‘Dancing in the minefields’
By Afrasiab Khattak
SOME people in the ruling establishment of the country and others among mediamen and political observers seem to be startled by Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s demand for arresting some of the Taliban commanders who, according to Afghan leaders, are fighting an undeclared war against Afghanistan.
But is it really such a “bombshell”? Was it not expected in view of the growing tension on the borders between the two countries as a consequence of the activities of the extremist elements in the area?
For keen political observers it is hardly surprising. In fact the special envoy of the US government for this region, Zalmay Khalilzad, reportedly raised this question with Pakistani authorities a week earlier. However, what is astonishing is the response of the government of Pakistan. The Foreign Office spokesman categorically denied the presence of Taliban initiating commando activities or their alleged activities on Pakistani soil. Quite contrary to this, General Musharraf, in his press briefing on Thursday, conceded the need for apprehending “foreign extremists” who might be using Pakistani soil to promote their “own agendas”.
The intensive coverage of events in Iraq over the last few months was too overwhelming for the armed clashes on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border to get media attention. While the international media was totally focused on the unfolding conflict in the Middle East, the Urdu media in Pakistan did report news about the growing Taliban attacks on the border as part of a “new round of jihad” in Afghanistan. This impression was reinforced by a new generation of ‘jihadi’ pamphlets appearing in Peshawar and Quetta.
People in Pakistan were made to believe that the Pukhtun population in eastern and southern Afghanistan was up in arms against the new government in Kabul. So much so that the attack on border town of Spin Boldak near Chaman in Balochistan made the headlines in a number of Urdu language papers with little realization of the fact that such an attack, like attacks on Khost and Gardez in Paktia, could take place only from within Pakistan. The war communiques of Taliban spokespersons make regular appearance in the Pakistan press. It is pretty clear that these statements emanate from within Pakistan as Taliban commanders cannot afford to make use of satellite phones from Afghanistan, which involves the grave risk of being detected by US forces. That is not all. Some of the Taliban leaders gave interviews to journalists inside Pakistan laying out their future plans. In the meanwhile, the Foreign Office spokesman in Islamabad never tires of making pious noises about his ministry’s deep desire for Pakistan-Afghanistan friendship.
Be that as it may, the substantial question that remains to be answered is what has changed in Pakistan’s Afghan policy in the aftermath of Sept 11. It is true that the then Taliban regime along with its Arab overlords was ditched after a phone call from Washington. But the Pakistani godfathers of the Taliban make a distinction between the government of Taliban and their movement. They strongly believe that this movement cannot decline and it is destined to not only re-emerge but has the potential of dominating the whole region. The hawks in the security establishment of the country see a military dimension to this extremist doctrine. For them it comes very handy to “secure” the country’s western borders.
This is an explosive combination, but strong enough to hijack Pakistan’s Afghan policy for the last so many years.
In spite of the monumental changes in the international and regional political situation and the total collapse of the GHQ’s disastrous Afghan policy, there seems no critical evaluation to this day, at least not to the public’s knowledge. The foolish quest for achieving “strategic depth” in Afghanistan has yet to be formally criticized and rejected by the quarters concerned. How can the government of Gen Pervez Musharraf formulate a new policy without having a critical analysis of the old one? But the most important problem would be the capability of the Musharraf government to implement a new Afghan policy even if it musters enough political will to formulate one. This is said because the Foreign Office remains as clueless about an Afghan policy as before.
The elements manipulating state institutions and resources to enforce a subjective and extremist policy had demonstrated complete defiance of the civilian government of Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif. If the experience of the last three years is anything to go by, Gen Musharraf has not done much better. For example, just after taking power in October 1999, he tried to persuade the Taliban leadership to change their policy on Osama bin Laden and some other issues. He invited the late Mulla Rabbani, Mulla Omar’s number two, to create a “moderate lobby” among the Taliban. After Rabbani’s visit, Gen Musharraf publicly expressed his desire to visit Kabul to take the process ahead. But this could not materialize, as the Taliban leadership did not get a wink from the relevant quarters in Pakistan.
Another factor that further complicates the situation is the Taliban’s relationship with Pakistani militant groups. Gen Musharraf’s government in the past went in for arresting Arab militants alleged to be Al Qaeda operatives, but it has stayed away from local militancy. Rounding up of Taliban commandos would require a political will strong enough to confront internal militants in case the latter oppose a crackdown on Taliban activists.
Gen Musharraf’s dilemma intensifies with every new day. He cannot indefinitely sail in two boats. He, along with his fellow generals, has to make some tough choices. Pakistan simply cannot afford to live with an image of a militancy-exporting factory in the present international situation. On the eastern borders, the Indian government is conditioning its dialogue offer with stopping what they call cross-border terrorism. On the western border, Afghanistan has a list of people who are fighting in Afghanistan and are based in Pakistan.
Nobody in the world will buy the denials by our foreign ministry. Guerrilla warfare cannot be sustained without a supply line and a sanctuary. These facts are too obvious to be denied. It is high time we worked out the contours of a new foreign policy after public debate if we are to avoid an impending catastrophe.

