March 7, 2003	Friday	Muharram 3, 1424

BRUSSELS: Washington won’t be closing its army bases in Germany any time soon, but its estrangement with Berlin over Iraq has quickened debate over the wisdom of keeping thousands of troops and their families on Cold War frontiers.

General James Jones, commander of US forces in Europe, shone some light this week on embryonic plans for an overhaul of the American military structure on the continent, which could include rebasing behind the old Iron Curtain. But he denied they were in any way a punishment for Germany’s anti-war stance.

“This isn’t driven by politics,” said a NATO source. “It was being discussed before the Germans blotted their copybook.”

Indeed, strategic planners have long argued that the 110,000 service personnel now stationed in Europe at huge cost could be replaced by smaller units with troops on short rotation tours at stepping-stone bases stretching into eastern Europe.

Barry Posen at the Transatlantic Center in Europe agrees the history of Jones’s proposals is not recent, but believes “it may have legs” now because of the US rift with Germany.

At a House Armed Services Committee hearing last week, Congressmen were asked not to let “emotions associated with the present disagreement with France and Germany cause us to act precipitously with respect to basing decisions in Europe”.

But one committee member promptly railed against the “hypocrisy” of France and Germany, and another said that “if we’re not appreciated in Germany for the kind of neighbours we are, and have been, then maybe we have to move...”.

“Do you see a compelling interest,” Republican Congressman Duncan Hunter asked one of the witnesses at the hearing, “to maintain at a fairly high cost, some $7 billion a year, the American presence in Germany for diplomatic reasons, to make them like us and accept us and work with us?”.

E. EUROPEAN WELCOME: Eastern European states such as Bulgaria, Romania and Poland— now enjoying Washington’s favour at the expense of what US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld has branded “old Europe” — are delighted by the prospect of playing host to US troops.

Ex-communist eastern Europeans have offered staunch support to US President George W. Bush on Iraq, out of gratitude for US help in throwing off Soviet dominance in the 1980s and as payback for Washington’s support for their NATO membership bids.

Bulgarian Defence Minister Nikolai Svinarov told the state news agency BTA on his return from a trip to Washington last week that his country may provide four or five bases to the United States as it transfers troops out of Germany.

Such a move would bring considerable economic benefits to impoverished Balkan states like Bulgaria and Romania and it would bolster a sense of security in two countries which, although set to join NATO in 2004, remain wary of Moscow.

A beefed-up American military presence in these countries would also give the United States a foothold in the Balkans and strategic reach into Central Asia, the Caucasus and the Middle East to take on post-September 11 security threats.

US forces already conduct huge live-fire exercises in Poland, something they cannot do so easily around German bases.

“In Germany it’s a pain in the ass for the Americans,” said one military observer. “There are flying restrictions, there’s a limit on the areas they can use for exercises and they even have to take toilets with them in case they pollute the environment.”

Washington keeps two of its 10 army divisions in Europe. In Germany it has some 77,000 personnel — many with families — at bases which have become thriving townships in their own right.

It has sought to play down the media buzz over possible redeployment, stressing at the State Department this week that there are no formal proposals under discussion right now and any changes would be part of a long-term evaluation process.

A spokesman for the German defence ministry said this week it was “totally normal” for US forces to review worldwide deployment to cut costs. “It’s natural that bases in Germany are included in such a review,” the spokesman said.

A German analyst said the government was trying to play down the issue.

“LILYPAD” BASING: As a marine, General Jones — who double-hats as NATO’s top commander — sees the value of posting expeditionary forces at a string of “lilypad” bases scattered across the continent.

This chimes with NATO’s drive to transform itself from an alliance geared to fight Cold War land battles into a rapid-response force for threats from terrorism and the spread of weapons of mass destruction beyond Euro Atlantic borders.

The general’s view is not widely shared across the services.—Reuters