November 16, 2002	Saturday	Ramazan 10, 1423

LONDON: If there must be war, let it be short and decisive.

This is the silent prayer of Arab rulers who fear the popular unrest that an invasion of Iraq might trigger, but dare not offend the United States, however much they disagree with the way it is pursuing its self-declared war on terror.

“Not a single Arab country is ready to hurt its relations with the Americans for the sake of the Iraqis or for any other reason,” said Lebanese journalist Khairallah Khairallah.

Arab foreign ministers welcomed last week’s UN Security Council resolution demanding Iraq disarm or face serious consequences. Saudi and Kuwaiti officials also voiced relief after Baghdad formally accepted the resolution on Wednesday.

Yet Arab governments know the spectre of a US-led war to rid Iraq of its alleged arsenal of doomsday weapons and topple Iraqi President Saddam Hussein still lurks.

The Arab world’s mostly unelected leaders are haunted by uncertainty about what military action might spark in a region already inflamed by US support for Israel in its conflict with the Palestinians. They dread becoming targets of popular wrath.

“If there is an Iraq attack, it will affect everyone and lead to acts of terrorism and violence, which might not happen immediately, but it will give the opportunity to terrorist groups,” Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak warned.

The dilemma is especially acute for Saudi Arabia, as shown by its flip-flops over whether US forces will be allowed to use its bases, airspace or territory for a strike on Iraq.

The kingdom has endured a year of pressure since it emerged that 15 of the 19 suicide hijackers who carried out the September 11 attacks on the United States were Saudis.

OSAMA RESURFACES: Evidence from an audio tape aired this week that their mentor, Saudi-born Osama bin Laden, is still alive and planning fresh violence must have occasioned more shudders in Riyadh.

Another Saudi analyst said feelings could turn ugly if Arabs began seeing footage of Iraqi civilian casualties on their television screens night after night, in addition to the now-staple images of Palestinians suffering at Israeli hands.

In Egypt, officials said public protests were likely to be muted because most people were resigned to an Iraq war. Islamist lawyer Montasser Zayat did not disagree, but said that unrest, once triggered, could take unpredictable forms. “If the street moves, it will be heavy and unplanned,” he said.

Arab rulers may squirm at the prospect of forcible “regime change” and the risk that Iraq might disintegrate on ethnic or religious lines once Saddam’s iron fist has been removed.

But many have quietly sought to turn the necessity of cooperating with the US into a virtue.—Reuters