January 4, 2003	Saturday	Shawwal 30, 1423

MOSCOW: There is one ground rule in Russia’s war against Chechnya: Things never work out as the Kremlin plans.

After three years of war in the Caucasian republic, President Vladimir Putin is hoping for a solution to the conflict in 2003.

But this undertaking threatens to undo not only the rebel opposition but also the poor coordination of the Russian authorities.

The most recent example is the Russian Foreign Ministry’s announcement that it is to end a monitoring mission in Chechnya by the Organization for Security and Cooperation (OSCE).

To some extent, the Chechen terrorists achieved their goal with the brutal hostage drama in a Moscow theatre late last year.

But instead of reacting with mere military force in the Caucasus, Putin has introduced a parallel political process. The political plan will allow the war-weary Chechen electorate to vote on a new constitution in March.

Ahmed Kadyrov, a cleric and current head of administration, looks to be a top contender for the role of president in Autumn 2003.

Ever since then “normalization” has been a keyword for the Kremlin, even if Russian troops only have part-time run of the war zone. Only after the completion of minesweeping work between late morning and sundown can they go outside their barracks.

To mark the supposed peace the authorities have also disbanded a tent camp for refugees in the neighbouring republic of Ingushetia.

The rebels and those chased underground by President Aslan Maskhadov will remain outside the Kremlin’s solution “Peace without negotiation”.

Indeed the bombing of the government building in Grozny before the New Year, which left at least 83 people dead, shows that the rebels will not allow themselves to be pushed to the edge.

The West has continuously called on Moscow to negotiate with Maskhadov or his emissary Ahmed Sakajev. Indeed Putin’s other solution proposals were rejected at the outset. German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder recently praised Putin for his stance at a meeting in Moscow.

Diplomats in Moscow see comparisons with the peace solutions achieved in Afghanistan through the Loya Jirga. Behind the scenes there is talk of sending international observers to monitor the referendum. The West has also set aside “peace money” to rebuild war- torn Chechnya.

In this setting the ending of the OSCE mission does not seem right. Russia wants to stop observation of the human rights situation and confine the foreign representatives to humanitarian aid. The OSCE does not agree.

Moscow’s Foreign Ministry has picked on its weakest adversary. Reports of human rights violations in Chechnya are not delivered by OSCE but by groups like the Russian memorial or the International Human Rights Watch.

The UN Commission on Refugees (UNHCR), the Red Cross and private organizations already offer humanitarian help.

The Council of Europe in Strasbourg is keeping alive the memory of the almost forgotten war in the Caucasus. The Russian Foreign Ministry is coming under fire from many corners, including German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, to allow the OSCE mission continue.

Putin’s peace plan could also be endangered by a recent decision from Russia’s military court, which ruled that a senior Russian army officer Yuri Budanov was insane when he murdered a teenage Chechen girl.

Budanov escaped jail and was sentenced to a psychiatric hospital in a decision that left the people of Chechnya shocked. It signalled the arbitrary nature of the army and left many doubting their ability to conduct impartial referendum proceedings.—dpa