms of the people they just ousted from power. It also would feed distrust among Iraqis at large about government agencies.—Dawn/The LAT-WP News Service (c) The Los Angeles Times.