November 15, 2002	Friday	Ramazan 9, 1423

WASHINGTON: Sometime after the first of the year, residents of Baghdad could find some new programming on their FM radio dial: a soothing Arabic voice urging them to remain in their homes or away from the approaching US troops who will liberate them from Saddam Hussein.

Meanwhile, the faxes or cell phones of Iraqi military and security officers may whir or chirp with more explicit and personal messages: “We know who you are. Lay down your arms or else.”

Top Pentagon officials and members of the Iraqi opposition are now crafting what could be the most widespread and complex psychological operations campaign mounted by the American military since the Vietnam War, should President Bush give the order to invade Iraq, said defence officials and retired psy-ops officers.

“If you can minimize the conflict by way of information warfare, that’s a significant thing,” said a source familiar with recent psy-ops discussions that have included Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz and Undersecretary Douglas Feith. “Communicating with them is a very high priority.”

The ambitious plan includes sending targeted radio messages to the groups that make up the 5 million residents of Baghdad, a polyglot of urbane Sunni Muslims, impoverished Shia Muslims and pockets of anti-foreign nationalists. In addition, though Iraq is a modern and secular country, there are elements of fundamentalism in both Muslim communities.

Another part of the operation will be to persuade members of Saddam’s military and security forces not to resist the invading allied force.

Keeping the citizens of Baghdad on the sidelines will be an important part of any US military operation in the Iraqi capital, a city that could quickly turn into a bloody battlefield should Saddam’s forces dig in and fight and civilians get caught in the mix, officials said.

But some military analysts and retired officers are cautioning that not all psychological operations employed in past conflicts have had good results. Moreover, reaching the different groups within Iraq and cutting through anti-Western feelings or anger over the decade-old UN sanctions may be difficult, they said.

“I think it’s going to be a terribly challenging effort. There are all kinds of different audiences. You’ve got to somehow figure out how to reach people,” said retired Army Col. Charles P. Borchini, who commanded the 4th Psychological Operations Group during the US-led bombing campaign against Serbia. The group, based at Fort Bragg, N.C., takes the lead in writing scripts, beaming radio and TV messages and publishing newspapers aimed at foreign foes and their civilian counterparts.

William Arkin, a military analyst, said that if the United States invades Iraq, “bombs are going to do the talking,” rather than any psychological operation that attempts to influence the entire country. Some elements of Iraqi society might not trust an American-led campaign to set up a new government, said Arkin, who also doubted US operatives would be able to reach any Iraqi officers with the “Gucci methods” of cell-phone calls or faxes.

Still, Iraqi opposition officials and longtime observers of Iraq contend that after nearly a quarter-century of living under a brutal dictator, strong support exists within the country for an overthrow of Saddam, even if it has to be carried out by the United States.

“Nobody wants a continuation of the regime. They want a return to normalcy,” said Phebe Marr, a former professor at the National Defence University. “I think they want the job done and over with, and they don’t want any long-term occupation.”

Marr said US forces must send a simple and straightforward message: “We are not occupiers, we are liberators. We are going to help you set up your own government as rapidly as possible.”

Said an Iraqi opposition official, “These folks don’t support Saddam. What’s necessary is to explain to them what’s happening and what they can do.”

Meanwhile, officials with the opposition Iraqi National Congress are providing the Pentagon with cell phone numbers, fax numbers and home addresses of key Iraqi security officials in an effort to drive a wedge between them and Saddam. The message would be, “We know who you are. It’s definitely in your interest to lay low,” said the source familiar with the Pentagon plans. “We are working actively to get that message to them when it counts.”

US military plans for city fighting say that “the key to success” might lie in the ability to “influence the thoughts and opinions of adversaries and noncombatants,” according to “Doctrine for Joint Urban Operations,” a Joint Chiefs of Staff publication that was updated in September. To do this, US forces must seize what the plan terms “the information environment.”

Retired Army Maj. Gen. Robert H. Scales Jr., who has written extensively on urban warfare, said it’s vital in any conflict to immediately capture and control the sources of information for civilians. “The images have to be ours, not (Saddam’s),” said Scales. “Mao said the surest way to win a war is to separate the army from its people.”

Radio transmissions are expected to be the most effective way of getting the message out, officials said, since televisions aren’t nearly as widespread as radios. Moreover, some of the initial targets of US warplanes would include TV transmitters and other communications facilities, thereby preventing Saddam from contacting the population or his military once the war starts.—Dawn/The LAT-W.P News Service/The Baltimore Sun (c)The Washington Post.