March 25, 2003	Tuesday	Muharram 21, 1424

SINGAPORE: Dislike of Saddam Hussein, fear of terror attacks and authoritarian governments are factors curbing Asia’s Muslim peoples from large protests against war in Iraq, but a long conflict and civilian deaths could change that.

A few thousand demonstrators have been taking to the streets in Indonesia, some 10,000 marched in Dhaka and about 60,000 gathered on Sunday in Lahore — all small-scale by Asian standards.

“At this stage, the Muslim world is waiting to see how the war develops,” said Amin Saikal, professor of Middle East and Central Asia politics at the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Australian National University in Canberra.

“Once images of war come through, particularly civilian casualties and more bombardment, we could expect a degree of galvanization in support for the Iraqi people — but not for Saddam Hussein,” he said.

“Saddam Hussein is a secularist leader and he does not command Muslim support, but the deaths of Iraqi people will evoke a sense of grief among Muslims,” he said.

That grief could still spur protests on a larger scale than those seen so far in Indonesia, the world’s most populous Muslim nation, or among the people of Pakistan.

One foreign security expert said the biggest concern in Indonesia — underscored by weekend warnings from several Western countries — was of terror attacks by more radical groups such as Jemaah Islamiah, which wants a pan-Asian Islamic state.

“It’s the terrorist threat that has always been the major risk here,” said the Jakarta-based expert.

However, last October’s bomb attack on the Indonesian island of Bali that killed 202 people has had an impact on support for radicals, analysts say.

“There’s a weakening of the most hardline groups who would otherwise be much more vocal than they are,” said Sidney Jones of the International Crisis Group in Jakarta.

FEAR OF AUTHORITY: In addition, with the war already under way, many Indonesians now feel street protests could achieve little. Before the war, one moderate Muslim organization held an anti-war prayer rally that attracted 800,000 people.

And Indonesia’s security forces have made clear they would take stern action if things got out of hand.

“One has to remember that most regimes in Muslim countries, and I’m not just talking about Indonesia and Malaysia, are semi-authoritarian,” said Saikal, adding that many Arab governments had either sided with the United States or kept silent.

Thus many would-be protesters are being kept from venting their opinions by fear of police action after open threats of the use of force to quell unrest.

In Malaysia, the government and the conservative religious opposition issued condemnations on the day the attack began, but also called on people to keep cool heads and not identify ordinary Americans and businesses with the Bush administration.

“It is not part the political culture in Malaysia to actually go out and shout and protest, but believe me there is anger there. It’s really there,” said Vincent Lim, an analyst at the Institute of Strategic and International Studies.

The United States is both the biggest single customer for Malaysian exports and its biggest investor, while tourism is a major industry in Malaysia.

BEWARE RADICALIZATION, HIGH TOLL: A rapid rise in the death toll among Iraqi civilians could turn the tide even in the face of authoritarian governments.

“If war gets even uglier than it is already, then some of the reticence and restraint could change significantly,” said Jones.

Perhaps the most dangerous consequence could be the radicalization of the mainly moderate Muslim populations of Asia.

“One thing that is gradually happening in Indonesia and other parts of Asia is that the forces of moderate Islamists who form the bulk of intellectuals and the population are becoming more radicalized, and more resentful of the US,” said Saikal.

“This represents a very dangerous situation,” he said. “If the moderates are radicalized, they are very difficult to deradicalize.”

In Indonesia, where many protests are “rent-a-crowd”, political parties were keeping an eye on elections next year and the funds they would need at that time.

“Although numbers were expected to be bigger it’s still early days and there is potential for those to increase if you get a lot of negative imagery out of Iraq,” said the security analyst.

“But at the same time there was never the view that protests would get to a scale that they would represent a direct threat to civil order here and, by extension, Westerners,” he said.

The police themselves face a dilemma if they resort to force.

“If the military or police use force to quell demonstrations, they risk being labelled as un-Islamic or as supporters of the war in Iraq,” said a report on Malaysian and Indonesian reaction by security think-tank Stratfor.

“And thus risk laying the foundation for even bigger demonstrations that could turn against the government.”—Reuters