March 18, 2003	Tuesday	Muharram 14, 1424

DUBAI, March 17: The United States, with its arsenal of smart bombs and missiles, is banking on the shock of a blitzkrieg to bring it early victory in an invasion of Iraq.

Saddam Hussein, heavily outgunned, is likely to opt for guerilla hit-and-run tactics and street fighting — with a possible last-stand in Baghdad or his home region of Tikrit.

Following is a snapshot, based on soundings from diplomats and military experts, of the likely tactics in the third Gulf war in little over two decades:

THE UNITED STATES: The United States is likely to use its formidable arsenal of Tomahawk cruise missiles, smart bombs, bunker busters and electronic jammers to simulate the psychological impact of a nuclear bomb and shock the Iraqi army into submission. The aim would be to break the army’s will to fight, cause units to surrender or defect and isolate Saddam and his entourage.

An amphibious landing on Iraq’s tiny Gulf coast is an option, followed by twin thrusts — towards Baghdad and the second city of Basra and Iraq’s southern oilfields. Fighter jets and helicopter gunships would clear the way ahead.

Special forces, as in the war that toppled the Taliban in Afghanistan, are almost certainly on the ground already, identifying targets, gathering intelligence and contacting opponents of Saddam. Their role once an invasion has begun may include neutralizing Iraqi mobile rocket launchers, targeting Saddam and his entourage and turning units of the Iraqi army.

With Turkey stopping short of offering the United States use of its territory to launch a war on Iraq, Washington is likely to abandon plans to open a “northern front”, but may keep communications open in case it needs Turkish help later. It may have a fall-back plan for securing Iraq’s northern oilfields.

IRAQ: Iraq’s strategy will be to spring battlefield surprises and inflict heavy hit-and-run casualties on invading forces in the hope that the flow of body bags will combine with anti-war protests at home to sap their collective will to fight.

Saddam has split Iraq into four military regions and entrusted his youngest son Qusay and three other loyal lieutenants with the defence of each. Qusay will lead the defence of Saddam’s power base in Baghdad and around Tikrit.

Saddam’s army numbers around 350,000 soldiers, but many of their tanks and other weapons are aging or obsolete. Its Republican Guard units, who are much better armed, include 15,000 special security forces who protect Saddam and the leadership, but he has fewer than 200 warplanes and they are likely to be no match for US and British planes.—Reuters