December 20, 2002	Friday	Shawwal 15, 1423

GENEVA: This year, which saw an increase in the Earth’s average surface temperature, is the second warmest in the 160 years since instrumental measurements of temperatures have been recorded, reports the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

Another notable weather trait of 2002 is the reappearance of the phenomenon known as El Niqo, though in a more moderate version than its most recent occurrence, in 1997-1998.

Since 1900, the planet’s average surface temperature has risen 0.6 degrees Celsius, and the temperatures recorded this year, through late November, were a half-degree higher than the annual average from 1961 to 1990.

As a result, 2002 replaced 2001 as being the second hottest year — after 1998 — of the 20th century.

The exceptional readings on thermometers in the last few years are not isolated incidents. “Clearly, for the past 25 or 26 years, the warming has been accelerating,” said WMO Climate Programme director Kenneth Davidson, adding that the rate of increase “is unprecedented in the last thousand years.”

This warming has been verified through ice core samples, seabed samples and tree ring samples, Davidson explained.

The rate of warming is the most noteworthy aspect of the phenomenon. Davidson admitted that he is surprised at the rate of temperature increases.

“Personally, I would say it isn’t what I expected,” he told a press conference as he presented the WMO report on Tuesday. “I think that everyone is surprised to see this rate of increase” in the average world temperatures.

The phenomenon is being tracked by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which is made up of scientists specializing in studying aspects related to global warming.

In its the third assessment report, the IPCC states that the world is warming at unprecedented rates and it is “likely” that human activities are influencing this phenomenon.

“And I would say that certainly is the opinion of the members of the WMO as well,” the United Nations agency entrusted with research and information on climate phenomenon, said Davidson.

The warming trend will persist unless additional steps are taken to curb greenhouse gas emissions, which contribute to retaining heat in the Earth’s atmosphere, according to WMO assistant secretary-general Hong Yan.

The WMO annual report, which Yan presented on Tuesday in Geneva, notes the reappearance in 2002 of conditions in the tropical Pacific that are known to give rise to El Niqo.

The El Niqo event occurs every three to seven years, when the sea-surface temperature over a large area of the equatorial Pacific, off Australia, becomes warmer than normal, and this current of warmer water moves eastwards, towards South America.

The presence of the current alters the winds and the climate in general, and can cause weather extremes, including torrential rains and drought, in the Pacific region.

Climatologists explain that El Niqo is only one stage of a characteristic cycle of changes that occur in this region, and can be likened to a pendulum. An El Niqo event occurs when the pendulum reaches its maximum point.

The two relatively recent El Niqo experiences that are considered the most intense in history occurred in 1982-1983 and 1997-1998, causing the extremes of drought and flooding, with devastating consequences for humans and for economies.—Dawn/The InterPress News Service.