An amphibious landing on Iraq’s tiny Gulf coast is an option, followed by twin thrusts — towards Baghdad and the second city of Basra and Iraq’s southern oilfields. Fighter jets and helicopter gunships would clear the way ahead.

Special forces, as in the war that toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan, are almost certainly on the ground already, identifying targets, gathering intelligence and contacting opponents of Saddam. Their role once an invasion has begun may include neutralizing Iraqi mobile rocket launchers, targeting Saddam and his entourage and turning units of the Iraqi army.

With Turkey stopping short of offering the United States use of its territory to launch a war on Iraq, Washington is likely to abandon plans to open a “northern front”, but may keep communications open in case it needs Turkish help later. It may have a fall-back plan for securing Iraq’s northern oilfields.

IRAQ: Iraq’s strategy will be to spring battlefield surprises and inflict heavy hit-and-run casualties on invading forces in the hope that the flow of body bags will combine with anti-war protests at home to sap their collective will to fight.