January 20, 2003	Monday	Ziqa'ad 16, 1423

RIYADH: Throughout the Arab world, from Egypt and Syria to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, every one seems to be aware of the fact that the war against Iraq needs to be averted. The results of any such war would be disastrous for the region, every government leader agrees. All sort of proposals are being put forward. Turkey’s new Prime Minister Abdullah Gul has proposed a conference of the five major Arab powers so as to coordinate their efforts in averting the war. Some also say that a proposal is being discussed so as to provide Saddam with a honourable exit from the scene.

But despite all that, could the war against Iraq be finally averted? No one has a definite answer to the question. Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah says he has a hunch that the war against Iraq may finally be averted, but even then he is not fully sure if this could be averted. If Prince Abdullah were not sure of how events would unfold in the region, who else could be.

People seem to be confused all around, apparently for the reason, that no one is sure here of the actual reasons for the impending war that may generate instability throughout the region. Very few people in the Arab streets, from Damascus to Cairo and Abu Dhabi to Qatar and Riyadh believe that disarmament of Iraq is the real issue behind the US rhetoric to use force against Baghdad.

Still few are ready to believe that it is the removal of Saddam from power in Baghdad that is behind all that is happening today. Had the removal of Saddam the real issue, it could have been achieved more than a decade back, when the US forces ejected Saddam and his machinery from Kuwait, many here believe. Some see Saddam as a man, who was nurtured by the US, like many in the world including the now infamous Osama bin Laden, to achieve their own objectives.

Arab streets are filled with conspiracy theories. Many feel that the sole global power wants to ensure the supremacy of Israel in the region and therefore is ready to go all out against any power who could be any threat to it, even if in the distant future. All this confusion is also because any action against Baghdad does not fit into the ongoing anti-terrorism campaign of the sole global power in the current unipolar world. Baghdad had apparently no links with the 911 events, not it had apparently harboured any of those blamed for the events of the day, that seem to have changed the world altogether. Indeed the Baathist regime of Saddam Hussein would be the last to be in truck with the ideology pursued by UBL and his team.

It’s oil; many here in the streets of Arab strongly feel that is about to bring another catastrophe and another war in the region.

The former Indian Prime Minister Inder Kumar Gujral, a heavy weight in many senses during a recent visit to the UAE had disclosed that during one of his meetings with the then US Secretary of State, he was bluntly told that the US was not ready to compromise on its oil security for the sake of a dictator.

During a protest rally in Bahrain last Friday against the US war on Iraq, the protesters were also chanting slogans, “No to war for oil”.

Protesting Qataris this Friday also believed the same; the real reason behind the US moves was oil and the rest is all eyewash. Yussef Muhammad Al-Sayegh, a Qatari civil servant insisted that the Iraqi oil is driving the US military build-up. “The goal of the Americans is not Saddam Hussein but to get their hands on the oil,” he insisted.

Theories of all sorts are being propounded. There is no dearth of analysts both in the region and in the West, who feel that the US wants to lessen its dependence, on Saudi Arabia as much as possible. The US presence in the Kingdom ever since the Gulf war was definitely to ensure that security, many here strongly believe.

Post 911, the right-wingers within the US administration are of the stated view that their dependence on Saudi Arabia needs to be lessened. Some even go to the extent of pulling out of the Kingdom, exactly what Osama bin Laden and the theologians around him have been proposing.

However, before pulling out of the Kingdom, they need another energy source to ensure security of energy supplies. After all the Americans do not want to change their life styles of pumping gasoline into their big cars at reasonable prices and their government seems to be ready to go all out, to the extent of even waging a war in the far flung Middle East, to ensure the continuity of their consumption-based life style.

Invading Iraq, sitting on the second largest proven oil reserves in the region, could solve the US problem. This would not only ensure security of energy supplies but could also provide them with the opportunity to move out of Saudi Arabia, if they feel so, at any given point in time.

If former President Clinton could say to his predecessor, the elder Bush; it is the economy man, economy, one could safely vouch that it’s oil, man, oil for the clouds of war that engulfs the region today.

And if it is indeed oil, then it’s not difficult to deduce that averting such a war may not be an easy proposition. The Arab world is obviously faced with stark choices.