Business concerns about Iraq war: COMMENT

KARACHI, Feb 24: A growing concern today is how will a possible US-led war against Iraq impact on the national market.

Going by the consensus in the corporate world, a prolonged war will strengthen the global recession, from which there will be no escape for Pakistan.

Opinion is, however, divided on the consequences of a short war. Some believe it would help industrial economies come out of recession and provide improved access to foreign capital and markets for developing states.

However, others view the situation differently. They see the recession in industrial economies of being cyclic and prolonged in nature. The situation has been further aggravated by US protectionism in foreign trade and unilateralism in international politics, curbing free trade and globalization. In economic terms, for the United States, recession is a far grimmer reality than Saddam Hussain.

The slowdown in the US economy began in the second half of 2000, much before 9/11, that sparked increased government spending and turned a $165bn surplus budget into a $65 billion deficit in seven months, without any marked economic recovery. Neither did the US war against the Taliban bring any gains despite the oil potential in Central Asia.

Despite the threat of war, which should normally sap business confidence, Pakistan’s foreign trade and overseas investment is picking up and the economy is growing faster this fiscal.

Prime Minister’s Adviser on Finance Shaukat Aziz says a war in Iraq will have little impact. BOI chairman Waseem Haqqie believes that foreign investment may slow down. Businessmen are afraid that shipping companies may raise their freight by charging war premium. There may be short-term rapid rise in petroleum prices before an anticipated sharp fall after the war ends.

Some corporate executives see a bigger threat to Asia’s developed economies like South Korea and Japan if a war were to break out between North Korea and the United States. While Iraq is seen as no match against the American war machine, it would be a far more serious affair on the Korean peninsula.

To assess the impact of the Iraq war, it may be worthwhile to draw upon the experiences of 9/11 (a tactical attack on fortress America with strategic consequences) and the war in Afghanistan. Despite the initial setbacks, they have brought a windfall to local trade and economy.

There has been a turnaround in the external sector. Pakistan has experienced a reversal of capital flight (inflows) totalling almost two billion dollars between fiscal years 2001 and 2002. In seven months ending January 2003, Pakistan has attracted $600 foreign investment.

And despite the threat of war, the Kuwaitis and Saudis were in Islamabad on Feb 19 to discuss privatization of Pakistan State Oil whose bid for sale has been fixed for April 26. The threat of war has not deterred Arab investors, because of their strong presence in local financial and oil markets.

Pakistan is turning out to be a destination for Arab investors, as demonstrated by the recent acquisition of United Bank by a UAE group. The Arabs are withdrawing from the US and some of their money could definitely be invested in Muslim states.

In 2001-2002, Pakistan’s trade with the Middle East amounted to over $5.1bn, accounting for a quarter of the country’s total trade of $20 billion. Over $3.6 billion were spent on imports against exports amounting to $1.5 billion. In case of prolonged conflict that engulfs other neighbouring states like Kuwait and Turkey, Pakistan’s trade may be hurt. But remittances are likely to pick up if the environment in the Gulf is vitiated by war.

The slump in industrial economies has prompted Malaysia and Thailand to focus on creating more domestic demands and regional co-operation. With the major powers sharply divided on the Iraq issue, the emerging markets will get more breathing space to shape self-reliant economies. The summit of non-aligned states being held in Kuala Lumpur may provide further impetus to South-South co-operation and co-operation between emerging markets and major powers opposing war. Russia agreed to help expand the capacity of the Steel Mills during the visit of President Musharraf to Moscow. 9/11 has set a new direction to global capital flows.

A prolonged recession in American, European and Japanese economies threatens the global financial system that tends to concentrate capital in the world financial centres at the cost of the periphery. That is the key issue facing free trade and globalization. It is not Iraq.

In past two years, investors in the US lost $4 trillion on Wall Streets and are waiting for a turnaround. To quote US economists, Iraq is a minor consumer concern as compared to jobs, the housing and stocks. There is a limit to what an easy victory in Iraq can do.

Writing in Newsweek, Robert J. Samuelson says that “the US economy faces prolonged, slow growth or stagnation. We prefer temporary explanations to a grimmer reality.” He adds: “The great danger is that simultaneous economic weakness in Europe, Japan and the US feed each other, intensifying pessimism and creating a wave of financial crises.” And economic crises foster protectionism, tend to create trade wars and political splits. They put a brake on globalization.

The spirit of language movement missing in Bangladesh: DATELINE DHAKA

The 21st of February, the date which the people of Bangladesh have been observing since 1952 as Language Martyrs Day, appears to have lost its inherent political and cultural place in the life of the country’s ruling elite.

With the UN recognizing the event as International Mother Tongue Day, the spirit of the language movement is supposed to contribute to the safeguarding of some 6,000 languages from the threat of extinction across the world.

It had also another motivation — the establishment of a nation state based on a secular-democratic polity and egalitarian economic principles which would help empower all sections of the people in a uniform way. This was the spirit, carried through two decades since the beginning of the 1950s, that united a cross-section of the people to struggle for independence in 1971.

But at the moment, Bangladesh, especially its ruling elite, is very happy with the depiction of the country’s identity, and that too coined by the US establishment, as a “moderate Muslim country”. Politically, especially as regards the domestic power struggle, the two mainstream political camps, led respectively by the Awami League and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, are in an undeclared “civil war”.

There is hardly any consensus on any problem confronting the vast majority of the people. They have almost divided the nation into two dominating tribes, ”Bengalis” and “Bangladeshis”, the first led by the Awami League and the second by the BNP.

Their job is to react to each other’s stances on any issue ranging from the price of essential commodities to the problems of national minorities living in the Chittagong Hill Tracts.

There is a small section of the left in Bangladesh which is supposed to pursue an independent political line, according to their printed manifestos, aimed at replacing the ‘repressive military-bureaucratic state apparatus’ with a democratic one based on secular democratic politics.

For two decades, they have been trying to achieve the impossible — bring the two mainstream parties closer. They are still the only organised secular political groups, however insignificant in the present political context of Bangladesh, trying to keep alive the spirit of the Language Movement and the liberation war.

Meanwhile, the political, economic and cultural exploitation or the people continues. As regards cultural empowerment, the situation is worse. Bangladesh has been exposed to three distinct education systems, perpendicularly dividing the whole society into three sections, with three different, mostly opposed to each other, philosophies of life.

Children coming from a large section of the rural poor are having madressah education with an alarmingly backward curriculum. Then the children from the middle and lower-middle class in both rural and urban areas are exposed to what is called mainstream Bangla medium education with a curriculum lagging far behind world class.

The third section of children coming from the upper / middle class is privileged to receive private-sector English-medium education, which generally creates what is known in the subcontinent as Brown Sahibs. And yet, there is another section of the population that still cannot afford to send their children even to the state-run free primary schools. This situation, many believe, poses a further threat to the political unity of the people of Bangladesh.

The Bangladeshi ruling elite’s departure from a core component of the spirit of the 1952 Language Movement surfaced very visibly in Dhaka on February 20, only a day before the country was poised to observe the 51st Language Martyrs Day.

A group of boys and girls, members of the national minorities living in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, brought out a small procession in Dhaka city, demanding that their children be allowed to study in their own languages.

Ironically, the ruling class of Bangladesh has not yet recognised the right of the country’s national minorities to education in their own languages, although the Bengalis had fought for the same right more than five decades ago.

Relief package demanded: SINDHI PRESS DIGEST

KAWISH writes that the Sindh Assembly has unanimously declared Sindh a rain-hit province and the paper calls for a relief package. On Saturday last, the assembly session put aside its agenda to discuss a resolution, jointly moved by the treasury and opposition members, about the havoc wreaked by recent rains. This is second time that the treasury and opposition benches have jointly tabled a resolution, which is a good omen for the democratic process. However, it is yet to be seen whether the move leads to provision of relief to the rain-affected people.

The daily points out that the rains have had negative effects on urban as well rural Sindh. In Hyderabad and other cities and towns, civic amenities still remain affected while houses and crops have been damaged in the rural areas.

After the adoption of the resolution in the house, the Sindh government should have declared Sindh a calamity-hit area and launched a relief operation but it seems that it is not going to do so. This is despite the fact that the treasury members also participated in tabling the resolution in this regard. If the provincial government fails to respect the opinion of the MPAs, the impression will be that the assembly is not a decision and policy-making institution but merely a debating society, Kawish concludes.

Lamenting over the Karachi killings of Saturday, Ibrat says that the law and order situation in the province seems to be headed in an alarming direction. While the rural areas of Sindh have recently been gripped by a wave of lawlessness, its capital was calm. But the massacre outside an Imambargah suggests that the enemies of peace can strike whenever they want to.

Whenever an event like this happens, the government hints at the existence of different forces behind the incident. However, the administration lacks the ability to prevent repetition of bloodshed at and outside places of worship. Reacting to the recent carnage, Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali urged the authorities to ensure maintenance of law and order while Sindh Chief Minister Ali Mohammad Mahar termed the incident a conspiracy against the government. But, the daily believes, nothing will come out of the official statements and payment of compensation to heirs of the deceased. The killings seem to be a part of a looming conspiracy as they have happened just before the advent of Muharram. Therefore, according to Ibrat, the government should admit that it has failed to provide security of life to citizens, and it should evolve a strategy to prevent a replay of such events.

Commenting on the remarks by the prime minister that Sindh ministers should not do anything wrong at the insistence of the people, Tameer-i- Sindh writes that the people only ask ministers for water, power, roads and jobs etc. It is the friends and associates of ministers who demand contracts worth millions of rupees and other illegal favours. The people should not be blamed for the misdeeds of those who are close to wielders of power.

Sach writes that after killing a large number of innocent people in Afghanistan, the US is preparing to attack Iraq on the pretext of disarming it. And this is despite the fact that United Nations inspection teams have failed to detect weapons of mass destruction in the Middle Eastern country. This a very frightening situation for world peace. On the other hand, anti-war rallies are continuing in different parts the world. If the US and the UK continue to fail to pay heed to this voice of sanity, their hollow claim of being champions of democracy will be exposed again.

Still waiting for a landfill: DATELINE ISLAMABAD

DISPOSAL of solid waste on land is a major undertaking everywhere. In Islamabad, municipal refuse collected daily is dumped in a large open area towards the southwest, a little away from the city along the Kashmir highway. This refuse is occasionally burnt in the open air, bombarding surrounding settlements with an unbearably foul smell.

Needless to say, this method of waste disposal causes air and water pollution, with reports of increased incidence of diseases like asthma and other respiratory sicknesses, typhoid, cholera, hepatitis and other intestinal illnesses. Moreover, it is reported that only about 70 per cent of the total municipal waste is being collected by the Capital Development Authority (CDA) for dumping, the rest being left to rot.

Elsewhere in the world, modern sanitary landfill sites for disposing municipal wastes are usually chosen after careful consideration. Amongst the factors to consider are that the site must be within economic range of the source of the wastes, and it should not be an area subject to flooding or high ground water levels.

Since Islamabad was conceived and built as a model metropolis in urban planning and development over 40 years ago, it was expected that the capital authorities would have long decided on a suitable site for a landfill and adopted the latest waste disposal methods for the city. This has not happened.

Several attempts have been made since 1990 to kick start solid waste management projects with foreign funding in both Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Concept clearance for a Solid Waste Management and Environment Enhancement Project (SWEEP) in Rawalpindi city with proposed funding from UNDP and JICA (Japanese International Corporation Agency) was given as early as 1990.

However, it was not until 1996 that PC-1 of the project was submitted by the Rawalpindi Municipal Corporation. A further four years later in February 2000, it was reported that the corporation had acquired 1,000 kanals of land 16 kms from the city for the site. But the project never got off the ground.

The PC-1 was revised, and the termination date of the project was even extended several times by the UNDP. But apart from, perhaps, raising awareness among citizens to the environmental hazards of the existing methods of solid waste disposal, a modern facility in Rawalpindi was never developed as envisioned. In mid- 2001, UNDP finally communicated its decision to the government of Pakistan to terminate the project.

As for Islamabad itself, a similar waste management project by JICA and CDA started in 1996 when the PC-1 of the project was drawn up for approval. The project, like the one in Rawalpindi, has also failed to materialize so far. And this despite the fact that the then federal minister for environment, Omar Asghar Khan, had announced in August 2000 that solid waste management was being accorded priority under his ministry’s National Conservation Policy.

In July 2002, it was reported that a revised PC-1 of the Islamabad project, now estimated to cost Rs1.08 billion — up from the original Rs800 million — had been re-submitted by the CDA for approval. The Japanese government was expected to provide the major portion of the funding — Rs907.683 million — with CDA responsible for the remaining Rs99.683 million.

The project, it was reported, aimed to revolutionize the capital’s solid waste collection and disposal system, complete with a proper, modern and scientific sanitary landfill site for pollution-free disposal of solid waste. Whether this time, the PC-1 will be approved and transformed into actual reality is anybody’s guess.

Apart from UNDP and UNIDO, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank have proposed support for pollution control projects in Pakistan. Japan and the Netherlands have also been providing support in this direction through aid-tied-to-trade.

Norway is another country involved in pollution control projects in Pakistan and the US is also known to be keen to move into this area of cooperation with Pakistan.

An official report was compiled by US authorities in 1999 providing an assessment of the civic, industry and health sectors in Pakistan which require assistance and equipment in projects related to waste management and pollution control.

If finance is not the problem, is it then the lack of agreement or decision on the appropriate site for a landfill? The capital’s present solid waste dumping site in the west of the city is an area which, according to the master plan, the metropolis is projected to expand into.

On the other hand, the site that the CDA is considering to develop as the capital’s first proper landfill — located in Zone IV in the eastern park area of Islamabad along Park Road — is a controversial one.

The area is near the Rawal Lake and a natural watercourse and thus it is a site where the ground water level is known to be high, a condition not favourable for the location of any sanitary landfill since it will enhance water pollution.

Or is the delay in executing the capital’s waste management project just a reflection of plain apathy and lack of will on the part of the bureaucracy to see the project through? After all, it is not uncommon for the bureaucracy to fail to utilize funds that have been allotted for particular projects. Or is the capital city’s right to this important municipal service being compromised by politics and vested interests?

Whatever the reason, it is not only preventing Islamabad from having its very first modern sanitary landfill but also hampering the development of an overall improved solid waste disposal system for the metropolis.

America’s ‘absolutist’ unilateralism: COMMENT

AT THE crucial UN Security Council session (Feb 14) to hear the reports of weapons inspectors Hans Blix and Mohammad Elbaradei on Iraq’s much-publicized WMDs, a visibly tense Colin Powell grimly reiterated his country’s case for the use of force against Iraq in view of its “continued non-compliance and failure to cooperate”. He went on to interpret Resolution 1441 as a mandate for prompt action (war) rather than as a temporizing ploy to give more time to the inspectors for continuing their quest for Saddam’s hidden WMDs.

Powell’s statement reflects no significant departure from what Chris Patten has called America’s “absolutist” unilateralism in its approach to the rest of the world. Patten, the last and longest-serving (1992-1997) British governor of Hong Kong, now the European Union commissioner for external affairs, has been bitterly critical of America’s unilateralist, militarist approach towards Iraq. Contrary to his grain as a dyed-in-wool imperialist, Patten, in one of his rare moments of truth, damned the emerging US reliance on its fantastic military superiority over all other nations “to pursue what it wants, as it wants as an absolutist and simplistic approach to the rest of the world”.

He urged Britain to stop being “US conservatism’s lapdog”. Of Tony Blair’s reported statement that “if we can get rid of Baghdad, we should”, Patten said that it was a “devastatingly naive remark which stands (as yet) uncorrected”.

The heads of state of two of Europe’s largest economies, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder of Germany and Jacques Chirac of France, stand firmly behind their principled stand against war on Iraq without conclusive and concrete proof. They insist, and rightly so, on more time — may be some more months, even a year — to be given to the UN inspectors to complete their job to their complete satisfaction. Both enjoy the support of Russia and China.

At a summit-level joint press conference with Tony Blair, President Chirac plainly stated that “war is always the worst of solutions. We think that there is a lot to be done on the issue of disarmament through peaceful means.”

Chancellor Schroeder and Russian President Vladimir Putin declared at a joint press conference in Berlin: “We are convinced that a one-sided use of force would lead to great suffering for the population (of Iraq) and increased tension in the whole region.” On TV screens, the German chancellor was fury itself in his body language and speech. President Putin lent his host his full support with a spontaneous affirmative thrown in at the end of each pause in Schroeder’s statement.

The Franco-German concerted ‘no’ to US war plans against Iraq came despite Colin Powell’s painstaking but largely unconvincing presentation at the UN, accusing Iraq of “failing to disarm”.

Germany and France, now joined by Belgium, also opposed Nato having anything to do with the defence of the territorial integrity of Turkey as part of the collective security of member states in the event of war against Iraq. Turkey had invoked Article IV of the alliance which relates to a war or a threat of war against one being considered as a threat against all.

Turkey’s demand, as part of the US-clobbered ‘coalition’ against Iraq, was as logical as the three member states’ stand that any such assistance extended would automatically make the alliance part of the US war. But Powell ‘rebuked’ the three Nato dissidents for ‘blocking’ action within Nato to defend Turkey as an alliance member. He called their stand ‘inexcusable’.

That particular rift has since been papered over, but this was the first time ever in Nato’s history (established in 1948) that the alliance was faced with a material split. US ambassador to Nato Nicholas Burns plainly admitted that “because of this action, Nato is now facing a crisis of credibility”. The so- called ‘silence procedure’ under which any dissenting member (members) would observe the golden rule of discreet silence out of respect for a collective agreement was for once breached.

What America stands to gain from a war even at such cost to transatlantic unity is hard to understand. This is not to speak of the billions of dollars involved in amassing tens of thousands troops and whole armadas against a single individual named Saddam Hussein. Should Saddam Hussein either die or go into exile or get killed or toppled in a coup, what then would be the rationale for the mighty military effort launched with such imperialistic flourish? It would certainly be no easy task for President Bush and his team to explain their actions.

Why should America be so uncompromisingly opposed to giving a diplomatic solution a fair chance? Quite a puzzle especially in view of North Korea’s ‘No’ to repeated American overtures for a diplomatic resolution of the threat posed by Pyongyang’s renewed nuclear programme. What’s the compulsion behind the efforts for a peaceful resolution of the crisis with one and certain war against the other — both integral to Bush’s triangular ‘axis of evil’?

Whether America will indeed commit the terminal folly of waging a war against Saddam Hussein or settle for an option that rules out a military offensive will be unsafe to predict. What can be safely predicted, however, is that the post-Iraq war world would not be the same much in the same way as the post 9/11 world is not the same.

—The writer is a retired brigadier of the Pakistan Army.

Seraiki centre creeping along: DATELINE MULTAN

The Bahauddin Zakariya University’s Seraiki research centre is marching forward at a snail’s pace, according to critics.

Established in July 2001, the research centre has recently sketched the syllabus of Seraiki as elective (200 marks) and optional (100 marks) subjects at BA level. It has also printed a booklet Mutalaya-i-Farid Ka Eik Naya Rukh.

Translated into Urdu from Gurmukhi by Haneef Chaudhry, the booklet contains five articles by Dr Kala Singh Bedi and one by Dr Galwant Singh. (Both the writers belong to the Indian Punjab and their work on Khwaja Ghulam Farid is part of their research on Punjabi language and literature as is mentioned in the booklet’s preface written by Dr Anwaar Ahmad, Khurram Qadir and Muhammad Ajmal Mehr).

The sitting vice-chancellor of the university, Dr Ghulam Mustafa Chaudhry, took an initiative and set up the centre soon after assuming charge. He appointed Islamic Studies and Language Dean Dr Anwaar Ahmad director of the centre.

A building, which was originally constructed for a health club, was handed over to the centre.

In 1989, Punjab Governor Gen Tikka Khan (retired) directed the Islamia University Bahawalpur and Multan’s BZU to establish Seraiki departments. The Islamia University set up the department the same year and introduced classes for masters in Seraiki language and literature.

But the BZU put the matter in cold storage by demanding additional funds from the provincial finance department and the University Grants Commission.

Seraiki daily Jhok’s Editor Zahoor Ahmad Dhareja filed an application with the provincial ombudsman in 2000 against what he called delaying tactics by the BZU authorities in setting up the department. After a number of hearings, the ombudsman ordered the university on December 30, 2000 to establish the department.

The BZU representative reportedly assured the ombudsman that the university would set up a Seraiki centre on the lines of the Institute of Sindhiology (Sindh University, Jamshoro).

When contacted, the newspaper editor said the university took several months to formally announce the centre and that, too, without putting down its objectives despite the ombudsman’s orders.

Criticizing the university’s ‘half-hearted’ efforts for the Seraiki centre, Mr Dhareja pointed out that there were not only several linguistic errors in the syllabus for BA, but some of the unpublished books had also been included in the course. A novel, Bairre Wich Daraya (river in the boat), by Aslam Ansari had been included in the course, which the editor claimed was non-existent.

However, Dr Anwaar Ahmad said the university while finalizing the course outline consulted the novelist, Aslam Ansari, who assured the university that his work would soon be published. The novel was unfortunately yet to be published, he added.

As far as the MA Seraiki classes were concerned, he said, although the syllabus for was being prepared, the university had no immediate plan to launch classes because it had learnt a lesson from the ‘failure’ of the Islamia University’s Seraiki department. He added the introduction of MA classes at the university would be of no use without a feeding institute.

“Keeping in mind the Islamia University’s experience, we have adopted a cautious route for the Seraiki cause,” he said.

Dr Anwaar said a publication cell would soon be set up at the Seraiki centre while a library, having audio-visual aides, and a museum of Seraiki belt’s archaeological sites were also on the university’s list. The centre was also thinking to organize training workshops to conserve the local traditional art forms, he added.

But he minced no words in saying that rapid growth with meagre annual budget of Rs0.5 million was next to impossible. A sum of Rs0.2 million for contractual posts for the centre has also to be paid through the annual allocation.

Islamia University Seraiki department’s head Prof Javed Chandio, however, refused to call his department a failure. Since its inception in 1997, there had been at least 20 students in each class of the Seraiki department, he said, adding the number of students sometimes swelled to 50.

Prof Chandio, who is also BZU board of studies member, claimed the problem started when the university closed down the department in 1998 on the ground that terrorists had started getting admissions to the centre. Inviting protests by the Seraiki speaking, the university had to reopen the department within eight days, but the controversies remained there, he said.

Thereafter, the authorities revised the admission schedule for the Islamia University, depriving the graduates of other universities, including the BZU, of the MA Seraiki option.

He also cited less demand in the market to be the cause of lack of students’ interest. Although the provincial education department had approved eight posts of lecturers in Seraiki, the finance department notified only two in 1998 — one at the SE college Bahawalpur and the other at the Government College in Multan.

He said 100 students opted for Seraiki as either elective or optional subject every year at the SE college while 35 opted for it in Multan soon after the approval of syllabus by the BZU a couple of months ago.

He said the BZU authorities would have to overcome ‘shyness’ to give Seraiki language and literature its due. He claimed Seraiki was next to Sindhi as far as number of annual publications were concerned.

Prof Chandio urged the BZU to clearly define the objectives of the Seraiki centre and print more books. “There is no need to set out on the journey already covered by the people for their Seraiki identity,” Prof Chandio advised.