December 19, 2002	Thursday	Shawwal 14, 1423

ANKARA: As tension mounts over the possibility of a US led military attack on Iraq, Turkey has found, according to recent public opinion polls some 80 per cent of Turks are against a war in Iraq, a view that is echoed by the new government in Ankara.

At the same time, however, Turkey has realized that its close relations with the US could mean it has no choice but to support its NATO ally.

While the Turkish General Staff has denied it is preparing for military action, Prime Minister Abdullah Gul admitted in an interview with the Milliyet newspaper on Tuesday that Turkey could be roped into supporting US efforts.

“Although we don’t wish for it at all, if there is an operation, of course it interests us. We are already in it,” Gul said.

Foreign Minister Yasar Yakis went a step further recently, saying that although he hoped “no stone would be unturned” in the search for a peaceful solution, if it came down to a war “of course we would support the United States”.

Turkey has no love for Saddam Hussein but fears that a war could lead to more troubles than it solves. In particular, it fears that Kurds in northern Iraq could declare independence, a move which could lead to Turkey’s restive Kurds reigniting tears that a war could lead to another Kurdish uprising. Such a rebellion at the end of the Gulf war failed resulting in hundreds of thousands of Kurds fleeing Iraq, with many heading for Turkey, which was woefully unprepared to deal with them.

This time aid agencies see the warning signs and preparations are already under way. Omer Tasli, head of the Turkish Red Crescent Disasters and Operations Office said that camps for up to 70,000 refugees are being planned, although the tide of Kurdish refugees is not expected to be as big as in 1991.

Leading figures in the southeast and across Turkey are also concerned over the economic consequences of any war.

According to Kudbettin Arzu, chairman of the Chamber of Commerce in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir, Turkey has lost 50 to 55 billion dollars-worth of trade since the Gulf War due to the trade embargo on Iraq.

He says the effects of the embargo have been felt not just by the Iraqi people but by the east and southeast of Turkey and talk of war has made things worse.

“For the past year we (in the southeast) have already been experiencing the downside of a possible operation,” Arzu said. “Because of the discussions on whether a war will take place or not, tourism, investments such as mine company projects, and long term plans have all been affected by this instability.”

Feridun Celik, the mayor of Diyarbakir concurs: “Turkey’s east and southeast region has been hurt so much by this situation (since the Gulf War). Trade has stopped because of this ... but we hope for a democratic transformation (in Iraq),” he said.

The economic pain of war is also bound to hit Turkey nationwide, as it emerges from its worst recession since the Second World War.

Tourism in particular would be hit hard. The tourism industry has been growing at a remarkable pace in the last 10 years. In 2001 it contributed 13.6 per cent of Turkey’s foreign currency earnings and with $8.1 billion in revenues it made up 5.5 per cent of the Gross National Product.

But there is still hope of ending the sanctions against Iraq and reviving trade opportunities in the southeast.

That, however, is in Washington’s hands, not Ankara’s.—dpa