March 19, 2003	Wednesday	Muharram 15, 1424

ISTANBUL: Tensions have risen after Cyprus missed its big chance to join the European Union as a unified state.

The diplomatic failure in Cyprus will disrupt Turkey’s tortuous path to membership of the European Union and could even strain the recent rapprochement with Greece, analysts say.

Cyprus is divided between a Turkish north and Greek south. Failure at unification will mean that the Greek south will join the European Union next year as representing the whole island. Turkish Cypriots make about 18 per cent of the population.

Intense diplomatic efforts by UN (United Nations) Secretary- General Kofi Annan to unify the island ahead of the accession signature to the EU on April 16 failed to bring Greek and Turkish Cypriot leaders to agreement.

The Annan scheme provided for creation of a federal state, reducing Turkish controlled areas from 37 to 29 per cent, and the return of more than 10,000 Greek Cypriots to their homes in the north. Cyprus has been divided since 1974 when the Turkish military took the north following a Greek-inspired coup.

“We have reached the end of the road,” a dejected Annan declared. “I’m not sure another opportunity like this will present itself again any time soon.” But he says the plan is still on the table for an eventual settlement.

The laboriously crafted plan fell because the differences between Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos and Turkish leader Rauf Denktash went beyond fine tuning.

In an unusual move that would have taken the responsibility off the shoulders of both leaders, Annan proposed they put the plan to their people in separate referendums. Tassos agreed, even though his people are said to oppose the plan. Denktash refused, though tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots have held pro-EU demonstrations.

The Turkish government which had seemed to support a settlement finally backed Denktash, apparently after some prodding by the Turkish military and President Ahmet Necdet Sezer. The Turkish Cypriots in the north find themselves now in deepening isolation.

All this means also that Turkey is slipping further from its EU dream. “It is difficult to see how it would be possible to start accession negotiations under such circumstances,” says EU Enlargement Commissioner Guenther Verheugen. “After May 1, 2004, they (the Turks) would face a situation where Turkey does not recognize one of the EU member states (Cyprus).”

Spokesman for the European Commission Jean-Christopher Filori went a step further, saying that when Cyprus joins the European Union in May next year, Turkey would be “militarily occupying one of our member states.”

In the absence of a settlement by May next year, Turkey will need the consent of Greek-led Cyprus to begin accession talks. The Turkish application is due for review December 2004.

“So in the end the Greek Cypriots would simply veto European Union plans to start accession talks and that would be the end of our EU adventure,” says Ilnur Cevik, editor-in-chief of The Turkish Daily News. “Some may see this argument as too simplistic but it is not.”

British commentator Michael Stephen says the Cyprus impasse is a “pretext” by the European Union to keep Turkey out of the club because of its large population (almost 70 million) and the fact that it is 99 per cent Muslim.

Some hopes are still pinned on Recep Tayyip Erdogan who became Prime Minister last week after a by-election. He has often been critical of the presumed policy of Denktash that no solution is the solution. Erdogan could be more accommodating once he has had some time, and Iraq is out of the way.

Turkish analyst Sami Cohen says the impasse could mean “a great blow” to bilateral relations between Turkey and Greece. Until recent years, Turkish and Greek warplanes have engaged in dangerous skirmishes over the Aegean Sea. Greece claimed 12 miles of territorial waters in the mid-nineties, but took a step back when Turkey threatened war.

The two came close to war in 1996 over the ownership of a rocky islet. Confrontation was averted by last-minute US intervention.

Turkey and Greece have agreed to take their disagreements to the International Court of Justice in the Hague if they fail to find a solution by next year.—Dawn/InterPress News Service.