March 20, 2003	Thursday	Muharram 16, 1424

TEHRAN: Before prison and torture, before life in exile, before surviving seven assassination attempts and the execution of dozens of his relatives, Ayatollah Muhammad Bakr al- Hakim wished only to become a Muslim theologian.

By the age of 25, al-Hakim had achieved his goal and was teaching Islamic law in Baghdad. The choice he made to become a Shia Muslim cleric — like his grandfather, father and older siblings — set him on a lifelong confrontation with the secular Iraqi regime and a life in which religion and politics were inextricably linked.

Today, al-Hakim, 63, is the most important Iraqi opposition political or religious figure, a man who will have a lot to say about the stability of Iraq if the United States forcibly removes Saddam Hussein from power. While Shias are the dominant group in Iraq, making up 60 per cent of the country’s population of 24 million, a minority from the Sunni branch of Islam has ruled the country since it gained independence from Britain in 1932. The Shias have been waiting seven decades for a chance to rule, and most of them look toward al-Hakim for leadership.

But the United States has a testy relationship with al-Hakim, suspicious of his ties to Iran, where he has lived in exile since 1980.

Al-Hakim controls a militia, called the Badr Brigade, that numbers about 10,000 fighters, many of them Iraqi army deserters who are trained and armed by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. The militia has been conducting a guerrilla war against the Iraqi regime for 20 years, to little effect. In 1991, al-Hakim’s fighters came pouring over the border from Iran into southern Iraq. But the United States did not back the Shia uprising that ensued, and the rebels were quickly crushed by Iraqi forces.

“If the Americans enter Iraq because they want to rescue our people from this evil regime, and then they leave matters to the Iraqi people themselves, then everyone will be pleased,” al- Hakim said in an interview at his Tehran office. “But if the Americans come in with the intention of controlling Iraq, its wealth and its resources, then they’re going to face strong opposition from all the Iraqi people.”

No matter what the Bush administration thinks of al-Hakim’s motivations, analysts say it has little choice but to deal with him. “He’s a Shia spiritual leader with a worldwide following. The US administration would ignore someone like him at its own peril.”

The United States is concerned that if al-Hakim and his supporters gain a share of power in a new Iraqi regime, they would try to impose an Iranian-style theocracy in Iraq and they would be beholden to Tehran. But al-Hakim and some analysts note that Iranian and Arab Shias each have a distinct sense of identity, and Iraqi Shias are not likely to allow excessive Iranian influence over any new government.

Al-Hakim has become more pragmatic in recent years, trying to distance himself from the Iranian regime and saying he no longer believes it would be viable to establish an Islamic state in Iraq, as his movement had long advocated. Instead, al-Hakim said he wants to see a “democratic, free Iraq that represents the interests of all its people.”‘—Dawn/The LAT-WP News Service (c) The Washington Post.