February 4, 2003	Tuesday	Zul Hijjah 2,1423

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WASHINGTON, Feb 3: President Pervez Musharraf still enjoys a firm control over both the military and civil establishments, including the ISI, and apparently there’s no clash between the civilian government and its military backers.

This is how a senior US official assessed the current political situation in Pakistan at a recent briefing at the US State Department. The briefing “given to a group of journalists accredited to the State Department” covered a wide range of issues, from the “infiltration” of militants into occupied Kashmir to Pakistan’s alleged assistance to North Korea’s nuclear programme.

The assessment, given during the presence of Foreign Minister Khurshid Mehmood Kasuri in Washington, was meant to give American journalists a better understanding of the ground situation in Pakistan.

Since the registration of Pakistanis with the Immigration and Naturalization Service has also become a major issue in the United States, it figured prominently at the briefing as well.

The registration process, the official said, could affect thousands of people. “These are the people who send home $100 a month or less. But for their families this small amount makes the difference between having or not having food on the table, and sending or not sending a kid to school. So they are extremely worried.”

A large-scale deportation of Pakistanis from the United States, the official said, could also affect Pakistan’s economy, adding that it were remittances from American and the Middle East that helped boost the country’s foreign exchange reserves.

Remittances from America, the official said, increased manifold after the 9-11 terrorist attacks in the United States which forced the US officials to block illegal channels of money transfer. Now the Pakistanis are using banks and other legal financial institutions for sending money home and thus the dollars are going right into the coffers of the Pakistan government.

“The issue also has a political repercussion and is seen as the first major test for the newly-elected government. That’s why officials in Islamabad are so worried.”

In reply to a question whether religious parties can unseat President Musharraf, the official said that in the recent elections, religious parties showed a significance progress. The Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal has a significant number of seats in the National Assembly and runs government in the NWFP.

The MMA does issue hard-hitting statements against both President Musharraf and the PML-Q government but on major issues it cooperates with the government. It is not in a position to pose any major threat to the military or civil establishments.

The briefing was told that most Pakistanis remained convinced that President Musharraf’s decision to join the US-led coalition against terrorism was a good decision. Some worried about America’s commitment to a long-term engagement with Pakistan and also expressed concerns about campaigns to arrest the Taliban and Al Qaeda fugitives. But there’s no serious move to force Pakistan to break up its ties with the United States or pullout of the international coalition against terrorism.

HOT PURSUITS: The official said the Pakistani and US troops are pursuing Al Qaeda and Taliban fugitives in an area where troops were never deployed before. Their presence has all sorts of repercussions. The Pakhtoon tribesmen are fiercely independent. They keep fighting their own little wars. The tribal belt has also been used for smuggling between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The route is used for drug trafficking as well. So the deployment of troops in this area has a direct impact on all these. That’s why it is such a sensitive issue, one of the issues “we better not talk about. But we are satisfied with the cooperation we are getting from Pakistan”.

PAKISTAN’S PRESENCE IN THE UNSC: “No,” the official said, “we are not concerned about Pakistan being in the Security Council during the Iraq crisis”. Pakistanis have their own concerns about the situation. They believe that a war in the Middle East will have a negative impact on their economy. It can reduce remittances sent by overseas Pakistani workers. But they are more concerned about its impact on oil prices. An increase in the price of petroleum products can have a destabilizing effect on their economy.

MADARIS: The official said the government campaign to reform the religious schools had not been very successful. Last summer, they tried to register the Madaris but did not succeed. Foreign students, however, have been registered. Many still come from the Central Asian republics.

INFILTRATION: “Yes,” the official claimed, “infiltration (across the Line of Control) is happening and it has not been stopped despite the pledges to do so. We are trying to make sure that everybody understands the repercussions. Pakistan did try to stop it last summer but it has come back up again. Perhaps, it is never going to stop”.

Apparently, the Pakistanis have allowed it to continue because they were expecting some positive reaction from India, such as resumption of bilateral talks. In absence of this the infiltration has continued, the official said.

COOPERATION WITH N. KOREA: The official said the Pakistanis had assured the US that it (the nuclear cooperation) was not happening and would not happen. “I will refer you to the Secretary of State’s statement on this subject (who indicated that Washington was willing to forget if it happened in the past)”.