| January 2, 2003 | Thursday | Shawwal 28, 1423 |
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Iraq: the human cost
Tail-enders’ plight
THE State Bank’s report on the performance of the economy during the first quarter (July-September) of the fiscal year 2002-3, issued on Monday, sounds quite confident about the economy’s growth prospects during the year. It, however, cautions the elected government that this optimism is contingent on the continuance of the policies which the military government had pursued during the last three years of its rule. The central bank warns against adoption of populist policies, probably hinting at the proposed relief packages which may involve subsidies on electricity and certain food items. At the same time, it advises the government not to give up fiscal discipline, institutional restructuring and good governance practices. Implicit in the last is perhaps is a reference to the proposed allocation of Rs 10 million to each of the MNAs (the practice may be extended to the MPAs as well) for their discretionary development projects untied to any overall planning or supervision. The central bank is of the view that the economy has freed itself of any immediate external pressures for payment and is now poised for a shift towards high growth, employment generation and poverty reduction.
The economy, during the period under review, seemed to be on track to reach the year’s target of a GDP growth of 4.5 per cent. This projection is based on the expected better performance of agriculture in view of the substantial rise in water availability. During the July-September period, large-scale manufacturing recorded a weak growth of 2.2 per cent. This was in marked contrast with higher corporate earnings growth, an impressive increase in the export of manufactured goods, a rise in domestic sales tax collections and an increase in the import of machinery and raw materials. In view of these inconsistencies in growth, the State Bank has expressed reservations about the reliability of the data relating to industrial production. Partial explanation for the wide variance may lie in the fact that the large-scale manufacturing data for the fiscal 2002-3 relate to the basket of 70 industries while previously it consisted of 95 industries. However, lower bank credit to the private sector confirms slower growth in the industrial sector. The inconsistency in the industrial production data is compounded by a report of the ministry of finance, released on Monday, in which the growth is shown to be 5.2 per cent during the first quarter of the current financial year.
The external sector continued to remain buoyant with remittances leading the growth, with a rise of 55 per cent over the corresponding period of last year. Next in importance were large payments made by the US for logistic support. On the other hand, trade deficit figures saw little change in absolute terms. However, a welcome aspect was that half of the import growth was in terms of machinery — which suggests industrial recovery. Another area where exceptional growth was recorded was the government sector where tax and non-tax revenues both rose by 33 per cent as compared to the corresponding period last year. Tax revenues increased by 22.5 per cent and non-tax revenues by 81.8 per cent. As growth in expenditure was contained at 9.3 per cent, the overall budget deficit registered a noticeable improvement. An impressive growth in revenue collection provides an opportunity to divert greater resources to the construction of infrastructure and development of the social sectors for purposes of employment generation and reduction in poverty.
WITH the US seemingly determined to launch an attack on Iraq, humanitarian agencies working in the country are warning of the huge human cost of a war. With Iraq’s infrastructure already in a shambles following years of harsh sanctions and the food supply situation highly precarious in parts of the country, aid agencies fear that any further disruption could cost tens of thousands of lives. Apart from civilian casualties directly caused by an outbreak of war, disruption in the supply of electricity, food and water could also cause a large number of deaths. One aid agency has predicted as many as 100,000 civilian deaths in case of a prolonged conflict, warning that “the casualties will mount very fast, especially when indirect deaths, from disease or as a result of the expected displacement of populations, are taken into account.” Winter can only make life even more difficult for the hapless population.
Aid workers say that the health care system and road network are already under such severe strain that any further damage or disruption will make humanitarian work well-nigh impossible. If roads and bridges are destroyed, it will become extremely difficult to transport food from central and southern Iraq, where it is stored, to the remote north which is the most vulnerable area. The greatest worry is that a war will badly affect government rations and the UN’s oil-for-food programme on which a staggering two-thirds of Iraqis depend for their survival. Iraq will clearly find it next to impossible to extract or load oil during a war. This would lead to the collapse of the UN programme, which was designed to compensate Iraq for the humanitarian consequences of sanctions. It is still time for the US to look beyond its obsession with regime change in Iraq and to step back from the brink. Leaving aside the political dimensions of any future war, the sheer scale of the humanitarian crisis an attack could trigger should be enough to make Washington think again.
THE Punjab government’s drive to desilt distributaries and improve supply to tail-enders is an overdue move. Considerable manpower and resources are being spent on the initiative, which involves cleaning up 23,000 miles of canals and 19,000 miles of distributaries. Desilting plays an obviously important role in increasing crop yields. Low availability of water is attributed to heavy conveyance losses estimated at 25 per cent. The losses from the outlet to the field have been found to be about 22 per cent. Of the water received at the farm gate, 41 per cent is lost in the fields. Often, water is not available at critical stages of cultivation and nurturing of crops. Manipulation and practices such as unauthorized and illegal cuts by influential land owners are also responsible for reduced water pressure and disregard of the needs of tail-enders. Moreover, at a time when the ground water table is falling as a result of overuse and the long-running drought-like situations, emphasis must be laid on proper use of surface water resources. Water lost during transit can be saved through lining of canals and water channels.
Recent efforts to improve efficiency of water courses and canals has brought some improvement, but much remains to be done to address the problems resulting from dependence on canal irrigation. Farmers upstream often draw more water than they need only to deprive the tail-enders of their legitimate share. By facilitating an increased flow, desilting can help promote equitable distribution, but only if it is carried out on a sustained basis and not in fits and starts. Given the hurdles involved, extra efforts will have to be made to safeguard the rights of farmers whose lands are far away from canal heads. Not only should growers be directly involved in the campaign to protect the share of tail-enders, corruption of the irrigation staff and illegal practices of the influential landlords should be more vigorously checked.