March 4, 2003	Tuesday	Zul Hijjah 30, 1423

KARACHI, March 3: The KSE-100 share index on Monday confidently breached through two successive barriers on heavy buying in the pivotals, heralding the return of a bull market after over a month’s persistent sell-off. It recovered 119.69 points or five per cent at 2,518.84, adding Rs25 billion to the market capitalization at Rs574 billion.

Buoyancy was more pronounced in the forward counter where some of the leading shares breached through circuit-breakers under the lead of PSO which recovered Rs13.60 at Rs195.40 on 4m shares.

A record fall in carryover transactions (badla rates) to 6.5 per cent and the scheduled board meeting of Hub-Power on March 5, and expectations of a good interim dividend seem to be chief motivating force behind the return of the prodigal sons but after causing massive erosions in the saving or the retailers.

In market parlance, investors generally return to the ready and forward counters after the badla rates fall below 10 per cent as the bait of higher capital gains in speculative run are more certain as compared to them.

The return of the bull market is well-reflected in steep rise of 120 points in the KSE 100-share index, which confidently breached through the barriers of 2,400 and 2,500 points and ended at the day’s peak level. Its meteoric rise shows that it is heading toward its pre-reaction level of 2,954 points on the strength of strong institutional buying and terribly low badla rates.

Analysts said massive idle money was floating here and there after the record decline in badla rates (carryover transactions) and indications are that it may plough back in shares generating a heat in the hereto sluggish market.

“Essentially, it appears to be the Hub-Power day as all roads led to it at the current lower levels,” analysts said, adding “after over a month of bear dominance investors welcomed the return of the bulls with a bang.”

But some leading brokers are unsure whether or not the run-up could be sustained in the backdrop of changing Iraq war scenario and its likely impact on the world bourses and the foreign trade.

Technically, the market is now in a highly oversold position, notably on the blue chip counters and could attract any amount of covering purchases but much will depend on the background both on the political and Iraq war fronts.

“No one will disagree with the fact that cash heavy financial institutions are inclined to keep the inter-market flow of money at a high pitch and the current price levels provide an attractive bait,” market sources said.

“The current buying euphoria will continue until the Hub-Power board tells its interim financial package to its investors on March 5,” they assure, and “after that is anybody’s guess.”

The market is rife with rumours that the interim dividend could range between 30 and 35 per cent, bused possibly on its half yearly earnings and its previous dividend records.

PSO followed it on strong institutional buying at the lower levels as the date of sell-off is drawing nearer. It has already received massive battering during the current sell-off and reach fairly lower levels for any future investment.

Top gainers were led by the energy sector, notably Pakistan Oilfields, PSO, Unilever Pakistan, Wyeth Pakistan and Shell Pakistan, up by Rs12.15l to Rs24.90. Other good gainers included Lakson Tobacco, National Refinery, Pakistan Refinery, Cherat Papers, Dawood Hercules, Fauji Fertiliser, Engro Chemical and many others, which posted gains ranging from Rs4.80 to Rs6.

Losers included most of the second liners, notably Noong Sugar, Din Textiles, EFU General Insurance, Tri-Pack Films and Arif Habib Securities, off Rs1.10 to Rs10.55.

Trading volume rose to 196m shares from the previous 96m shares as the advancing shares held a strong lead over the losing ones at 204 to 56, with 46 shares holding on to the last levels.

Hub-Power topped the list of actives, up Rs2.15 at Rs36.60 on 83m shares, PTCL, higher by Rs1.25 at Rs21.60 on 32m shares, PSO, up Rs13.55 at Rs194.35 on 11m shares, Sui Northern Gas, firm by 45 paisa at Rs22 on 10m shares and FFC-Jordan Fertiliser, up 85 paisa at Rs11.15 on 8m shares.

Other actives included Pak PTA, firm by 35 paisa on 7m shares, Pakistan Oilfields, higher by Rs12.15 on 7m shares, Engro Chemical, higher Rs5.80 on 6m shares, ICI Pakistan, up Rs2.40 on 4m shares and National Bank, higher Rs1.55 on 3m shares.

FORWARD COUNTER: Hub-Power led the list of actives, Rs2.15 at Rs36.70 on 15m shares, PTCL, higher Rs1.31 at Rs21.80 on 4m shares FFC-Jordan Fertiliser, up 90 paisa on 2m shares.

DEFAULTER COMPANIES: Suzuki Motorcycle came in for modest support and rose 85 paisa at Rs8.25 on 24,500 shares, Ghandhara Industries, easy 10 paisa at Rs3.50 on 10,000 shares and Crescent Board, up 40 paisa at Rs2.85 on 1,000 shares.

DIVIDEND: Bank Al-Habib bonus shares at the rate of 25 per cent for the last year ended Dec 31, 2002.