Resuming the dialogue
By Maqbool Ahmad Bhatty
WITHIN hours of an announcement from Washington that US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage would be travelling to the subcontinent to promote detente, the Indian prime minister announced in Srinagar on April 18 that he would be ready for talks with Pakistan as well as with Kashmir groups. Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali responded positively, saying, “we welcome it, we appreciate it.”
The conciliatory gesture from India was overdue, after the expected resumption of the Agra process was stalled following the 9/11 events. Mr Vajpayee did not drop India’s condition that Pakistan must stop “cross-border terrorism” but he did say that all issues should be settled through talks. “Guns will not solve the matter but brotherhood will”, he said. “We again extend the hand of friendship but it has to be a two-way road”. Prime Minister Jamali also said that while Pakistan stood by its stand on Kashmir,”once talks start there could be flexibility from both sides.”
Mr Vajpayee’s resumption of his leadership role reflects a realization in policy-making circles in India that the extremist stance of the Advani group was becoming a liability. Following the electoral success in Gujarat, the strategy of demonizing Pakistan and Muslims was not working, as evident from the results of elections in Himachal Pradesh. Furthermore, the international community could not remain indifferent to Pakistan’s repeated offers of a dialogue and their rejection by India.
There should be no doubt that Mr Armitage, when he comes, will address the issue of terrorist incursions into Kashmir as well as the resumption of the Indo-Pakistan peace dialogue. This was also implied in the announcement of his visit. The high level of tension between the two South Asian neighbours has remained a source of deep concern to Washington. The US has not bought the Indian thesis that those struggling for their right of self-determination in Kashmir are all “terrorists” and “separatists.” After having achieved the occupation of Iraq, with comparative ease, the US would be keen to revive its image of a peacemaker, and a backer of democracy and human rights.
The resumption of dialogue, when it takes place, has a ready-made agenda of problems that must be addressed. Since the terrorist attack on the Indian parliament on December 13, 2001, the BJP government has brought down the level of interaction between the two countries steadily. The cessation of travel by road and rail and the ban on the use of air space for flights were enforced almost immediately. India also withdrew its high commissioner, and when Pakistan did not follow suit, virtually expelled the Pakistani high commissioner five months later. The number of visas issued was curtailed drastically, and cultural and sporting links snapped.
Among the earliest steps to be taken would be the resumption of travel links by land and air, starting possibly with the lifting of ban on overflights. India had shown readiness to relax on this point, since it was much more seriously affected but Pakistan would not relent on a single issue when India was keeping up pressure on other counts. Given the stormy nature of bilateral relations and the threats of pre-emption used lately, one needs to be cautious about the prospects ahead. The influence of the hawks in India, headed by Mr L.K. Advani, will not disappear suddenly.
There was an expectation that some preliminary moves might materialize before Mr Armitage actually travels to the subcontinent in early May. As the bigger country, and the one that initiated the estrangement, it would be up to India to set the tempo for a process of detente. However, from the statements made in the Indian parliament during a discussion on the prime minister’s visit to Kashmir, it appears that India is demanding certain steps by Pakistan as a quid pro quo. Two conditionalities are: putting a stop to infiltration of militants across the Line of Control and the dismantling of the “terrorist infrastructure.”
These are by no means new, and one is left with the impression that Mr Vajpayee has made a gesture of friendliness but tied it to conditions that it expects to be meet. The LoC lies in a mountainous terrain and it is always possible for small groups to cross it if they are determined to do so. India has over 500,000 regular troops as well as a large border security force to deal with that problem.
After India’s rejection of the idea of joint patrolling, Pakistan has repeatedly suggested an increase in the strength of the UN observers of the United Nations Military Observers’ Group for India and Pakistan (UNMOGIP), deployed along the LoC. India has rejected this proposal too since it does not even allow the UN observers to operate on its side since 1972 on the technical ground that this is no longer the cease-fire line demarcated in 1949.
Unless India shows greater flexibility or Pakistan can give assurances that are acceptable to New Delhi, it is clear that the US might be called upon to play the role of a facilitator to get a dialogue going. Mr Armitage will be starting his visit to the region with a trip to Kabul, where the situation remains unstable. The agenda of his talks, when he comes to Pakistan, will possibly cover Islamabad’s relations with both Afghanistan and India.
The US has a greater stake in reducing tensions between Pakistan and India, as was made plain by Secretary of State Colin Powell. Soon after the launching of the war on Iraq, he had announced his intention of visiting South Asia where tensions had again been rising to a dangerous point. The repeated Indian threats of pre-emption reflected the view apparently held by India that Pakistan was vulnerable both politically and economically and therefore could be pressured and put on the defensive on the question of “cross-border terrorism.” New Delhi has followed the internal divisions in Pakistan between the military and the political forces that want to curtail the role of the men in uniform in the running of the government.
The US regards President Musharraf as its reliable partner and has reservations about the increase in the political influence and role of the religious parties, which have reacted strongly to the US intervention, first in Afghanistan and then in Iraq. The religious parties agitated strongly against the US invasion of Iraq, and organized “million man” marches in major cities, which the government could not oppose. The hard-liners in Washington would like to use Indian pressure on Pakistan to keep the military-dominated government in line. the propaganda that has continued about Pakistan’s alleged supply of nuclear technology to North Korea makes it necessary for Islamabad to keep its nuclear assets under effective command and control.
Mr Armitage has performed well as a trouble-shooter in relation to the Indo-Pakistan military standoff, even though analysts think that India’s coercive diplomacy since December 2001 has been sustained by Washington’s tacit approval. He comes after the Saddam regime has been eliminated in Iraq, and Washington is considering follow-up moves. Mr Armitage will deal with two nuclear rivals, whose friendship is considered important by Washington and whose mutual hostility is fraught with enormous danger.
The next few days will be important in establishing whether the possibilities of Indo-Pakistan rapprochement will follow the dynamics of the Agra process. India’s conditionalities that relate to terrorism and therefore resonate well in Washington, require Pakistan to start treating the Kashmiri struggle as terrorism, which is what India wants. The US also has not declared Pakistan a terrorist state, because of its principled political support to the indigenous Kashmiri freedom struggle. Mr Vajpayee’s announcement in Srinagar had also shown readiness to interact with the Kashmiri groups struggling for their right of self-determination.
If the two South Asian neighbours do not break new ground, Washington may have to resume the role the sole superpower has played in facilitating a dialogue and preventing Indo-Pakistan tensions from getting heated up again. One cannot, however, pin high hopes on the long-term efficacy of the US role, since Washington is unlikely to favour a solution that disturbs the status quo.


The burden of old age
By Zubeida Mustafa
HOW many birthdays should one have celebrated to be called old? In other words, at what age does one qualify to be a ‘senior citizen’? Or rephrased in very mundane terms the question would be, when does one become a pensioner? Of course, many would give cliched answers such as the one in self-help books, if you are young at heart you never grow old. There are others who comfort themselves by saying that the body might age but the mind doesn’t: it improves with age and experience!
Be that as it may, sociologists, economists, administrators and demographers have to come to grips with the facts of life: ageing is one of them. They have to be more precise in determining the role of the biological age of people in policymaking. In days gone by, this was a very personal matter. If a person reached a ripe old age and had to be cared for or provided for, it was the family that took it upon itself to attend to his needs. That is why children — rather sons — were regarded as old-age insurance. They took care of their parents in their twilight years.
The only factor which figured in public life — government planning and the personnel (now they call it human resource) policies of private sector organizations — was the age of retirement. At one time it was 55 in Pakistan. Then it was moved up to 58 and now it is 60 — but 65 for judges. The retirement age is conventionally linked to life expectancy and it is therefore higher in many countries of the West where better health, sanitation and environmental conditions ensure that people live longer and healthier lives on an average.
The industrialized western societies have been addressing the problems of ageing for several decades now. But here, with our traditions of filial duty, we have tended to be dismissive about the problems faced by the senior citizens, because it was believed that our ‘superior’ family values would give protection to the elderly. The institution of the family served as the social security net in times of hardship whether it was old age, ill health or unemployment. This worked very well for several generations. But the time has come for us to worry about the impact of old age on society because the family structure as we have known it for centuries is fast disintegrating.
The first important factor that has altered the situation is the changing demographic profile of the country. True, children under the age of 14 still constitute the largest segment (42 per cent) of Pakistan’s population. But the country’s family welfare programme, improved health conditions and growing urbanization have, on the one hand, decreased the size of the families and thus reduced the ratio of young children in the population, and have led to longevity and the break-up of the extended family, on the other. Today, over five per cent of the population of Pakistan is above the age of 60; this is expected to rise to 12 per cent in the next ten years.
There are several issues which must be addressed in formulating a policy for the senior citizens. The major ones relate to social attitudes, the health delivery system and economic policy which entail providing them care, attending to their health needs and facilitating economic self-reliance. These are essential if the elderly must live with dignity and esteem.
Although it is generally not admitted but even the social dimension of caring for the ageing has emerged as quite a key challenge in our society and this can be expected to grow. With the shrinking size of the families — as parents opt for fewer children — and their changing pattern caused by urbanization and other socio-economic factors, it is no longer possible for the elderly to be absorbed in an extended family where there were many young people around to take care of the older relatives.
The presence of family members in the house also provided the elderly some company and eased their agony of loneliness. Besides, with more and more women taking up employment outside the home, older people are left alone in the house to fend for themselves. There is also the migration factor. With so many young men and women having set out in quest of greener pastures abroad, the empty nest syndrome has become a common feature of life in Pakistan.
It speaks of our inability to see beyond our nose, that the health care of the elderly has not received the attention in public health planning in Pakistan that it deserves. That the country’s health delivery system is most inadequate is widely known. If it has failed to make provision for age-related health problems, it is not surprising. We do not even have the branch of medicine called geriatrics: students in medical colleges are not taught this subject and probably many of them have not heard of it.
It took Pakistan several years to understand the significance of paediatrics which has now established itself in medical education and practice. There are yet no specialists in geriatrics around, although it is widely recognized that ageing brings diseases and disorders of a specific nature which call for specialized care.
Closely linked to these problems is the economic one. In spite of being essentially family-centred, Pakistani society — and more particularly its state apparatus — has been quite negligent about providing for the economic well-being and independence of its elderly people who can no longer earn their living. They may have reached the age of superannuation and even though physically and mentally fit find themselves out of job. Others may not be physically fit to work.
Only the civil services and some private sector organizations have a pension scheme in place for their retired personnel. It is a different matter, however, that the scales of payments are so low in most cases that the pension hardly enough for subsistence.
Many pensioners seek to supplement their incomes by saving up in better times for the proverbial rainy day by investing in saving schemes set up by the government. But in their infinite wisdom, the policymakers have lowered the rates of return on the saving schemes over the years to facilitate the flow of capital into the banking system and to decrease government indebtedness.
Whether this has actually happened, bankers alone can tell. But the progressive reduction in the rates of return has had crippling effect on the pensioners, widows and other indigent groups who are among the major subscribers to the various saving schemes. One pensioner pointed out that the monthly income from the national saving schemes has fallen from Rs 1,350 to Rs 826 on an investment of Rs 100,000.
Although Pakistan has failed to take account of the ageing of the population and plan accordingly, this phenomenon has far-reaching implications for the national economy. Apart from the Employees’ Old Age Benefit Institution set up in the seventies — which conceptually was sound but negated its merits by fixing measly monthly payments — there is no other pension scheme that has been instituted in the private sector. Hence anyone who saves in his youth has limited choices for investment for the future.
As these issues are coming to the fore, there have been ad hoc attempts at addressing some of them. The Senior Citizens Association which has been functioning for several years has now been joined by another NGO, the Geriatrics Care Foundation, in this mission. The government has also set up a committee to look into the matter — probably on the urging of the United Nations. But so far these initiatives have acted more as advocacy groups as they have striven to raise public consciousness about ageing and its problems.

