| April 30, 2003 | Wednesday | Safar 27, 1424 |
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What Saarc must do
Midnight knock
IN ITS report “Pakistan Economic Update, July 2002-March 2003”, the Asian Development Bank has projected an optimistic outlook for Pakistan’s economy in the medium term. The estimated growth rate of over 4.5 per cent for 2002-03 is certainly a significant improvement on the 3.6 per cent of GDP growth achieved in 2001-02 and more so on the 2.5 per cent recorded in the previous year. An all-round improvement in almost all the major sectors of the economy — agriculture, industry, exports, and imports — and a significant increase in investment, savings and foreign capital inflows have contributed to the acceleration in the overall growth rate during the current year. The ADB report attributes this improvement — in the face of several external shocks during fiscal 2002 that had rocked the world in the wake of 9/11 (2001), tensions on the border with India, continuing drought, slow growth in the world economy and the recent global upheavals caused by the Iraq war — to the sustained stability of macroeconomic indicators, improvement in the external account and the government’s firmness in maintaining the momentum of the on-going economic reforms.
According to the report, both demand and supply factors are expected to speed up domestic economic activity. Increased availability of water should boost agriculture and hydropower generation. The textile industry is also better placed for increased production after heavy investment in the past two years. Demand factors include larger remittances which are expected to reach 3.5 billion dollars during the current year and the consequent increase in construction activity, as well as aggressive marketing of consumer credit by financial institutions. Increased domestic activity, particularly higher growth in manufacturing, together with a reduction in import tariffs and a strong local currency, is likely to ensure growth in imports. The FDI is expected to pick up significantly provided the domestic political situation becomes stable, and there is no recurrence of tensions on the border. The outstanding external debt stock is expected to be maintained at about 32 billion dollars over the medium term, with further improvement in the debt-profile, as expensive, short-term debt is replaced by long-term concessional borrowings. As a result, external debt servicing would fall to some 20 per cent of foreign exchange earnings by 2004.
There are, however, two discouraging notes in this otherwise highly encouraging outlook. The first is the projected increase in the overall rate of unemployment to more than nine per cent from around eight per cent in 2000. The second relates to the rate of inflation which is likely to rise to five per cent in 2004. In case these projections come true, it is more than likely that more people would fall below the poverty line by the time the current three-year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility(PRGF) programme of the IMF amounting to over a billion dollars comes to an end in 2004. Of course, there is hardly anything one can do to keep the rate of inflation from galloping at a time when economic activity is gaining momentum.
But on the unemployment front the government could do a lot more to save the poorer sections from absolute destitution without upsetting its reform agenda. In fact, if it takes in hand a good number of employment generating physical and social infrastructure projects, it will not only expand the absorption capacity of the economy but in a way also speed up the reform process. Meanwhile, it could also make plans to distribute the resultant hardships of the reforms equitably across various sections of the population. As of now the rigours of reforms have mainly been borne by the poorer sections.
MALDIVES’ decision to convene an emergency meeting of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation is a timely move in view of the threat posed by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) virus affecting neighbouring South East Asia. The representatives of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan and the Maldives are gathering at Male today to discuss a common strategy to stop the spread of SARS in South Asia, as the virus has already been reported in India. That this meeting is taking place in spite of the existing levels of political tension between India and Pakistan, is reassuring. It also points to the fact that Saarc, true to its charter, can play its role as an effective instrument for collective and coordinated action in dealing with problems common to all or most member countries without being hamstrung by tensions or misunderstandings affecting relations between some members.
The occurrence of the SARS virus in many South-East Asian countries and its possible spread to South Asia call for immediate collective preventive measures and the need to remain in a state of readiness to respond to any emergency that might develop over the coming weeks. South Asia is a poor region with limited resources and health facilities, requiring the member countries to adopt a collective stance vis-a-vis the preventive aspect of the looming danger. It is necessary, for instance, to adopt a common policy on travel to and from the SARS-affected countries, and on how best to contain the virus now that three SARS cases have been reported from India. One hopes that today’s meeting in Male will go into all aspects of the spreading scourge which can only be prevented, and not cured since no cure has so far been found, nor prevented through immunization for which no vaccine exists either. The best hope for keeping the deadly virus out lies in adequate and effective surveillance, precautions and quarantine arrangements at each point of entry, especially at transit and terminal points for international flights bringing passengers from SARS-affected countries. This is where Saarc can play an effective prescriber’s and coordinator’s role.
THE manner in which the widow of a journalist was arrested at her Karachi home in the early hours of the morning is extremely shocking. Shamim Alim, the widow of late Dawn staffer Alimuddin Pathan, was taken into custody at 2.35 on the night between Sunday and Monday. Led by an army major, about a dozen personnel of the National Accountability Bureau raided her house and arrested the lady on the basis of a warrant signed by NAB chief Lt.-Gen. Muneer Hafiz. However, despite inquiries from newsmen, NAB authorities did not say what specific charges there were against Shamim. But even if there were, was it necessary to effect the arrest at midnight?
This is not the first time that innocent citizens and suspects are arrested in a manner that harasses their families and tends to defame them. Here, NAB was dealing with a case which was not even criminal in nature but concerned a property in litigation. The case will ultimately be decided by a court, but the point to emphasize is the high-handedness which characterizes the enforcement of the rules of arrest and detention by our law enforcement agencies. It is not the first time that our lawmen have raided a house at dead of night for carrying out an arrest. In many cases, the victims are later acquitted by courts, but they and their families are made to suffer the trauma and humiliation of midnight raids. It is time the superior judiciary acted to discourage this blatant misuse of law that betrays the enforcers’ fascist psyche. A warrant of arrest does not empower the so-called lawmen to violate the spirit of the law in executing it.