November 14, 2002	Thursday	Ramazan 8, 1423

LONDON: Syria’s surprise vote for the UN Security Council resolution demanding that Iraq disarm showed that President Bashar al-Assad may have inherited some of his father’s skill at playing a weak hand well.

Assad’s decision to back the resolution, which gives Iraq a last chance to disarm or face “serious consequences”, stunned Syrians suspicious of what they see as a US-orchestrated prelude to an invasion of a neighbouring Arab country.

But analysts said the youthful president, who succeeded his formidable father Hafez al-Assad two years ago, had chosen a course that he could portray as defending Iraqi, Syrian and Arab interests, without exposing his country to US wrath.

“I think Hafez would have done the same,” Murhaf Jouejati, a Syrian scholar at Washington’s Middle East Institute, said. “I’m thrilled to see some political maturity coming out of Damascus.”

Syria, the only Arab country now on the 15-nation Security Council, had been widely expected to abstain, or even oppose, the resolution adopted on Friday after weeks of negotiation.

Rapprochement with Iraq is, after all, Syria’s main foreign policy change under Bashar, who has set aside the rancorous rivalries between two states which share Baathist political ideology to build lucrative trade ties with Baghdad.

Yet rather than take a lonely stand which would leave it powerless to alter the outcome, Syria went with the flow, saying it had worked with other council members for changes in the US-British draft to ensure the resolution did not amount to a green light for war.

The resolution asks the council to convene to consider its response if Iraq fails to cooperate with UN arms inspectors, but contains no automatic “trigger” for military action — and Syria says it received assurances on this point.

CONTRAST WITH GULF CRISIS: It is barely conceivable that Syria would take part in any military strike on Iraq, even one that had UN blessing, though it has told Baghdad to cooperate with weapons inspections.

Twelve years ago, in different circumstances, it sent troops to Saudi Arabia with other Arab contingents within a US-led coalition formed to expel Iraqi occupation troops from Kuwait.

Washington recompensed then-President Hafez al-Assad with a free hand to achieve supremacy in Lebanon, as well as a US promise to the Arabs to sponsor peace negotiations with Israel. Syria also received substantial funds from Gulf Arab countries.

No such rewards beckon this time round.

Abdel Bari Atwan, editor-in-chief of the London-based Arabic daily al-Quds al-Arabi, argues that, in Arab eyes, Syria’s support for the Iraq resolution could irreparably damage its cherished image as the principled defender of Arab causes.

“The Gulf Arabs know they are US tools, but Syrians are not used to this,” he said, adding that Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states would now feel freer to let the United States use their bases and airspace for an invasion of Iraq.

However, other analysts say Syria has saved face and can emerge with its Arab nationalist credentials intact by insisting its motive was to spare Iraq an invasion seen as promoting what Damascus views as US-Israeli designs for regional hegemony.

“It won’t damage their image because everyone knows they are not backing the Iraqis from the heart,” said Lebanese journalist Khairallah Khairallah. “The Syrians know what the Iraqi regime is and have suffered more than others from its foolish actions.”—Reuters